BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s2

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

196

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

51.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0605

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0044

actual -0.0012

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.050562	-0.59%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.049859	-0.53%	0.05086	+1.47%	0.0224	✗	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.047157	-0.44%	0.050125	+5.83%	0.0498	✗	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048534	-0.62%	0.047365	-3.01%	0.0227	✓	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.052564	-0.92%	0.048835	-7.95%	0.0800	✓	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.055438	-1.00%	0.05305	-5.27%	0.0428	✓	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044567	-0.07%	0.056	+25.56%	0.2352	✗	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043857	+0.10%	0.0446	+1.79%	0.0107	✓	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047848	-0.04%	0.043815	-8.46%	0.0724	✓	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.054626	-0.15%	0.047865	-12.51%	0.1467	✓	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.06591	-0.49%	0.05471	-17.40%	0.1712	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.067702	-0.50%	0.066235	-2.66%	0.0282	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.068175	-0.51%	0.068045	-0.70%	0.0049	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.065673	-0.44%	0.068525	+3.88%	0.0354	✗	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.067045	-0.66%	0.065965	-2.26%	0.0036	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.066447	-1.02%	0.06749	+0.54%	0.0361	✗	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.0617	-0.76%	0.06713	+7.98%	0.0862	✗	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.062145	-0.43%	0.06217	-0.39%	0.0074	✗	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.06155	-0.52%	0.062415	+0.88%	0.0025	✓	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.062577	-0.42%	0.06187	-1.54%	0.0136	✓	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.065005	-0.34%	0.06284	-3.66%	0.0307	✓	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.065964	-0.30%	0.065225	-1.41%	0.0230	✓	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.066738	-0.24%	0.06616	-1.11%	0.0081	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.067069	-0.18%	0.0669	-0.43%	0.0042	✓	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.070822	-0.19%	0.06719	-5.31%	0.0462	✓	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.071023	-0.16%	0.07096	-0.25%	0.0012	✓	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.069178	-0.05%	0.071135	+2.77%	0.0259	✗	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.066954	+0.10%	0.069215	+3.48%	0.0350	✓	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063816	+0.26%	0.06689	+5.09%	0.0470	✓	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.069068	+0.21%	0.06365	-7.65%	0.0697	✗	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.068331	+0.22%	0.068925	+1.09%	0.0118	✓	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.066238	+0.14%	0.06818	+3.08%	0.0136	✗	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.065619	+0.17%	0.066145	+0.97%	0.0086	✓	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.065275	+0.15%	0.06551	+0.51%	0.0008	✓	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.06248	+0.03%	0.06518	+4.35%	0.0095	✓	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.06146	+0.06%	0.06246	+1.69%	0.0146	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.06321	+0.02%	0.06142	-2.82%	0.0317	✗	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.0627	+0.09%	0.0632	+0.89%	0.0218	✓	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061878	+0.08%	0.062645	+1.32%	0.0050	✓	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.064053	+0.04%	0.06183	-3.44%	0.0327	✗	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.064286	+0.06%	0.06403	-0.33%	0.0043	✗	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060726	+0.22%	0.064245	+6.03%	0.0528	✓	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.062113	+0.30%	0.06059	-2.16%	0.0160	✗	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.067805	+0.20%	0.06193	-8.48%	0.0896	✗	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.067663	+0.33%	0.06767	+0.34%	0.0043	✓	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.067774	+0.55%	0.06744	+0.05%	0.0031	✓	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.069085	+0.48%	0.067405	-1.96%	0.0280	✗	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.068989	+0.49%	0.068755	+0.15%	0.0045	✓	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.070034	+0.58%	0.068655	-1.40%	0.0089	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.067548	+0.41%	0.06963	+3.51%	0.0038	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.067769	+0.45%	0.06727	-0.29%	0.0067	✗	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.068675	+0.44%	0.067465	-1.33%	0.0114	✗	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.068107	+0.39%	0.068375	+0.79%	0.0022	✓	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.070849	+0.35%	0.06784	-3.91%	0.0396	✗	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071729	+0.35%	0.0706	-1.23%	0.0185	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.073584	+0.44%	0.07148	-2.43%	0.0130	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.072498	+0.39%	0.07326	+1.45%	0.0026	✓	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.069294	+0.41%	0.072215	+4.64%	0.0381	✓	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.072462	+0.26%	0.06901	-4.52%	0.0460	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.073574	+0.17%	0.072275	-1.60%	0.0265	✗	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.074491	+0.07%	0.07345	-1.33%	0.0188	✗	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.090242	-0.76%	0.07444	-18.13%	0.1850	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.08395	-0.27%	0.09093	+8.02%	0.0534	✗	