2022-02-08 · +30d

gru_s2 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 148 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.2942

148 of 148 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+22.26%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

79.7%

in alpha space · 91.2% on raw price

BTC over horizon

-10.55%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (148 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▾	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
NCT	PolySwarm	Ethereum	0.04628	0.046623	+0.74%	0.04023	-13.07%	0.0360	✗	1.00	5.0M	2022-03-10
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.068059	0.068531	+0.69%	0.059896	-11.99%	0.0348	✗	0.90	362k	2022-03-10
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	44,085.59	43,881.49	-0.46%	39,433.71	-10.55%	0.0046	✓	1.00	682.8M	2022-03-10
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	42,914.50	42,671.44	-0.57%	39,505.90	-7.94%	0.0303	✗	0.96	41k	2022-03-10
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	9.72	9.6521	-0.70%	8.5	-12.55%	0.0169	✗	1.29	2.5M	2022-03-10
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.8111	6.7573	-0.79%	6.3304	-7.06%	0.0340	✗	0.89	4.1M	2022-03-10
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	7.5798	7.5165	-0.83%	5.8363	-23.00%	0.2189	✓	0.31	389k	2022-03-10
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.034271	0.033845	-1.24%	0.015274	-55.43%	0.6559	✓	1.25	114k	2022-03-10
XMR	Monero	Monero	179	176.5889	-1.35%	178.98	-0.01%	0.1291	✗	1.04	1.6M	2022-03-10
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.6264	0.616921	-1.51%	0.6973	+11.32%	0.2693	✗	1.32	2.7M	2022-03-10
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	3,119.57	3,069.11	-1.62%	2,608.22	-16.39%	0.0393	✓	1.11	557.7M	2022-03-10
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.1583	0.155464	-1.79%	0.116797	-26.22%	0.1715	✓	1.03	7.1M	2022-03-10
BTTC	BTTC		0.00000225	0.000002208	-1.88%	0.00000181	-19.56%	0.0871	✓	1.00	15.3M	2022-03-10
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	7.29	7.1462	-1.97%	6.04	-17.15%	0.1324	✓	0.32	1.1M	2022-03-10
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	16.15	15.8193	-2.05%	12.75	-21.05%	0.0989	✓	1.05	604k	2022-03-10
SOL	Solana	Solana	113.58	111.1517	-2.14%	82.92	-26.99%	0.1551	✓	1.24	182.7M	2022-03-10
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.22456	0.21954	-2.24%	0.15896	-29.21%	0.1459	✓	1.59	36k	2022-03-10
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.242394	0.236539	-2.42%	0.178633	-26.30%	0.1664	✓	1.03	24.9M	2022-03-10
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	20.1	19.5928	-2.52%	14	-30.35%	0.1445	✓	1.72	3.8M	2022-03-10
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	335.57	327.025	-2.55%	289.59	-13.70%	0.0083	✓	1.02	7.9M	2022-03-10
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	2.847	2.7743	-2.55%	3.236	+13.66%	0.3031	✗	1.34	1.1M	2022-03-10
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	133.82	130.3931	-2.56%	102.58	-23.34%	0.0951	✓	1.30	32.4M	2022-03-10
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.9181	1.8678	-2.62%	2.7676	+44.29%	0.4617	✗	0.61	2.9M	2022-03-10
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	3.5194	3.4229	-2.74%	2.8703	-18.44%	0.0699	✓	0.95	2.0M	2022-03-10
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	1.344	1.3064	-2.80%	1.0319	-23.22%	0.1211	✓	1.03	292k	2022-03-10
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.791	1.7406	-2.82%	1.536	-14.24%	0.0029	✓	1.15	1.6M	2022-03-10
