BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s2

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 594

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

197

of 198 predictions shown

direction hit

55.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0600

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0039

actual -0.0009

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.054285	0.054118	-0.31%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.054325	0.054138	-0.34%	0.054285	-0.07%	0.0008	✓	0.83
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.050057	-0.14%	0.054325	+8.38%	0.0707	✗	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.047373	+0.02%	0.050125	+5.83%	0.0453	✓	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048837	+0.00%	0.047365	-3.01%	0.0289	✗	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.052892	-0.30%	0.048835	-7.95%	0.0862	✓	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.055485	-0.92%	0.05305	-5.27%	0.0437	✓	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044644	+0.10%	0.056	+25.56%	0.2335	✓	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043914	+0.23%	0.0446	+1.79%	0.0094	✓	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047903	+0.08%	0.043815	-8.46%	0.0736	✗	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.054694	-0.03%	0.047865	-12.51%	0.1480	✓	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.066013	-0.34%	0.05471	-17.40%	0.1727	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.067776	-0.39%	0.066235	-2.66%	0.0293	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.068243	-0.41%	0.068045	-0.70%	0.0059	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.065727	-0.36%	0.068525	+3.88%	0.0346	✗	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.067158	-0.49%	0.065965	-2.26%	0.0052	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.066727	-0.60%	0.06749	+0.54%	0.0319	✗	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.061994	-0.28%	0.06713	+7.98%	0.0814	✗	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.062258	-0.25%	0.06217	-0.39%	0.0056	✗	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.06174	-0.21%	0.062415	+0.88%	0.0056	✓	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.062719	-0.19%	0.06187	-1.54%	0.0159	✓	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.065075	-0.23%	0.06284	-3.66%	0.0317	✓	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.066012	-0.22%	0.065225	-1.41%	0.0238	✓	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.066731	-0.25%	0.06616	-1.11%	0.0080	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.067064	-0.19%	0.0669	-0.43%	0.0041	✓	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.070723	-0.33%	0.06719	-5.31%	0.0448	✓	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.070752	-0.54%	0.07096	-0.25%	0.0027	✓	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.069004	-0.30%	0.071135	+2.77%	0.0284	✗	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.066755	-0.20%	0.069215	+3.48%	0.0379	✗	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063619	-0.05%	0.06689	+5.09%	0.0501	✗	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.068811	-0.16%	0.06365	-7.65%	0.0659	✓	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.068076	-0.15%	0.068925	+1.09%	0.0156	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.066025	-0.18%	0.06818	+3.08%	0.0104	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.065388	-0.19%	0.066145	+0.97%	0.0121	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.065093	-0.13%	0.06551	+0.51%	0.0036	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.062449	-0.02%	0.06518	+4.35%	0.0100	✗	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.061433	+0.02%	0.06246	+1.69%	0.0150	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.063181	-0.03%	0.06142	-2.82%	0.0312	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062666	+0.03%	0.0632	+0.89%	0.0223	✓	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061879	+0.08%	0.062645	+1.32%	0.0049	✓	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.06405	+0.03%	0.06183	-3.44%	0.0327	✗	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.064218	-0.04%	0.06403	-0.33%	0.0032	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060725	+0.22%	0.064245	+6.03%	0.0529	✓	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.062049	+0.19%	0.06059	-2.16%	0.0150	✗	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.067703	+0.05%	0.06193	-8.48%	0.0881	✗	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.067472	+0.05%	0.06767	+0.34%	0.0072	✓	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.067433	+0.04%	0.06744	+0.05%	0.0082	✓	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.068751	-0.01%	0.067405	-1.96%	0.0231	✓	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.068671	+0.02%	0.068755	+0.15%	0.0001	✓	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.069712	+0.12%	0.068655	-1.40%	0.0043	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.067184	-0.13%	0.06963	+3.51%	0.0092	✗	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.067384	-0.12%	0.06727	-0.29%	0.0011	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.068366	-0.01%	0.067465	-1.33%	0.0069	✓	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.06779	-0.07%	0.068375	+0.79%	0.0024	✗	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.070596	-0.01%	0.06784	-3.91%	0.0361	✓	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071481	+0.00%	0.0706	-1.23%	0.0151	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.073443	+0.25%	0.07148	-2.43%	0.0111	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.072328	+0.16%	0.07326	+1.45%	0.0050	✓	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.069109	+0.14%	0.072215	+4.64%	0.0408	✓	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.072447	+0.24%	0.06901	-4.52%	0.0458	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.073578	+0.17%	0.072275	-1.60%	0.0265	✗	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.074557	+0.16%	0.07345	-1.33%	0.0197	✗	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.090774	-0.17%	0.07444	-18.13%	0.1909	