BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s2

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 594

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

191

of 198 predictions shown

direction hit

55.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1384

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0141

actual -0.0054

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.054285	0.053555	-1.34%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.054325	0.05363	-1.28%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.049699	-0.85%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.047131	-0.49%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048579	-0.52%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.052468	-1.10%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.054789	-2.16%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044517	-0.19%	0.054285	+21.72%	0.1757	✗	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043878	+0.14%	0.054325	+23.99%	0.1869	✓	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047632	-0.49%	0.050125	+4.72%	0.0527	✗	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.054245	-0.85%	0.047365	-13.43%	0.1367	✓	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.065163	-1.62%	0.048835	-26.27%	0.2755	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.066866	-1.73%	0.05305	-22.04%	0.2187	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.067333	-1.74%	0.056	-18.28%	0.1756	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.064938	-1.56%	0.0446	-32.39%	0.3793	✓	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.066252	-1.83%	0.043815	-35.08%	0.3998	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.065826	-1.94%	0.047865	-28.70%	0.2965	✓	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.061315	-1.37%	0.05471	-12.00%	0.0779	✓	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.061635	-1.25%	0.066235	+6.12%	0.0984	✗	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.061145	-1.17%	0.068045	+9.98%	0.1243	✗	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.062158	-1.09%	0.068525	+9.05%	0.1162	✗	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.064472	-1.15%	0.065965	+1.13%	0.0527	✗	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.065399	-1.15%	0.06749	+2.01%	0.0341	✗	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.066151	-1.12%	0.06713	+0.34%	0.0010	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.066507	-1.02%	0.06217	-7.47%	0.0879	✓	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.070082	-1.24%	0.062415	-12.04%	0.1287	✓	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.070036	-1.54%	0.06187	-13.02%	0.1261	✓	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.068351	-1.25%	0.06284	-9.21%	0.0866	✓	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.066239	-0.97%	0.065225	-2.49%	0.0182	✓	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063271	-0.60%	0.06616	+3.94%	0.0496	✗	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.068467	-0.66%	0.0669	-2.94%	0.0062	✓	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.067808	-0.55%	0.06719	-1.45%	0.0164	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.06556	-0.88%	0.07096	+7.28%	0.0530	✗	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.064948	-0.86%	0.071135	+8.59%	0.0657	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.06467	-0.78%	0.069215	+6.19%	0.0437	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.06212	-0.54%	0.06689	+7.09%	0.0170	✗	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.061179	-0.39%	0.06365	+3.63%	0.0194	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.062856	-0.54%	0.068925	+9.06%	0.0393	✗	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062426	-0.35%	0.06818	+8.84%	0.0462	✗	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061708	-0.20%	0.066145	+6.98%	0.0465	✗	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.063827	-0.32%	0.06551	+2.31%	0.0046	✗	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.064016	-0.36%	0.06518	+1.46%	0.0025	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060765	+0.29%	0.06246	+3.09%	0.0285	✓	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.062075	+0.23%	0.06142	-0.82%	0.0002	✓	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.067475	-0.29%	0.0632	-6.61%	0.0465	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.067274	-0.25%	0.062645	-7.11%	0.0652	✓	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.067217	-0.28%	0.06183	-8.27%	0.0603	✓	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.068452	-0.44%	0.06403	-6.87%	0.0493	✓	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.068458	-0.29%	0.064245	-6.42%	0.0456	✓	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.069724	+0.13%	0.06059	-12.98%	0.1070	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.066678	-0.88%	0.06193	-7.94%	0.0805	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.066853	-0.91%	0.06767	+0.30%	0.0047	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.068076	-0.44%	0.06744	-1.37%	0.0123	✓	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.067371	-0.69%	0.067405	-0.64%	0.0176	✓	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.070326	-0.39%	0.068755	-2.61%	0.0330	✓	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071255	-0.32%	0.068655	-3.95%	0.0494	✓	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.07385	+0.81%	0.06963	-4.95%	0.0652	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.072525	+0.43%	0.06727	-6.85%	0.0642	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.069109	+0.14%	0.067465	-2.24%	0.0168	✗	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.072671	+0.55%	0.068375	-5.40%	0.0583	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.073633	+0.25%	0.06784	-7.64%	0.0815	✗	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.074555	+0.16%	0.0706	-5.16%	0.0628	✗	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.091033	+0.11%	0.07148	-21.39%	0.2389	✗	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.082964	-1.44%	0.07326	-12.97%	0.1602	✓	