XEF

Xeffy · native · gru_s1

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 360

Track record at +30d

assessed

90

of 120 predictions shown

direction hit

64.4%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2153

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.1196

actual -0.0978

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.004362	0.003946	-9.52%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.003925	-9.58%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.003929	-9.99%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.003853	-10.37%	–	pending	–	–	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.004038	-10.68%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.004043	-11.04%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.004063	-11.31%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.003829	-11.77%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.003681	-11.64%	–	pending	–	–	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.003619	-12.16%	–	pending	–	–	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.003548	-11.58%	–	pending	–	–	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.003562	-11.92%	–	pending	–	–	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.003559	-12.14%	–	pending	–	–	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.003423	-12.64%	–	pending	–	–	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.003642	-12.09%	–	pending	–	–	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.003655	-11.28%	–	pending	–	–	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.003615	-11.35%	–	pending	–	–	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.003965	-10.54%	–	pending	–	–	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.003345	-12.36%	–	pending	–	–	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.004419	-11.41%	–	pending	–	–	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.004466	-10.99%	–	pending	–	–	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.004433	-11.57%	–	pending	–	–	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.00376	-11.90%	–	pending	–	–	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.004013	-11.63%	–	pending	–	–	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.003967	-10.94%	–	pending	–	–	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.004123	-10.70%	–	pending	–	–	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.004231	-10.51%	–	pending	–	–	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.004632	-9.45%	–	pending	–	–	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.004012	-9.56%	–	pending	–	–	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.004014	-7.80%	–	pending	–	–	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.004029	-7.10%	0.004362	+0.58%	0.0670	✓	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.003897	-10.88%	0.00434	-0.73%	0.1156	✗	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.004093	-10.31%	0.004365	-4.34%	0.0671	✓	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.004311	-10.07%	0.0043	-10.32%	0.0019	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.004717	-13.43%	0.004521	-17.03%	0.0309	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004022	-7.42%	0.004544	+4.61%	0.1344	✗	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.003628	-5.44%	0.004581	+19.39%	0.2685	✗	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.003718	-4.02%	0.004339	+12.01%	0.1673	✗	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003512	-3.67%	0.004166	+14.28%	0.1898	✗	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.00298	-2.47%	0.00412	+34.84%	0.3349	✗	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.003739	-3.73%	0.004012	+3.30%	0.0868	✗	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.003819	-3.75%	0.004044	+1.89%	0.0731	✗	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.003912	-2.43%	0.004051	+1.04%	0.0455	✗	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.004688	-4.34%	0.003918	-20.06%	0.1704	✓	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.004648	-3.86%	0.004142	-14.32%	0.1040	✓	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.004655	-1.32%	0.00412	-12.67%	0.1098	✓	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.004551	+0.47%	0.004078	-9.97%	0.0952	✗	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.004816	+1.52%	0.004432	-6.56%	0.0661	✗	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.005233	+3.29%	0.003817	-24.66%	0.3053	✗	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.004958	-1.14%	0.004988	-0.55%	0.0331	✗	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.004986	-0.15%	0.005017	+0.48%	0.0341	✗	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.004635	-0.73%	0.005013	+7.36%	0.0942	✗	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.005051	+0.10%	0.004268	-15.43%	0.1510	✗	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005121	+0.32%	0.004541	-11.03%	0.1048	✗	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.005179	-0.38%	0.004455	-14.32%	0.1315	✓	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.005482	+1.80%	0.004617	-14.26%	0.1582	✗	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.00541	-0.14%	0.004728	-12.72%	0.1175	✓	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.005156	-1.43%	0.005116	-2.20%	0.0126	✓	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.005195	-1.53%	0.004436	-15.93%	0.1394	✓	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.004994	-3.52%	0.004354	-15.89%	0.1059	✓	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.004838	-4.90%	0.004336	-14.75%	0.0731	✓	