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1638	0.159141	-2.84%	0.1518	-7.33%	0.0690	✗	1.04	362k	2022-03-10
NANO	nanopay	Base	2.3589	2.2888	-2.97%	1.6882	-28.43%	0.1723	✓	1.18	845k	2022-03-10
KCS	KuCoin	native	20.237	19.6166	-3.07%	18.083	-10.64%	0.0681	✗	1.34	10.5M	2022-03-10
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.10219	0.098997	-3.12%	0.08882	-13.08%	0.0091	✓	1.05	49k	2022-03-10
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.5288	0.512076	-3.16%	0.2987	-43.51%	0.3730	✓	1.49	2.2M	2022-03-10
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	27.08	26.2195	-3.18%	27.97	+3.29%	0.1719	✗	0.96	543k	2022-03-10
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	1.8682	1.8072	-3.27%	2.1814	+16.76%	0.3102	✗	1.09	78k	2022-03-10
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.04001	0.038698	-3.28%	0.01693	-57.69%	0.7024	✓	1.11	9.1M	2022-03-10
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	11.95	11.5527	-3.32%	8.68	-27.36%	0.1391	✓	1.32	12.9M	2022-03-10
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.022305	0.021562	-3.33%	0.01703	-23.65%	0.1011	✓	1.21	2.5M	2022-03-10
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.5993	0.579113	-3.37%	0.5014	-16.34%	0.0248	✓	1.07	1.3M	2022-03-10
SC	Siacoin	native	0.01176	0.011361	-3.39%	0.00902	-23.30%	0.1187	✓	1.00	588k	2022-03-10
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00003097	0.000029914	-3.41%	0.00002262	-26.96%	0.1243	✓	1.39	1.4M	2022-03-10
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	6.13	5.913	-3.54%	4.46	-27.24%	0.1660	✓	1.04	867k	2022-03-10
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	184.15	177.5942	-3.56%	119.26	-35.24%	0.2428	✓	1.39	9.8M	2022-03-10
XEC	eCash	native	0.00009444	0.00009103	-3.61%	0.00008054	-14.72%	0.0048	✓	1.14	5.5M	2022-03-10
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	5.63	5.4267	-3.61%	5.2	-7.64%	0.0438	✗	0.78	377k	2022-03-10
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	32.06	30.8992	-3.62%	26.7	-16.72%	0.0284	✓	1.06	4.0M	2022-03-10
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.5159	3.3881	-3.63%	2.8775	-18.16%	0.0417	✓	1.09	2.5M	2022-03-10
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.0919	0.088511	-3.69%	0.068	-26.01%	0.1264	✓	1.23	244k	2022-03-10
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	10.47	10.075	-3.77%	10.26	-2.01%	0.0961	✗	0.70	660k	2022-03-10
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.04912	0.047259	-3.79%	0.040695	-17.15%	0.0186	✓	1.17	8.8M	2022-03-10
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.4741	0.455986	-3.82%	0.3255	-31.34%	0.1906	✓	1.31	9.3M	2022-03-10
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.371	0.356555	-3.89%	0.266	-28.30%	0.1424	✓	1.35	1.8M	2022-03-10
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	18.4	17.6832	-3.90%	13.18	-28.37%	0.1613	✓	1.19	76.9M	2022-03-10
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.00724	0.006955	-3.94%	0.00366	-49.45%	0.4193	✓	2.00	20.0M	2022-03-10
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.016889	0.016222	-3.95%	0.011453	-32.19%	0.2170	✓	1.18	2.0M	2022-03-10
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.561	2.4597	-3.95%	2.141	-16.40%	0.0213	✓	1.05	22k	2022-03-10
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	6.83	6.5585	-3.98%	6.06	-11.27%	0.0186	✓	0.88	416k	2022-03-10
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	7.0785	6.7953	-4.00%	6.006	-15.15%	0.0376	✓	1.44	179k	2022-03-10