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.08387	-0.36%	0.09093	+8.02%	0.0543	✗	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.080154	-0.73%	0.084175	+4.25%	0.0244	✗	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.078469	-0.64%	0.080745	+2.24%	0.0062	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.077016	-0.52%	0.078975	+2.01%	0.0234	✗	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.07758	-0.52%	0.07742	-0.72%	0.0163	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.079189	-0.73%	0.077985	-2.24%	0.0137	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.074898	-0.26%	0.07977	+6.23%	0.0626	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.075166	-0.28%	0.07509	-0.38%	0.0029	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.076329	-0.28%	0.075375	-1.52%	0.0127	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.07645	-0.27%	0.07654	-0.16%	0.0024	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.077033	-0.40%	0.07666	-0.88%	0.0005	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.07388	-0.24%	0.07734	+4.44%	0.0562	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.076967	-0.32%	0.074055	-4.09%	0.0379	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.077638	-0.32%	0.077215	-0.87%	0.0056	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.083815	-0.50%	0.07789	-7.54%	0.0807	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.080142	-0.46%	0.08424	+4.63%	0.0539	✗	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.076572	-0.18%	0.08051	+4.95%	0.0439	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.076397	-0.11%	0.07671	+0.30%	0.0025	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.075822	-0.06%	0.07648	+0.80%	0.0090	✗	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.075226	+0.04%	0.07587	+0.90%	0.0009	✓	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.078934	-0.13%	0.075195	-4.86%	0.0479	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.079272	-0.31%	0.07904	-0.60%	0.0173	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.080003	-0.24%	0.079515	-0.85%	0.0145	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.079089	-0.15%	0.080195	+1.24%	0.0134	✗	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.079213	-0.13%	0.07921	-0.13%	0.0015	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.086671	-0.42%	0.079315	-8.88%	0.0746	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.084299	-0.33%	0.08704	+2.91%	0.0236	✗	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.08412	-0.35%	0.08458	+0.20%	0.0038	✗	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.075849	-0.11%	0.084415	+11.17%	0.1157	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.083982	-0.32%	0.07593	-9.88%	0.0919	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.08514	-0.32%	0.08425	-1.36%	0.0068	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.085571	-0.31%	0.08541	-0.50%	0.0111	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.089892	-0.40%	0.085835	-4.89%	0.0504	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.091732	-0.42%	0.09025	-2.03%	0.0149	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.091366	-0.39%	0.09212	+0.44%	0.0031	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.09094	-0.43%	0.09172	+0.42%	0.0067	✗	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.089095	-0.42%	0.091335	+2.08%	0.0350	✗	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.087056	-0.37%	0.08947	+2.39%	0.0308	✗	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.094307	-0.44%	0.08738	-7.75%	0.1208	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.10154	-0.63%	0.094725	-7.30%	0.0463	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.09782	-0.49%	0.102185	+3.95%	0.0442	✗	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.103273	-0.66%	0.098305	-5.44%	0.0440	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.109786	-1.47%	0.10396	-6.70%	0.0694	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.086603	-0.52%	0.11142	+27.99%	0.2390	✗	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.084699	-0.40%	0.087055	+2.37%	0.0417	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.094264	-0.62%	0.08504	-10.34%	0.0945	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.091815	-0.59%	0.09485	+2.70%	0.0267	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.091537	-0.52%	0.09236	+0.37%	0.0019	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.094512	-0.47%	0.09202	-3.10%	0.0347	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.100725	-0.49%	0.09496	-6.19%	0.0743	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.127265	-2.50%	0.101225	-22.45%	0.2571	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.098548	-1.65%	0.13053	+30.27%	0.2589	✗	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.080943	-0.37%	0.1002	+23.33%	0.2438	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.080145	-0.63%	0.081245	+0.74%	0.0036	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.074612	-0.35%	0.08065	+7.71%	0.0847	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.067071	+0.09%	0.074875	+11.74%	0.1111	✓	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.07114	+0.07%	0.06701	-5.74%	0.0643	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.083211	-0.25%	0.07109	-14.78%	0.1402	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.098275	-1.22%	0.08342	-16.15%	0.1453	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.093607	-0.68%	0.09949	+5.57%	0.0761	✗	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.092977	-0.85%	0.094245	+0.51%	0.0053	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.088046	-0.46%	0.09377	+6.01%	0.0749	✗	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.096738	-1.12%	0.08845	-9.59%	0.0991	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.093991	-1.40%	0.097835	+2.63%	0.0325	✗	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.07753	-0.34%	0.09533	+22.54%	0.2309	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.075916	-0.29%	0.077795	+2.18%	0.0426	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.078023	-0.70%	0.076135	-3.11%	0.0144	✓	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.071435	-0.16%	