BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s2

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +30d

assessed

167

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

61.7%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2716

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0491

actual -0.0910

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.049276	-3.11%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.048404	-3.43%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.044828	-5.36%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.045149	-7.55%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.048928	-7.77%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.052737	-5.83%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.041895	-6.07%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.041637	-4.97%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.045599	-4.73%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.052814	-3.47%	–	pending	–	–	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.063517	-4.10%	–	pending	–	–	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.064864	-4.67%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.065032	-5.10%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.062716	-4.93%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.064263	-4.78%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.064103	-4.51%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.059583	-4.16%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.059944	-3.96%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.059583	-3.70%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.060638	-3.50%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.06293	-3.52%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.064349	-2.74%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.065277	-2.43%	–	pending	–	–	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.065916	-1.90%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.069183	-2.50%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.0694	-2.44%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.067925	-1.86%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.065902	-1.48%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063205	-0.70%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.067667	-1.82%	–	pending	–	–	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.066983	-1.76%	0.05086	-25.40%	0.2435	✓	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.065723	-0.64%	0.050125	-24.22%	0.2851	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.065261	-0.38%	0.047365	-27.70%	0.3254	✓	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.064888	-0.45%	0.048835	-25.08%	0.2928	✓	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.061638	-1.32%	0.05305	-15.07%	0.1864	✓	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.060615	-1.31%	0.056	-8.82%	0.1183	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.062271	-1.47%	0.0446	-29.43%	0.3671	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.061801	-1.35%	0.043815	-30.06%	0.3614	✓	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.060782	-1.70%	0.047865	-22.59%	0.2716	✓	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.062763	-1.98%	0.05471	-14.56%	0.1614	✓	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.06299	-1.95%	0.066235	+3.10%	0.0146	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.059743	-1.40%	0.068045	+12.30%	0.0981	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.061302	-1.01%	0.068525	+10.65%	0.0907	✗	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.067137	-0.79%	0.065965	-2.52%	0.0383	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.067114	-0.48%	0.06749	+0.07%	0.0212	✓	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.067641	+0.35%	0.06713	-0.41%	0.0399	✗	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.06893	+0.25%	0.06217	-9.58%	0.1413	✗	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.068979	+0.47%	0.062415	-9.09%	0.1469	✗	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.070803	+1.68%	0.06187	-11.14%	0.1582	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.068249	+1.46%	0.06284	-6.59%	0.1299	✗	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.069094	+2.41%	0.065225	-3.32%	0.1081	✗	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.070685	+3.38%	0.06616	-3.24%	0.0926	✗	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.070454	+3.85%	0.0669	-1.39%	0.0915	✗	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.073925	+4.71%	0.06719	-4.83%	0.1289	✗	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.075031	+4.97%	0.07096	-0.73%	0.0985	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.077976	+6.44%	0.071135	-2.90%	0.1179	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.076479	+5.90%	0.069215	-4.15%	0.1309	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.072884	+5.61%	0.06689	-3.07%	0.1217	✗	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.076498	+5.84%	0.06365	-11.93%	0.2161	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.077367	+5.33%	0.068925	-6.16%	0.1714	✗	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.078081	+4.89%	0.06818	-8.41%	0.1991	✗	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.09399	+3.37%	0.066145	-27.26%	0.3677	✗	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.085949	+2.11%	0.06551	-22.17%	0.3118	✗	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.080014	-0.90%	0.06518	-19.28%	0.2776	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.075795	-4.03%	0.06246	-20.91%	0.2772	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.074436	-3.85%	0.06142	-20.67%	0.2804	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.075223	-3.54%	0.0632	-18.96%	0.2764	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.077122	-3.32%	0.062645	-21.47%	0.3266	