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.078438	-2.86%	0.072215	-10.56%	0.1443	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.076799	-2.76%	0.06901	-12.62%	0.2048	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.075501	-2.48%	0.072275	-6.65%	0.1513	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.076236	-2.24%	0.07345	-5.82%	0.1549	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.077618	-2.70%	0.07444	-6.68%	0.1526	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.073803	-1.71%	0.09093	+21.09%	0.0863	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.074023	-1.79%	0.084175	+11.67%	0.0504	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.075178	-1.78%	0.080745	+5.49%	0.0124	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.075348	-1.71%	0.078975	+3.02%	0.0357	✗	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.07578	-2.02%	0.07742	+0.10%	0.0151	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.072786	-1.71%	0.077985	+5.31%	0.0915	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.075696	-1.97%	0.07977	+3.31%	0.0734	✗	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.076386	-1.93%	0.07509	-3.59%	0.0044	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.0822	-2.42%	0.075375	-10.52%	0.0766	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.07874	-2.20%	0.07654	-4.93%	0.0140	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.075617	-1.42%	0.07666	-0.07%	0.0196	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.075602	-1.15%	0.07734	+1.12%	0.0177	✗	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.075096	-1.02%	0.074055	-2.39%	0.0284	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.074687	-0.68%	0.077215	+2.69%	0.0114	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.078061	-1.24%	0.07789	-1.45%	0.0232	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.078118	-1.76%	0.08424	+5.94%	0.0802	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.078988	-1.51%	0.08051	+0.39%	0.0119	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.078264	-1.19%	0.07671	-3.16%	0.0220	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.078417	-1.13%	0.07648	-3.57%	0.0228	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.08533	-1.96%	0.07587	-12.83%	0.1017	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.083193	-1.64%	0.075195	-11.10%	0.0886	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.083038	-1.63%	0.07904	-6.37%	0.0392	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.075202	-0.96%	0.079515	+4.72%	0.0587	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.082919	-1.58%	0.080195	-4.81%	0.0144	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.084097	-1.54%	0.07921	-7.26%	0.0362	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.084542	-1.51%	0.079315	-7.60%	0.0529	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.08869	-1.73%	0.08704	-3.56%	0.0241	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.090498	-1.76%	0.08458	-8.18%	0.0616	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.090234	-1.62%	0.084415	-7.96%	0.0690	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.089792	-1.69%	0.07593	-16.87%	0.1866	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.087957	-1.69%	0.08425	-5.83%	0.0575	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.085954	-1.63%	0.08541	-2.25%	0.0254	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.093055	-1.76%	0.085835	-9.39%	0.1288	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.100038	-2.10%	0.09025	-11.68%	0.1175	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.096531	-1.80%	0.09212	-6.29%	0.0636	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.10182	-2.06%	0.09172	-11.77%	0.1010	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.107827	-3.22%	0.091335	-18.03%	0.1753	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.085514	-1.77%	0.08947	+2.77%	0.0114	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.083646	-1.64%	0.08738	+2.75%	0.0222	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.093029	-1.92%	0.094725	-0.13%	0.0400	✗	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.090707	-1.79%	0.102185	+10.64%	0.1170	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.090521	-1.63%	0.098305	+6.83%	0.0727	✗	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.093543	-1.49%	0.10396	+9.48%	0.0831	✗	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.09973	-1.48%	0.11142	+10.07%	0.0859	✗	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.124964	-4.26%	0.087055	-33.31%	0.4033	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.097054	-3.14%	0.08504	-15.13%	0.2042	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.080144	-1.36%	0.09485	+16.75%	0.1005	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.079297	-1.68%	0.09236	+14.52%	0.0943	✗	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.073957	-1.23%	0.09202	+22.90%	0.1731	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.066792	-0.33%	0.09496	+41.71%	0.3154	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.070767	-0.45%	0.101225	+42.39%	0.3316	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.082325	-1.31%	0.13053	+56.47%	0.4747	✗	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.096487	-3.02%	0.1002	+0.71%	0.0849	✗	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.092078	-2.30%	0.081245	-13.79%	0.0802	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.091418	-2.51%	0.08065	-13.99%	0.0801	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.086799	-1.87%	0.074875	-15.35%	0.0945	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.094966	-2.93%	0.06701	-31.51%	0.3029	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.092118	-3.37%	0.07109	-25.43%	0.2173	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.076622	-1.51%	0.08342	+7.23%	0.1394	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.075105	-1.35%	0.09949	+30.68%	0.3280	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.077008	-1.99%	0.094245	+19.94%	0.2379	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.070782	-1.07%	0.09377	+31.06%	0.3188	