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.422	1.365	-4.01%	1.175	-17.37%	0.0117	✓	1.24	3.4M	2022-03-10
STX	Stacks	native	1.69	1.6205	-4.11%	1.51	-10.65%	0.0409	✓	1.00	1.2M	2022-03-10
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0786	0.075346	-4.14%	0.0702	-10.69%	0.0504	✗	1.09	21k	2022-03-10
METRONOME	METRONOME		3.6711	3.5162	-4.22%	2.155	-41.30%	0.3920	✓	0.88	27k	2022-03-10
XVG	Verge	native	0.01184	0.01134	-4.22%	0.00985	-16.81%	0.0103	✓	1.36	1.3M	2022-03-10
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	1.19	1.1397	-4.22%	0.979	-17.73%	0.0041	✓	1.33	523k	2022-03-10
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.557	0.53344	-4.23%	0.386	-30.70%	0.1639	✓	1.43	4.6M	2022-03-10
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	17.23	16.5	-4.24%	13.72	-20.37%	0.1066	✓	0.70	919k	2022-03-10
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		101.44	97.1178	-4.26%	78.54	-22.57%	0.1116	✓	0.90	1.5M	2022-03-10
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	3.261	3.1194	-4.34%	2.591	-20.55%	0.0957	✓	0.81	206k	2022-03-10
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	133.12	127.3289	-4.35%	157.3	+18.16%	0.3531	✗	1.27	6.6M	2022-03-10
XEM	NEM	native	0.1163	0.11121	-4.38%	0.0965	-17.02%	0.0256	✓	1.04	35k	2022-03-10
DASH	Dash	Dash	112.75	107.8127	-4.38%	104.65	-7.18%	0.0966	✗	1.13	2.3M	2022-03-10
PRO	Propy	Ethereum	2.23	2.1319	-4.40%	1.6	-28.25%	0.1755	✓	1.00	1.7M	2022-03-10
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	6.95	6.644	-4.40%	7.54	+8.49%	0.2163	✗	0.81	463k	2022-03-10
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	3.641	3.4781	-4.47%	2.69	-26.12%	0.1598	✓	0.87	536k	2022-03-10
DIA	DIA	Ethereum	1.06	1.0124	-4.49%	0.91	-14.15%	0.0049	✓	1.00	287k	2022-03-10
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	147.49	140.8292	-4.52%	116.66	-20.90%	0.0767	✓	1.00	7.8M	2022-03-10
API3	Api3	Ethereum	3.85	3.6761	-4.52%	5.224	+35.69%	0.3871	✗	0.32	1.5M	2022-03-10
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	1.045	0.996581	-4.63%	0.827	-20.86%	0.0341	✓	1.37	2.3M	2022-03-10
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	0.809	0.771489	-4.64%	0.618	-23.61%	0.1004	✓	1.09	1.7M	2022-03-10
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.04533	0.043219	-4.66%	0.03918	-13.57%	0.0261	✓	1.11	30k	2022-03-10
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.681804	0.649975	-4.67%	0.503035	-26.22%	0.1283	✓	1.15	3.5M	2022-03-10
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.05908	0.056299	-4.71%	0.0474	-19.77%	0.0125	✓	1.43	1.3M	2022-03-10
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	2.19	2.0848	-4.80%	1.67	-23.74%	0.0773	✓	1.30	2.2M	2022-03-10
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01315	0.012517	-4.82%	0.01203	-8.52%	0.0489	✓	0.79	12k	2022-03-10
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.0865	0.082331	-4.82%	0.0684	-20.92%	0.0312	✓	1.38	548k	2022-03-10
GLMR	Moonbeam	Base	5.831	5.5495	-4.83%	2.532	-56.58%	0.6732	✓	1.00	1.0M	2022-03-10
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	2.78	2.6458	-4.83%	1.512	-45.61%	0.4566	✓	0.92	2.6M	2022-03-10
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.0314	0.02987	-4.87%	0.02578	-17.90%	0.0477	✓	0.89	7.0M	2022-03-10
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	30.82	29.317	-4.88%	24.22	-21.41%	0.0247	✓	1.49	2.0M	2022-03-10
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	2.78	2.6442	-4.89%	2.2	-20.86%	0.0707	✓	1.02	504k	2022-03-10