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.004676	-5.08%	0.004372	-11.25%	0.0573	✓	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.005314	-8.06%	0.004563	-21.05%	0.1650	✓	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.00513	-10.77%	0.004794	-16.60%	0.0799	✓	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.005032	-13.53%	0.005449	-6.36%	0.0646	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.00508	-13.75%	0.004344	-26.25%	0.1715	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.005107	-14.75%	0.003837	-35.94%	0.3037	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.005117	-14.61%	0.003874	-35.35%	0.2996	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.005074	-14.24%	0.003645	-38.39%	0.3497	✓	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.005089	-14.16%	0.003056	-48.46%	0.5305	✓	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.005184	-14.58%	0.003884	-35.99%	0.3090	✓	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.005515	-14.82%	0.003968	-38.70%	0.3475	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.005785	-14.89%	0.00401	-41.02%	0.3841	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.005786	-14.69%	0.004901	-27.73%	0.1862	✓	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.005486	-15.01%	0.004835	-25.10%	0.1479	✓	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.005887	-15.20%	0.004718	-32.04%	0.2452	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.005964	-15.72%	0.004529	-35.99%	0.3002	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.00616	-15.85%	0.004744	-35.20%	0.2842	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.005505	-16.19%	0.005066	-22.87%	0.0877	✓	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.005323	-16.61%	0.005016	-21.42%	0.0562	✓	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.005059	-16.65%	0.004993	-17.74%	0.0094	✓	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.004948	-16.94%	0.004669	-21.61%	0.0448	✓	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.004984	-17.06%	0.005046	-16.03%	0.0248	✓	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.004985	-16.64%	0.005104	-14.63%	0.0234	✓	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.005016	-16.80%	0.005199	-13.77%	0.0385	✓	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.004883	-16.58%	0.005385	-8.01%	0.1026	✓	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.005087	-16.89%	0.005417	-11.50%	0.0661	✓	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.005268	-16.85%	0.005231	-17.44%	0.0009	✓	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.00523	-17.16%	0.005276	-16.43%	0.0265	✓	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.005194	-17.25%	0.005177	-17.53%	0.0153	✓	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.005153	-17.03%	0.005087	-18.09%	0.0042	✓	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.005099	-16.84%	0.004926	-19.66%	0.0354	✓	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.005253	-17.37%	0.00578	-9.08%	0.0958	✓	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.00515	-17.60%	0.005749	-8.03%	0.1154	✓	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.004836	-16.64%	0.00582	+0.32%	0.1852	✗	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.00482	-16.91%	0.00589	+1.54%	0.1997	✗	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.004797	-17.27%	0.00599	+3.30%	0.2182	✗	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.004947	-18.11%	0.005993	-0.80%	0.1889	✓	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.004958	-18.81%	0.005916	-3.12%	0.1711	✓	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.005182	-19.66%	0.005929	-8.08%	0.1590	✓	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.00447	-17.83%	0.006068	+11.55%	0.2874	✗	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.004741	-19.13%	0.006474	+10.43%	0.3148	✗	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.004431	-19.19%	0.006798	+23.98%	0.4259	✗	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.004049	-19.02%	0.006782	+35.64%	0.5047	✗	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.004506	-19.50%	0.006455	+15.32%	0.3324	✗	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.003416	-16.32%	0.006942	+70.08%	0.6675	✗	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.003232	-16.34%	0.007076	+83.15%	0.7688	✗	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.002708	-16.43%	0.00732	+125.94%	0.9852	✗	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.002713	-16.31%	0.006568	+102.62%	0.8768	✗	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.002476	-17.48%	0.006383	+112.76%	0.9411	✗	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.001906	-21.95%	0.00607	+148.53%	1.1427	✗	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.00601	-9.27%	0.005956	-10.09%	0.0297	✓	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.006516	-9.36%	0.006009	-16.41%	0.1276	✓	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.006285	-9.34%	0.005979	-13.75%	0.1505	✓	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.007176	-9.32%	0.006029	-23.81%	0.2343	✓	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.007969	-9.28%	0.005854	-33.37%	0.3795	✓	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.008147	-9.39%	0.006121	-31.93%	0.3468	✓	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.008303	-9.45%	0.006336	-30.90%	0.3555	✓	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.008435	-9.43%	0.006314	-32.21%	0.3638	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.009443	-9.66%	0.006277	-39.94%	0.4579	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.