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.080317	-0.53%	0.084175	+4.25%	0.0224	✗	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.078438	-0.68%	0.080745	+2.24%	0.0058	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.077019	-0.52%	0.078975	+2.01%	0.0234	✗	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.077651	-0.43%	0.07742	-0.72%	0.0172	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.079421	-0.44%	0.077985	-2.24%	0.0167	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.074902	-0.25%	0.07977	+6.23%	0.0626	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.075154	-0.29%	0.07509	-0.38%	0.0031	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.076314	-0.30%	0.075375	-1.52%	0.0125	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.076445	-0.28%	0.07654	-0.16%	0.0024	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.077061	-0.36%	0.07666	-0.88%	0.0009	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.073702	-0.48%	0.07734	+4.44%	0.0586	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.076736	-0.62%	0.074055	-4.09%	0.0349	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.077329	-0.72%	0.077215	-0.87%	0.0017	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.083611	-0.75%	0.07789	-7.54%	0.0783	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.079735	-0.96%	0.08424	+4.63%	0.0590	✗	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.076099	-0.80%	0.08051	+4.95%	0.0501	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.076019	-0.60%	0.07671	+0.30%	0.0025	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.075552	-0.42%	0.07648	+0.80%	0.0126	✗	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.075034	-0.21%	0.07587	+0.90%	0.0035	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.078807	-0.29%	0.075195	-4.86%	0.0463	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.079058	-0.57%	0.07904	-0.60%	0.0199	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.079829	-0.46%	0.079515	-0.85%	0.0124	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.078918	-0.37%	0.080195	+1.24%	0.0156	✗	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.079067	-0.31%	0.07921	-0.13%	0.0003	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.086624	-0.48%	0.079315	-8.88%	0.0741	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.084262	-0.38%	0.08704	+2.91%	0.0241	✗	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.084061	-0.42%	0.08458	+0.20%	0.0045	✗	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.075745	-0.24%	0.084415	+11.17%	0.1171	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.083791	-0.55%	0.07593	-9.88%	0.0896	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.0851	-0.36%	0.08425	-1.36%	0.0063	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.085496	-0.40%	0.08541	-0.50%	0.0102	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.089862	-0.43%	0.085835	-4.89%	0.0501	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.091756	-0.40%	0.09025	-2.03%	0.0152	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.091335	-0.42%	0.09212	+0.44%	0.0027	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.090949	-0.42%	0.09172	+0.42%	0.0066	✗	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.089137	-0.37%	0.091335	+2.08%	0.0345	✗	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.087135	-0.28%	0.08947	+2.39%	0.0299	✗	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.094278	-0.47%	0.08738	-7.75%	0.1204	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.101747	-0.43%	0.094725	-7.30%	0.0484	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.097979	-0.33%	0.102185	+3.95%	0.0426	✗	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.103531	-0.41%	0.098305	-5.44%	0.0465	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.110308	-1.00%	0.10396	-6.70%	0.0741	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.086776	-0.32%	0.11142	+27.99%	0.2370	✗	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.084814	-0.27%	0.087055	+2.37%	0.0404	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.094428	-0.44%	0.08504	-10.34%	0.0962	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.091898	-0.50%	0.09485	+2.70%	0.0258	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.091496	-0.57%	0.09236	+0.37%	0.0023	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.094271	-0.73%	0.09202	-3.10%	0.0322	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.099996	-1.21%	0.09496	-6.19%	0.0670	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.125638	-3.75%	0.101225	-22.45%	0.2442	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.097611	-2.58%	0.13053	+30.27%	0.2684	✗	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.080484	-0.94%	0.1002	+23.33%	0.2495	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.079799	-1.06%	0.081245	+0.74%	0.0079	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.074642	-0.31%	0.08065	+7.71%	0.0843	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.066959	-0.08%	0.074875	+11.74%	0.1127	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.070984	-0.15%	0.06701	-5.74%	0.0621	✓	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.083117	-0.36%	0.07109	-14.78%	0.1390	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.098818	-0.68%	0.08342	-16.15%	0.1508	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.093799	-0.47%	0.09949	+5.57%	0.0741	✗	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.093234	-0.57%	0.094245	+0.51%	0.0025	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.088035	-0.47%	0.09377	+6.01%	0.0751	✗	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.096864	-0.99%	0.08845	-9.59%	0.1004	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.094082	-1.31%	0.097835	+2.63%	0.0315	✗	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.077443	-0.45%	0.09533	+22.54%	0.2320	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.075776	-0.47%	0.077795	+2.18%	0.0445	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.078024	-0.70%	0.076135	-3.11%	0.0144	✓	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.071155	-0.55%	0.078575	+9.82%	0.0907	