HIVE	Hive	native	1.1789	1.1209	-4.92%	0.928	-21.28%	0.0260	✓	1.46	1.9M	2022-03-10
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	86.45	82.1515	-4.97%	73.95	-14.46%	0.0448	✓	1.35	87.1M	2022-03-10
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	4.578	4.3493	-5.00%	4.112	-10.18%	0.0363	✓	0.83	346k	2022-03-10
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	46.39	44.0449	-5.06%	40.75	-12.16%	0.0522	✗	1.17	33.0M	2022-03-10
ZEN	Horizen	Base	47.62	45.1888	-5.11%	42.28	-11.21%	0.1055	✗	1.54	504k	2022-03-10
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	1.1764	1.116	-5.13%	0.807	-31.40%	0.2006	✓	1.11	113.2M	2022-03-10
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	192.41	182.4899	-5.16%	126.53	-34.24%	0.2316	✓	1.21	1.0M	2022-03-10
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	7.632	7.2356	-5.19%	4.75	-37.76%	0.3091	✓	1.00	460k	2022-03-10
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.5442	0.515803	-5.22%	0.3311	-39.16%	0.2425	✓	1.80	40.2M	2022-03-10
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	4.3927	4.1613	-5.27%	3.0579	-30.39%	0.1618	✓	1.31	2.3M	2022-03-10
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.1243	0.117736	-5.28%	0.0821	-33.95%	0.1869	✓	1.56	1.5M	2022-03-10
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	0.7515	0.711674	-5.30%	0.4164	-44.59%	0.3651	✓	1.53	969k	2022-03-10
BAND	Band	Ethereum	3.96	3.7485	-5.34%	3.473	-12.30%	0.0642	✗	1.26	1.9M	2022-03-10
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	3.4688	3.2819	-5.39%	2.3707	-31.66%	0.2164	✓	0.98	2.8M	2022-03-10
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.1335	0.126267	-5.42%	0.1198	-10.26%	0.1003	✗	1.37	3.2M	2022-03-10
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	147.97	139.8511	-5.49%	103.46	-30.08%	0.1590	✓	1.28	65k	2022-03-10
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.3065	0.28967	-5.49%	0.2025	-33.93%	0.1858	✓	1.54	4.1M	2022-03-10
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	1.86	1.7575	-5.51%	1.374	-26.13%	0.1069	✓	1.25	1.6M	2022-03-10
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.2258	0.213327	-5.52%	0.1964	-13.02%	0.0721	✗	1.39	3.7M	2022-03-10
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	0.92382	0.872401	-5.57%	0.68631	-25.71%	0.0751	✓	1.48	311k	2022-03-10
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.283	0.267194	-5.59%	0.23	-18.73%	0.0435	✓	0.95	76k	2022-03-10
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	66.79	63.0593	-5.59%	46.78	-29.96%	0.1629	✓	1.22	8.1M	2022-03-10
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.2815	0.265597	-5.65%	0.2216	-21.28%	0.0611	✓	1.08	1.7M	2022-03-10
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	6.692	6.3134	-5.66%	4.672	-30.19%	0.2005	✓	0.90	81k	2022-03-10
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	2.25	2.1176	-5.88%	1.12	-50.22%	0.5053	✓	1.18	1.7M	2022-03-10
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	57.22	53.806	-5.97%	101.21	+76.88%	0.7886	✗	1.41	8.8M	2022-03-10
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	6.51	6.1188	-6.01%	7.407	+13.78%	0.3008	✗	0.98	1.9M	2022-03-10
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	1.0239	0.962323	-6.01%	0.7308	-28.63%	0.1528	✓	1.10	29.4M	2022-03-10
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	0.9872	0.927589	-6.04%	0.732	-25.85%	0.1207	✓	1.04	13.5M	2022-03-10
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.3139	0.294886	-6.06%	0.2624	-16.41%	0.0070	✓	1.11	538k	2022-03-10
