XEF

Xeffy · native · gru_s1

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 360

Track record at +7d

assessed

113

of 120 predictions shown

direction hit

54.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1903

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0508

actual -0.0467

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.004362	0.004197	-3.78%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.004169	-3.94%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.004189	-4.04%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.00412	-4.18%	–	pending	–	–	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.004323	-4.39%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.004334	-4.63%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.004358	-4.87%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.004125	-4.95%	0.004362	+0.52%	0.0602	✗	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.003962	-4.88%	0.00434	+4.19%	0.0905	✗	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.003912	-5.06%	0.004365	+5.95%	0.1100	✗	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.003817	-4.87%	0.0043	+7.15%	0.1178	✗	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.003842	-4.99%	0.004521	+11.81%	0.1628	✗	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.003845	-5.09%	0.004544	+12.18%	0.1670	✗	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.003718	-5.10%	0.004581	+16.92%	0.2089	✗	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.003931	-5.11%	0.004339	+4.75%	0.0966	✗	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.00392	-4.85%	0.004166	+1.11%	0.0606	✗	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.003877	-4.92%	0.00412	+1.05%	0.0592	✗	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.004212	-4.98%	0.004012	-9.48%	0.0528	✓	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.003617	-5.23%	0.004044	+5.94%	0.1070	✗	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.004733	-5.12%	0.004051	-18.79%	0.1601	✓	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.004761	-5.10%	0.003918	-21.90%	0.2013	✓	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.004728	-5.69%	0.004142	-17.37%	0.1340	✓	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.004039	-5.37%	0.00412	-3.46%	0.0325	✓	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.004292	-5.49%	0.004078	-10.21%	0.0369	✓	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.004223	-5.20%	0.004432	-0.50%	0.0581	✗	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.004383	-5.06%	0.003817	-17.32%	0.1366	✓	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.004487	-5.10%	0.004988	+5.50%	0.1079	✗	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.004838	-5.42%	0.005017	-1.93%	0.0386	✓	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.004216	-4.96%	0.005013	+13.01%	0.1691	✗	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.004163	-4.39%	0.004268	-1.98%	0.0151	✓	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.004156	-4.15%	0.004541	+4.73%	0.0787	✗	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.004148	-5.13%	0.004455	+1.88%	0.0856	✗	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.004337	-4.96%	0.004617	+1.17%	0.0767	✗	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.004559	-4.90%	0.004728	-1.38%	0.0494	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.005047	-7.38%	0.005116	-6.12%	0.0316	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004212	-3.05%	0.004436	+2.11%	0.0703	✗	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.003795	-1.09%	0.004354	+13.47%	0.1932	✗	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.003837	-0.96%	0.004336	+11.93%	0.1533	✗	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003635	-0.28%	0.004372	+19.94%	0.1980	✗	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.003121	+2.14%	0.004563	+49.34%	0.3896	✓	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.003874	-0.27%	0.004794	+23.43%	0.2226	✗	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.003964	-0.10%	0.005449	+37.31%	0.3176	✗	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.004015	+0.13%	0.004344	+8.34%	0.0733	✓	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.004815	-1.75%	0.003837	-21.71%	0.2355	✓	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.004765	-1.45%	0.003874	-19.87%	0.2094	✓	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.004708	-0.20%	0.003645	-22.73%	0.2648	✓	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.004558	+0.63%	0.003056	-32.54%	0.4065	✗	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.004779	+0.75%	0.003884	-18.12%	0.2138	✗	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.00511	+0.86%	0.003968	-21.67%	0.2674	✗	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.004992	-0.47%	0.00401	-20.06%	0.2153	✓	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.004979	-0.27%	0.004901	-1.83%	0.0117	✓	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.004657	-0.27%	0.004835	+3.54%	0.0393	✗	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.005036	-0.21%	0.004718	-6.51%	0.0572	✓	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005087	-0.34%	0.004529	-11.27%	0.1114	✓	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.00516	-0.76%	0.004744	-8.76%	0.0786	✓	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.005356	-0.53%	0.005066	-5.91%	0.0523	✓	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.005351	-1.23%	0.005016	-7.41%	0.0708	✓	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.005147	-1.61%	0.004993	-4.55%	0.0345	✓	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.00518	-1.83%	0.004669	-11.50%	0.1052	✓	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.005051	