0.078575	+9.82%	0.0868	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.069079	-0.03%	0.07155	+3.55%	0.0162	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.074736	-0.25%	0.0691	-7.77%	0.0924	✓	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.072926	-0.27%	0.07492	+2.46%	0.0274	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.063025	+0.26%	0.07312	+16.32%	0.1196	✓	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.064792	+0.22%	0.06286	-2.77%	0.0270	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.064856	+0.18%	0.06465	-0.14%	0.0161	✓	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.070122	-0.01%	0.06474	-7.69%	0.0766	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.066599	+0.30%	0.07013	+5.62%	0.0192	✓	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.062476	+0.54%	0.0664	+6.86%	0.0634	✓	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.063292	+0.42%	0.06214	-1.41%	0.0209	✓	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.070293	+0.20%	0.06303	-10.15%	0.1059	✗	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.065196	+0.33%	0.07015	+7.96%	0.1165	✓	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.071182	-0.09%	0.06498	-8.80%	0.0207	✓	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.07123	-0.17%	0.07125	-0.14%	0.0353	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.076597	-0.49%	0.07135	-7.31%	0.0680	✓	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.075701	-0.85%	0.076975	+0.82%	0.0106	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.061027	+0.23%	0.07635	+25.39%	0.2263	✓	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.062318	+0.16%	0.06089	-2.13%	0.0106	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.062263	+0.14%	0.062215	+0.06%	0.0236	✓	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.068655	-0.15%	0.062175	-9.57%	0.0782	✓	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.06849	-0.02%	0.068755	+0.37%	0.0001	✓	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.072026	-0.03%	0.0685	-4.93%	0.0550	✓	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.071223	+0.17%	0.07205	+1.34%	0.0062	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.083442	-0.66%	0.0711	-15.36%	0.1362	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.076472	-0.23%	0.084	+9.59%	0.0931	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.070919	+0.21%	0.07665	+8.31%	0.0699	✓	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.071665	+0.24%	0.07077	-1.01%	0.0106	✗	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.070716	+0.39%	0.07149	+1.49%	0.0161	✓	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.07602	+0.30%	0.07044	-7.06%	0.0688	✗	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.07525	+0.45%	0.07579	+1.17%	0.0176	✓	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.086921	+0.00%	0.07491	-13.82%	0.1332	✗	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.088933	+0.12%	0.08692	-2.15%	0.0374	✗	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.109361	-1.05%	0.08883	-19.63%	0.2027	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.103921	-0.77%	0.11052	+5.53%	0.0685	✗	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.09756	-0.71%	0.10473	+6.58%	0.0739	✗	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.095891	-0.39%	0.09826	+2.07%	0.0151	✗	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.090202	+0.14%	0.09627	+6.87%	0.0623	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.091975	+0.02%	0.09008	-2.04%	0.0219	✗	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.088288	+0.28%	0.091955	+4.44%	0.0515	✓	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.090667	+0.16%	0.088045	-2.73%	0.0333	✗	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.094687	-0.03%	0.09052	-4.43%	0.0534	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.098751	-0.21%	0.09472	-4.28%	0.0528	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.115448	-0.81%	0.09896	-14.98%	0.1532	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.109614	-0.51%	0.11639	+5.64%	0.0566	✗	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.111752	-0.55%	0.11018	-1.95%	0.0303	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.128616	-0.98%	0.11237	-13.49%	0.1400	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.136825	-1.19%	0.12989	-6.20%	0.0446	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.134816	-1.57%	0.13847	+1.10%	0.0404	✗	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.132164	-1.23%	0.136965	+2.36%	0.0525	✗	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.132657	-1.50%	0.13381	-0.64%	0.0044	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.121358	-1.08%	0.134675	+9.77%	0.1017	✗	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.13304	-2.05%	0.122685	-9.67%	0.0705	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.11358	-1.01%	0.13582	+18.37%	0.1779	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.126899	-2.87%	0.11474	-12.18%	0.1248	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.110247	-3.26%	0.13065	+14.65%	0.1634	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.085535	-0.77%	0.11396	+32.20%	0.2596	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.090545	-0.74%	0.0862	-5.50%	0.0236	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.120442	-2.28%	0.09122	-25.99%	0.2601	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.155123	-6.64%	0.12325	-25.82%	0.2554	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.083703	-2.14%	0.16615	+94.25%	0.6813	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.074051	-1.46%	0.085535	+13.83%	0.1354	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.064822	-1.34%	0.075145	+14.38%	0.1514	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.059113	-0.66%	0.0657	+10.41%	0.0548	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.054491	-0.36%	0.059505	+8.81%	0.1204	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.053712	-0.27%	0.054685	+1.54%	0.0167	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.053486	-0.19%	0.053855	+0.49%	0.0097	✓	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.061687	-0.41%	0.05359	-13.48%	0.1507	✓	1.00