FIDA	Bonfida	Solana	2.166	2.0344	-6.07%	1.676	-22.62%	0.0823	✓	1.00	66k	2022-03-10
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.08606	0.080831	-6.08%	0.07709	-10.42%	0.0372	✓	0.76	89k	2022-03-10
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	30.42	28.5443	-6.17%	28.05	-7.79%	0.1063	✗	1.11	98.1M	2022-03-10
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	25.99	24.376	-6.21%	18.43	-29.09%	0.1045	✓	1.57	405k	2022-03-10
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.01536	0.014399	-6.26%	0.01209	-21.29%	0.0081	✓	1.49	1.7M	2022-03-10
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	1.0791	1.0101	-6.39%	0.7156	-33.69%	0.1726	✓	1.54	680k	2022-03-10
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.2693	1.1875	-6.45%	1.1927	-6.04%	0.1364	✗	1.18	2.3M	2022-03-10
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	21.68	20.2704	-6.50%	16.97	-21.73%	0.0273	✓	1.35	39.2M	2022-03-10
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	6.81	6.3593	-6.62%	4.08	-40.09%	0.3214	✓	1.10	789k	2022-03-10
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	0.8556	0.798515	-6.67%	0.4126	-51.78%	0.4543	✓	1.85	1.8M	2022-03-10
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	24.6	22.9569	-6.68%	17.9	-27.24%	0.1158	✓	1.19	10.5M	2022-03-10
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.0799	0.074503	-6.76%	0.0588	-26.41%	0.0517	✓	1.66	27.8M	2022-03-10
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.319	1.2283	-6.87%	1.4191	+7.59%	0.3160	✗	1.54	106k	2022-03-10
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	2.26	2.1036	-6.92%	1.201	-46.86%	0.4072	✓	1.37	3.3M	2022-03-10
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	5.215	4.8519	-6.96%	4.2989	-17.57%	0.0154	✓	1.22	442k	2022-03-10
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	23.02	21.405	-7.02%	16.62	-27.80%	0.1248	✓	1.15	26.9M	2022-03-10
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	5.53	5.1398	-7.06%	4.473	-19.11%	0.0034	✓	1.22	2.7M	2022-03-10
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	1.05	0.974357	-7.20%	0.61	-41.90%	0.2526	✓	1.93	1.0M	2022-03-10
XYM	Symbol	native	0.1858	0.17235	-7.24%	0.1369	-26.32%	0.1508	✓	0.71	423k	2022-03-10
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	4.65	4.31	-7.31%	2.98	-35.91%	0.2169	✓	1.36	8.3M	2022-03-10
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	101.7616	94.1958	-7.43%	51.3064	-49.58%	0.4496	✓	1.42	320k	2022-03-10
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	25,530.13	23,592.96	-7.59%	19,059.42	-25.35%	0.1082	✓	0.94	11.8M	2022-03-10
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	3.42	3.1539	-7.78%	2.046	-40.18%	0.2779	✓	1.39	20.8M	2022-03-10
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0344	0.031677	-7.92%	0.02397	-30.32%	0.1111	✓	1.50	490k	2022-03-10
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	2.11	1.9408	-8.02%	1.33	-36.97%	0.2347	✓	1.28	1.3M	2022-03-10
ASTR	Astar	Ethereum	0.123	0.11291	-8.20%	0.107	-13.01%	0.0577	✓	1.00	81k	2022-03-10
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	3	2.7435	-8.55%	1.79	-40.33%	0.2839	✓	1.28	407k	2022-03-10
POKT	Pocket Network	Ethereum	1.3504	1.2316	-8.80%	0.7483	-44.59%	0.3868	✓	1.00	2.1M	2022-03-10
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		8.653	7.8247	-9.57%	5.737	-33.70%	0.2747	✓	0.32	38k	2022-03-10
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	8.65	7.7779	-10.08%	5.7	-34.10%	0.2728	✓	0.34	1.6M	2022-03-10

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.