XEF

Xeffy · native · gru_s1

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 360

Track record at +1d

assessed

119

of 120 predictions shown

direction hit

52.9%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0615

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0095

actual -0.0077

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.004362	0.004336	-0.58%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.004313	-0.62%	0.004362	+0.50%	0.0102	✗	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.004338	-0.64%	0.00434	-0.57%	0.0052	✓	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.004272	-0.63%	0.004365	+1.53%	0.0208	✗	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.004489	-0.72%	0.0043	-4.90%	0.0407	✓	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.004508	-0.80%	0.004521	-0.51%	0.0025	✓	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.00454	-0.90%	0.004544	-0.80%	0.0014	✓	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.004302	-0.86%	0.004581	+5.57%	0.0650	✗	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.004132	-0.80%	0.004339	+4.17%	0.0436	✗	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.004086	-0.83%	0.004166	+1.10%	0.0240	✗	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.003981	-0.79%	0.00412	+2.69%	0.0330	✗	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.004011	-0.82%	0.004012	-0.77%	0.0005	✓	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.004017	-0.84%	0.004044	-0.18%	0.0067	✓	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.003889	-0.74%	0.004051	+3.39%	0.0412	✗	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.004109	-0.81%	0.003918	-5.42%	0.0497	✓	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.004089	-0.75%	0.004142	+0.54%	0.0128	✗	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.004048	-0.72%	0.00412	+1.04%	0.0175	✗	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.004392	-0.92%	0.004078	-8.01%	0.0753	✓	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.003792	-0.66%	0.004432	+16.13%	0.1603	✗	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.004945	-0.86%	0.003817	-23.48%	0.2584	✓	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.004972	-0.90%	0.004988	-0.58%	0.0026	✓	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.004953	-1.19%	0.005017	+0.08%	0.0211	✗	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.004232	-0.84%	0.005013	+17.46%	0.1688	✗	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.004496	-0.99%	0.004268	-6.02%	0.0510	✓	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.004414	-0.90%	0.004541	+1.95%	0.0235	✗	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.004577	-0.86%	0.004455	-3.51%	0.0269	✓	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.004685	-0.90%	0.004617	-2.36%	0.0132	✓	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.005047	-1.35%	0.004728	-7.58%	0.0667	✓	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.004391	-1.00%	0.005116	+15.33%	0.1528	✗	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.004314	-0.91%	0.004436	+1.88%	0.0208	✗	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.004299	-0.87%	0.004354	+0.40%	0.0115	✗	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.004329	-0.99%	0.004336	-0.82%	0.0249	✗	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.004518	-1.00%	0.004372	-4.19%	0.0331	✓	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.004745	-1.02%	0.004563	-4.81%	0.0376	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.005329	-2.20%	0.004794	-12.02%	0.0954	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004307	-0.85%	0.005449	+25.44%	0.2357	✗	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.003827	-0.26%	0.004344	+13.22%	0.1298	✗	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.003863	-0.29%	0.003837	-0.96%	0.0170	✓	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003638	-0.20%	0.003874	+6.28%	0.0672	✗	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.003068	+0.40%	0.003645	+19.30%	0.1712	✓	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.003878	-0.15%	0.003056	-21.33%	0.2382	✓	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.003966	-0.07%	0.003884	-2.12%	0.0190	✓	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.004008	-0.03%	0.003968	-1.03%	0.0145	✓	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.004874	-0.55%	0.00401	-18.19%	0.1958	✓	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.004812	-0.47%	0.004901	+1.38%	0.0166	✗	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.00471	-0.17%	0.004835	+2.48%	0.0232	✗	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.00453	+0.00%	0.004718	+4.16%	0.0420	✓	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.004744	+0.01%	0.004529	-4.52%	0.0459	✗	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.005064	-0.04%	0.004744	-6.37%	0.0702	✓	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.005006	-0.20%	0.005066	+1.01%	0.0273	✗	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.004983	-0.20%	0.005016	+0.46%	0.0063	✗	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.004664	-0.11%	0.004993	+6.93%	0.0643	✗	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.005039	-0.13%	0.004669	-7.47%	0.0736	✓	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005096	-0.16%	0.005046	-1.14%	0.0116	✓	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.005186	-0.24%	0.005104	-1.82%	0.0147	✓	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.005369	-0.30%	0.005199	-3.45%	0.0405	✓	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.005395	-0.41%	0.005385	-0.60%	0.0024	✓	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.005209	-0.42%	0.005417	+3.57%	0.0411	✗	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.005251	