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.072863	-2.97%	0.06183	-17.66%	0.2756	✓	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.073049	-3.09%	0.06403	-15.05%	0.2413	✓	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.074061	-3.24%	0.064245	-16.06%	0.2730	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.074093	-3.35%	0.06059	-20.96%	0.3190	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.074655	-3.47%	0.06193	-19.93%	0.3331	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.071322	-3.69%	0.06767	-8.62%	0.1886	✓	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.07389	-4.31%	0.06744	-12.66%	0.2315	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.074138	-4.82%	0.067405	-13.46%	0.2481	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.079978	-5.06%	0.068755	-18.38%	0.3177	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.07587	-5.76%	0.068655	-14.72%	0.2612	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.072335	-5.70%	0.06963	-9.23%	0.2106	✓	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.072054	-5.79%	0.06727	-12.04%	0.2099	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.071556	-5.69%	0.067465	-11.08%	0.1948	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.071942	-4.33%	0.068375	-9.07%	0.1972	✓	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.076292	-3.48%	0.06784	-14.17%	0.2551	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.076131	-4.26%	0.0706	-11.21%	0.2041	✓	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.077076	-3.89%	0.07148	-10.87%	0.2047	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.076242	-3.75%	0.07326	-7.51%	0.1793	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.076514	-3.53%	0.072215	-8.95%	0.1913	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.0835	-4.07%	0.06901	-20.71%	0.2920	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.0814	-3.76%	0.072275	-14.55%	0.2256	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.08117	-3.84%	0.07345	-12.99%	0.1990	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.073572	-3.11%	0.07444	-1.96%	0.0864	✓	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.080426	-4.54%	0.09093	+7.93%	0.0270	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.081709	-4.33%	0.084175	-1.45%	0.0242	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.082322	-4.09%	0.080745	-5.93%	0.0476	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.086373	-4.30%	0.078975	-12.49%	0.0895	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.08787	-4.61%	0.07742	-15.96%	0.1228	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.087143	-4.99%	0.077985	-14.97%	0.0976	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.086487	-5.31%	0.07977	-12.66%	0.0696	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.0845	-5.55%	0.07509	-16.07%	0.0992	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.082804	-5.24%	0.075375	-13.74%	0.0741	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.089228	-5.80%	0.07654	-19.20%	0.1723	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.096142	-5.91%	0.07666	-24.98%	0.2232	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.09302	-5.38%	0.07734	-21.33%	0.1869	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.098547	-5.21%	0.074055	-28.77%	0.2963	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.10472	-6.01%	0.077215	-30.70%	0.3315	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.08287	-4.81%	0.07789	-10.53%	0.0982	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.081212	-4.50%	0.08424	-0.94%	0.0244	✓	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.090149	-4.96%	0.08051	-15.12%	0.1205	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.087367	-5.41%	0.07671	-16.94%	0.1366	✓	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.086707	-5.77%	0.07648	-16.89%	0.1309	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.089208	-6.06%	0.07587	-20.10%	0.1757	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.094793	-6.35%	0.075195	-25.71%	0.2505	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.119291	-8.61%	0.07904	-39.45%	0.4640	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.09414	-6.05%	0.079515	-20.64%	0.2609	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.076232	-6.17%	0.080195	-1.29%	0.0155	✓	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.075772	-6.05%	0.07921	-1.79%	0.0174	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.070019	-6.49%	0.079315	+5.93%	0.0707	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.062482	-6.76%	0.08704	+29.89%	0.2559	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.06655	-6.39%	0.08458	+18.98%	0.1732	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.078185	-6.28%	0.084415	+1.19%	0.0363	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.09355	-5.97%	0.07593	-23.68%	0.2348	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.087715	-6.93%	0.08425	-10.61%	0.0645	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.087539	-6.65%	0.08541	-8.92%	0.0619	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.081999	-7.29%	0.085835	-2.96%	0.0339	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.090906	-7.08%	0.09025	-7.75%	0.0226	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.088753	-6.90%	0.09212	-3.37%	0.0130	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.072304	-7.06%	0.09172	+17.90%	0.2463	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.070452	-7.46%	0.091335	+19.96%	0.2884	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.072385	-7.88%	0.08947	+13.87%	0.2359	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.066011	-7.74%	0.08738	+22.12%	0.2912	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.064182	-7.12%	0.094725	+37.08%	0.4222	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.069259	-7.56%	0.102185	+36.39%	0.3857	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.067635	