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.068596	-0.73%	0.08845	+28.00%	0.2573	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.073981	-1.25%	0.097835	+30.59%	0.2805	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.072216	-1.24%	0.09533	+30.37%	0.2886	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.063074	+0.34%	0.077795	+23.76%	0.1691	✓	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.064758	+0.17%	0.076135	+17.76%	0.1092	✓	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.064734	-0.01%	0.078575	+21.37%	0.1504	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.069742	-0.55%	0.07155	+2.02%	0.0066	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.066701	+0.45%	0.0691	+4.07%	0.0116	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.062941	+1.29%	0.07492	+20.57%	0.1410	✓	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.063511	+0.76%	0.07312	+16.01%	0.1442	✓	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.070203	+0.08%	0.06286	-10.39%	0.0745	✗	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.065217	+0.36%	0.06465	-0.51%	0.0750	✓	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.070478	-1.08%	0.06474	-9.14%	0.0435	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.070365	-1.38%	0.07013	-1.71%	0.1654	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.07533	-2.14%	0.0664	-13.74%	0.0868	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.074383	-2.58%	0.06214	-18.61%	0.0233	✓	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.060848	-0.07%	0.06303	+3.51%	0.1987	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.062007	-0.33%	0.07015	+12.75%	0.2957	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.061867	-0.50%	0.06498	+4.51%	0.2049	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.067796	-1.39%	0.07125	+3.63%	0.1395	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.067824	-0.99%	0.07135	+4.16%	0.1014	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.071341	-0.98%	0.076975	+6.84%	0.1192	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.070827	-0.38%	0.07635	+7.38%	0.1064	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.081965	-2.42%	0.06089	-27.51%	0.2508	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.07563	-1.33%	0.062215	-18.83%	0.1585	✓	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.070684	-0.12%	0.062175	-12.14%	0.1178	✓	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.07152	+0.04%	0.068755	-3.83%	0.0428	✗	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.070771	+0.47%	0.0685	-2.75%	0.0278	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.075946	+0.21%	0.07205	-4.93%	0.0371	✗	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.075405	+0.66%	0.0711	-5.09%	0.0184	✗	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.08637	-0.63%	0.084	-3.36%	0.0005	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.088471	-0.40%	0.07665	-13.71%	0.1284	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.107109	-3.09%	0.07077	-35.97%	0.3980	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.102216	-2.40%	0.07149	-31.74%	0.3304	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.096418	-1.87%	0.07044	-28.31%	0.2831	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.095023	-1.30%	0.07579	-21.27%	0.2103	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.090073	-0.01%	0.07491	-16.84%	0.1774	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.091638	-0.34%	0.08692	-5.48%	0.0593	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.088451	+0.46%	0.08883	+0.89%	0.0205	✓	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.090565	+0.05%	0.11052	+22.09%	0.2023	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.094122	-0.63%	0.10473	+10.57%	0.0920	✗	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.097716	-1.26%	0.09826	-0.71%	0.0254	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.113402	-2.57%	0.09627	-17.29%	0.1785	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.107948	-2.03%	0.09008	-18.24%	0.1955	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.109899	-2.20%	0.091955	-18.17%	0.2088	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.12603	-2.97%	0.088045	-32.22%	0.4083	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.134064	-3.18%	0.09052	-34.63%	0.4511	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.132284	-3.42%	0.09472	-30.84%	0.3657	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.130132	-2.75%	0.09896	-26.04%	0.2724	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.130276	-3.27%	0.11639	-13.58%	0.1259	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.119552	-2.55%	0.11018	-10.19%	0.0916	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.131062	-3.50%	0.11237	-17.27%	0.1283	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.112474	-1.97%	0.12989	+13.20%	0.1759	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.12434	-4.83%	0.13847	+5.99%	0.1080	✗	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.107766	-5.44%	0.136965	+20.19%	0.2202	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.083971	-2.59%	0.13381	+55.23%	0.4023	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.089208	-2.21%	0.134675	+47.64%	0.3869	✗	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.118217	-4.08%	0.122685	-0.46%	0.0324	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.149205	-10.20%	0.13582	-18.25%	0.1346	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.081579	-4.63%	0.11474	+34.14%	0.2970	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.072299	-3.79%	0.13065	+73.86%	0.5629	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.063492	-3.36%	0.11396	+73.46%	0.5661	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.058092	-2.38%	0.0862	+44.86%	0.3522	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.05381	-1.60%	0.09122	+66.81%	0.4922	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.053118	-1.37%	0.12325	+128.86%	0.7871	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.052931	-1.23%	0.16615	+210.04%	1.0981	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.060865	-1.74%	0.085535	+38.09%	0.2889	✗	1.00