-2.43%	0.005046	-2.52%	0.0012	✓	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.004942	-2.85%	0.005104	+0.35%	0.0371	✗	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.004782	-2.93%	0.005199	+5.53%	0.0818	✗	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.005545	-4.07%	0.005385	-6.84%	0.0406	✓	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.005466	-4.92%	0.005417	-5.76%	0.0193	✓	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.005478	-5.87%	0.005231	-10.11%	0.0636	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.005536	-6.02%	0.005276	-10.42%	0.0662	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.005604	-6.44%	0.005177	-13.58%	0.0999	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.005608	-6.41%	0.005087	-15.11%	0.1175	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.005551	-6.18%	0.004926	-16.73%	0.1402	✓	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.005565	-6.13%	0.00578	-2.51%	0.0234	✓	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.005685	-6.31%	0.005749	-5.27%	0.0019	✓	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.006043	-6.66%	0.00582	-10.11%	0.0395	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.006321	-7.02%	0.00589	-13.35%	0.0713	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.006299	-7.13%	0.00599	-11.68%	0.0469	✓	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.006001	-7.02%	0.005993	-7.16%	0.0017	✓	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.006426	-7.43%	0.005916	-14.78%	0.0793	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.006534	-7.66%	0.005929	-16.21%	0.0956	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.006705	-8.41%	0.006068	-17.10%	0.0977	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.006031	-8.19%	0.006474	-1.44%	0.0711	✓	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.005847	-8.40%	0.006798	+6.50%	0.1508	✗	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.00557	-8.23%	0.006782	+11.74%	0.1972	✗	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.005467	-8.22%	0.006455	+8.37%	0.1681	✗	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.005507	-8.36%	0.006942	+15.52%	0.2335	✗	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.005489	-8.19%	0.007076	+18.34%	0.2539	✗	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.005541	-8.10%	0.00732	+21.41%	0.2786	✗	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.005402	-7.72%	0.006568	+12.21%	0.1956	✗	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.005643	-7.81%	0.006383	+4.27%	0.1231	✗	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.005808	-8.33%	0.00607	-4.21%	0.0428	✓	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.005778	-8.48%	0.005956	-5.66%	0.0283	✓	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.005733	-8.68%	0.006009	-4.27%	0.0452	✓	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.005673	-8.66%	0.005979	-3.72%	0.0523	✓	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.005612	-8.49%	0.006029	-1.67%	0.0720	✓	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.005759	-9.41%	0.005854	-7.92%	0.0162	✓	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.005659	-9.47%	0.006121	-2.07%	0.0765	✓	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.00536	-7.61%	0.006336	+9.22%	0.1692	✗	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.005349	-7.79%	0.006314	+8.84%	0.1645	✗	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.00534	-7.90%	0.006277	+8.26%	0.1624	✗	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.00553	-8.46%	0.006211	+2.81%	0.1207	✗	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.005547	-9.16%	0.006132	+0.41%	0.1045	✗	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.00576	-10.71%	0.006357	-1.44%	0.0755	✓	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.005017	-7.78%	0.00625	+14.89%	0.1736	✗	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.005333	-9.04%	0.005801	-1.05%	0.0695	✓	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.004982	-9.14%	0.005801	+5.80%	0.1363	✗	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.004568	-8.64%	0.005798	+15.97%	0.2421	✗	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.004982	-10.99%	0.006041	+7.93%	0.1833	✗	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.003833	-6.09%	0.006107	+49.61%	0.4267	✗	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.003649	-5.55%	0.00645	+66.95%	0.5436	✗	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.0031	-4.32%	0.00544	+67.91%	0.5899	✗	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.003106	-4.20%	0.005863	+80.84%	0.6329	✗	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.002867	-4.43%	0.005483	+82.76%	0.6375	✗	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.002282	-6.56%	0.005	+104.73%	0.7590	✗	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.006385	-3.62%	0.005597	-15.51%	0.1588	✓	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.007008	-2.52%	0.004082	-43.22%	0.5778	✓	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.0068	-1.92%	0.003864	-44.27%	0.6441	✓	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.007715	-2.51%	0.00324	-59.06%	0.9294	✓	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.008561	-2.55%	0.003242	-63.10%	1.0379	✓	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.008757	-2.61%	0.003	-66.64%	1.1225	✓	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.008935	-2.56%	0.002442	-73.37%	1.3381	✓	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.009092	-2.38%	0.006625	-28.87%	0.3460	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.010148	-2.91%	0.007189	-31.22%	0.3278	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.