-0.48%	0.005231	-0.86%	0.0055	✓	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.005151	-0.50%	0.005276	+1.93%	0.0290	✗	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.005062	-0.49%	0.005177	+1.76%	0.0251	✗	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.004906	-0.42%	0.005087	+3.26%	0.0316	✗	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.005741	-0.68%	0.004926	-14.77%	0.1614	✓	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.005706	-0.74%	0.00578	+0.54%	0.0088	✗	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.005768	-0.88%	0.005749	-1.22%	0.0097	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.005836	-0.92%	0.00582	-1.20%	0.0032	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.005929	-1.02%	0.00589	-1.66%	0.0091	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.005931	-1.03%	0.00599	-0.04%	0.0102	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.005859	-0.97%	0.005993	+1.29%	0.0225	✗	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.005873	-0.95%	0.005916	-0.21%	0.0081	✓	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.006011	-0.95%	0.005929	-2.30%	0.0137	✓	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.006403	-1.10%	0.006068	-6.27%	0.0535	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.006709	-1.30%	0.006474	-4.76%	0.0352	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.006688	-1.39%	0.006798	+0.23%	0.0178	✗	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.006377	-1.21%	0.006782	+5.07%	0.0617	✗	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.006843	-1.43%	0.006455	-7.02%	0.0584	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.006973	-1.46%	0.006942	-1.89%	0.0055	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.007179	-1.93%	0.007076	-3.33%	0.0138	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.006457	-1.69%	0.00732	+11.45%	0.1252	✗	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.006271	-1.76%	0.006568	+2.91%	0.0465	✗	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.00597	-1.63%	0.006383	+5.16%	0.0668	✗	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.005861	-1.60%	0.00607	+1.90%	0.0356	✗	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.005909	-1.66%	0.005956	-0.88%	0.0079	✓	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.005884	-1.59%	0.006009	+0.50%	0.0211	✗	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.005936	-1.54%	0.005979	-0.82%	0.0074	✓	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.005774	-1.36%	0.006029	+3.00%	0.0432	✗	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.00604	-1.33%	0.005854	-4.37%	0.0313	✓	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.006232	-1.64%	0.006121	-3.39%	0.0191	✓	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.006204	-1.73%	0.006336	+0.36%	0.0224	✗	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.006159	-1.88%	0.006314	+0.58%	0.0251	✗	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.006092	-1.92%	0.006277	+1.07%	0.0292	✗	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.006021	-1.81%	0.006211	+1.29%	0.0311	✗	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.006208	-2.35%	0.006132	-3.54%	0.0123	✓	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.006094	-2.50%	0.006357	+1.71%	0.0440	✗	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.005715	-1.48%	0.00625	+7.74%	0.0910	✗	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.005713	-1.52%	0.005801	+0.01%	0.0151	✓	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.005709	-1.54%	0.005801	+0.04%	0.0192	✗	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.005939	-1.69%	0.005798	-4.02%	0.0235	✓	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.00599	-1.91%	0.006041	-1.07%	0.0055	✓	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.006266	-2.86%	0.006107	-5.32%	0.0215	✓	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.005356	-1.55%	0.00645	+18.56%	0.1431	✗	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.00575	-1.93%	0.00544	-7.20%	0.0319	✓	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.005371	-2.04%	0.005863	+6.93%	0.0881	✗	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.004913	-1.75%	0.005483	+9.66%	0.1154	✗	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.00541	-3.35%	0.005	-10.67%	0.0937	✓	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.004025	-1.39%	0.005597	+37.13%	0.3148	✗	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.003819	-1.14%	0.004082	+5.64%	0.0837	✗	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.003223	-0.54%	0.003864	+19.25%	0.1921	✗	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.003228	-0.41%	0.00324	-0.06%	0.0030	✓	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.002992	-0.25%	0.003242	+8.06%	0.0722	✗	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.002438	-0.18%	0.003	+22.84%	0.1985	✗	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.00657	-0.82%	0.002442	-63.13%	1.0064	✓	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.007165	-0.33%	0.006625	-7.85%	0.1036	✓	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.006923	-0.14%	0.007189	+3.69%	0.0134	✗	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.00789	-0.29%	0.006933	-12.39%	0.1018	✓	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.008753	-0.37%	0.007913	-9.92%	0.1124	✓	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.008959	-0.37%	0.008785	-2.31%	0.0119	✓	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.009137	-0.36%	0.008992	-1.93%	0.0148	✓	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.009285	-0.30%	0.009169	-1.55%	0.0176	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.010402	-0.48%	0.009313	-10.90%	0.0893	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.