-7.50%	0.098305	+34.44%	0.3706	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.059296	-5.67%	0.10396	+65.38%	0.5250	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.060322	-6.69%	0.11142	+72.34%	0.5933	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.059903	-7.47%	0.087055	+34.47%	0.3853	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.063829	-8.98%	0.08504	+21.26%	0.2866	✗	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.060337	-9.13%	0.09485	+42.85%	0.4109	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.05666	-8.82%	0.09236	+48.63%	0.4548	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.057351	-9.01%	0.09202	+45.99%	0.4828	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.062999	-10.19%	0.09496	+35.37%	0.4312	✗	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.059701	-8.12%	0.101225	+55.78%	0.6153	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.064835	-9.00%	0.13053	+83.20%	0.8808	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.06319	-11.44%	0.1002	+40.43%	0.7178	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.067881	-11.81%	0.081245	+5.55%	0.4053	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.067292	-11.86%	0.08065	+5.63%	0.4128	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.055083	-9.54%	0.074875	+22.97%	0.5427	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.056208	-9.65%	0.06701	+7.71%	0.4234	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.055896	-10.10%	0.07109	+14.34%	0.5294	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.061266	-10.89%	0.08342	+21.33%	0.5744	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.061647	-10.00%	0.09949	+45.24%	0.7100	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.065034	-9.74%	0.094245	+30.80%	0.5752	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.065064	-8.49%	0.09377	+31.88%	0.5633	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.074179	-11.69%	0.08845	+5.30%	0.3397	✗	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.068392	-10.77%	0.097835	+27.64%	0.5339	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.064383	-9.02%	0.09533	+34.70%	0.5614	✗	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.065221	-8.77%	0.077795	+8.82%	0.3266	✗	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.064971	-7.76%	0.076135	+8.08%	0.3021	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.069579	-8.20%	0.078575	+3.67%	0.2571	✗	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.06959	-7.10%	0.07155	-4.49%	0.1874	✗	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.081897	-5.78%	0.0691	-20.50%	0.0288	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.081185	-8.61%	0.07492	-15.66%	0.0635	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.103319	-6.52%	0.07312	-33.84%	0.2636	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.100459	-4.08%	0.06286	-39.98%	0.3405	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.095567	-2.74%	0.06465	-34.21%	0.2434	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.090951	-5.52%	0.06474	-32.75%	0.2189	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.084426	-6.28%	0.07013	-22.15%	0.0707	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.086807	-5.60%	0.0664	-27.79%	0.1358	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.087058	-1.12%	0.06214	-29.42%	0.1623	✓	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.089535	-1.09%	0.06303	-30.37%	0.2066	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.092469	-2.38%	0.07015	-25.94%	0.1355	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.09424	-4.77%	0.06498	-34.34%	0.2596	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.112966	-2.94%	0.07125	-38.78%	0.4025	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.107369	-2.55%	0.07135	-35.24%	0.3724	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.106156	-5.53%	0.076975	-31.50%	0.2996	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.120023	-7.60%	0.07635	-41.22%	0.4304	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.128367	-7.30%	0.06089	-56.03%	0.7084	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.129018	-5.80%	0.062215	-54.58%	0.6892	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.128783	-3.76%	0.062175	-53.53%	0.6913	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.127196	-5.55%	0.068755	-48.95%	0.6100	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.11636	-5.16%	0.0685	-44.17%	0.5236	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.128285	-5.55%	0.07205	-46.95%	0.5558	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.108999	-5.00%	0.0711	-38.03%	0.3913	✓	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.118507	-9.29%	0.084	-35.71%	0.3597	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.103182	-9.46%	0.07665	-32.74%	0.3183	✓	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.075534	-12.37%	0.07077	-17.90%	0.1043	✓	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.085815	-5.93%	0.07149	-21.63%	0.1984	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.11715	-4.95%	0.07044	-42.85%	0.5127	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.145904	-12.19%	0.07579	-54.38%	0.6934	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.081673	-4.52%	0.07491	-12.42%	0.1413	✓	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.071317	-5.09%	0.08692	+15.67%	0.1089	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.06281	-4.40%	0.08883	+35.21%	0.2836	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.054878	-7.78%	0.11052	+85.73%	0.5713	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.050789	-7.12%	0.10473	+91.52%	0.6120	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.049983	-7.19%	0.09826	+82.45%	0.5572	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.0495	-7.63%	0.09627	+79.64%	0.5488	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.057596	-7.01%	0.09008	+45.43%	0.3268	✗	1.00