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.068714	-0.56%	0.07155	+3.55%	0.0215	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.074211	-0.95%	0.0691	-7.77%	0.0854	✓	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.072349	-1.05%	0.07492	+2.46%	0.0353	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.062424	-0.69%	0.07312	+16.32%	0.1292	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.063967	-1.06%	0.06286	-2.77%	0.0141	✓	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.063927	-1.26%	0.06465	-0.14%	0.0305	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.068703	-2.04%	0.06474	-7.69%	0.0561	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.064585	-2.73%	0.07013	+5.62%	0.0499	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.060451	-2.72%	0.0664	+6.86%	0.0963	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.061659	-2.18%	0.06214	-1.41%	0.0470	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.068382	-2.52%	0.06303	-10.15%	0.0783	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.064207	-1.19%	0.07015	+7.96%	0.1318	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.071016	-0.33%	0.06498	-8.80%	0.0183	✓	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.071178	-0.24%	0.07125	-0.14%	0.0360	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.076579	-0.51%	0.07135	-7.31%	0.0678	✓	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.075877	-0.62%	0.076975	+0.82%	0.0083	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.061123	+0.38%	0.07635	+25.39%	0.2247	✓	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.062512	+0.48%	0.06089	-2.13%	0.0137	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.062581	+0.65%	0.062215	+0.06%	0.0184	✓	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.069049	+0.43%	0.062175	-9.57%	0.0840	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.068888	+0.57%	0.068755	+0.37%	0.0059	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.072386	+0.47%	0.0685	-4.93%	0.0600	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.071477	+0.53%	0.07205	+1.34%	0.0098	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.083733	-0.32%	0.0711	-15.36%	0.1397	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.076627	-0.03%	0.084	+9.59%	0.0911	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.071181	+0.58%	0.07665	+8.31%	0.0662	✓	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.071968	+0.67%	0.07077	-1.01%	0.0148	✗	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.071242	+1.14%	0.07149	+1.49%	0.0087	✓	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.076425	+0.84%	0.07044	-7.06%	0.0741	✗	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.075579	+0.89%	0.07579	+1.17%	0.0132	✓	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.086605	-0.36%	0.07491	-13.82%	0.1296	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.088642	-0.21%	0.08692	-2.15%	0.0341	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.10948	-0.94%	0.08883	-19.63%	0.2038	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.104006	-0.69%	0.11052	+5.53%	0.0676	✗	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.097629	-0.64%	0.10473	+6.58%	0.0732	✗	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.095634	-0.66%	0.09826	+2.07%	0.0178	✗	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.089938	-0.16%	0.09627	+6.87%	0.0652	✗	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.091827	-0.14%	0.09008	-2.04%	0.0203	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.088033	-0.01%	0.091955	+4.44%	0.0544	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.090674	+0.17%	0.088045	-2.73%	0.0334	✗	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.095064	+0.36%	0.09052	-4.43%	0.0573	✗	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.099248	+0.29%	0.09472	-4.28%	0.0578	✗	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.116074	-0.27%	0.09896	-14.98%	0.1586	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.11045	+0.25%	0.11639	+5.64%	0.0490	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.112614	+0.22%	0.11018	-1.95%	0.0379	✗	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.128871	-0.78%	0.11237	-13.49%	0.1420	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.136626	-1.33%	0.12989	-6.20%	0.0431	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.134907	-1.50%	0.13847	+1.10%	0.0397	✗	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.132339	-1.10%	0.136965	+2.36%	0.0511	✗	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.132671	-1.49%	0.13381	-0.64%	0.0045	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.121168	-1.24%	0.134675	+9.77%	0.1033	✗	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.133629	-1.61%	0.122685	-9.67%	0.0749	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.11363	-0.97%	0.13582	+18.37%	0.1774	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.127694	-2.26%	0.11474	-12.18%	0.1310	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.112145	-1.59%	0.13065	+14.65%	0.1464	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.08544	-0.88%	0.11396	+32.20%	0.2607	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.090793	-0.47%	0.0862	-5.50%	0.0263	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.121265	-1.61%	0.09122	-25.99%	0.2669	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.157189	-5.39%	0.12325	-25.82%	0.2687	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.08515	-0.45%	0.16615	+94.25%	0.6641	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.074789	-0.47%	0.085535	+13.83%	0.1254	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.065368	-0.51%	0.075145	+14.38%	0.1430	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.058801	-1.18%	0.0657	+10.41%	0.0601	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.054228	-0.84%	0.059505	+8.81%	0.1253	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.053468	-0.72%	0.054685	+1.54%	0.0213	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.053197	-0.73%	0.053855	+0.49%	0.0043	✓	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.061482	-0.74%	0.05359	-13.48%	0.1473	✓	1.00