UPROBINHOOD

? · · gru_s1

token id: #949
symbol: UPROBINHOOD
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-11
predictions: 189

Track record at +1d

assessed

62

of 63 predictions shown

direction hit

61.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1473

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0154

actual +0.0133

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.276795	0.274052	-0.99%	–	pending	–	–	2.34
2026-10-20	oos	0.277585	0.273844	-1.35%	0.276795	-0.28%	0.0176	✗	2.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.24885	0.24595	-1.17%	0.277585	+11.55%	0.0900	✗	2.32
2026-10-18	oos	0.21966	0.217894	-0.80%	0.24885	+13.29%	0.1377	✗	2.35
2026-10-17	oos	0.23107	0.229358	-0.74%	0.21966	-4.94%	0.0612	✓	2.35
2026-10-16	oos	0.28208	0.278588	-1.24%	0.23107	-18.08%	0.1836	✓	2.32
2026-10-15	oos	0.279945	0.276308	-1.30%	0.28208	+0.76%	0.0385	✗	2.33
2026-10-14	oos	0.27437	0.27102	-1.22%	0.279945	+2.03%	0.0165	✗	2.33
2026-10-13	oos	0.297375	0.289709	-2.58%	0.27437	-7.74%	0.0112	✓	2.31
2026-10-12	oos	0.198445	0.197995	-0.23%	0.297375	+49.85%	0.3711	✗	2.16
2026-10-11	oos	0.23632	0.233826	-1.06%	0.198445	-16.03%	0.1159	✓	2.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.20848	0.207706	-0.37%	0.23632	+13.35%	0.1103	✗	2.04
2026-10-09	oos	0.20578	0.205347	-0.21%	0.20848	+1.31%	0.0061	✗	2.04
2026-10-08	oos	0.19801	0.19819	+0.09%	0.20578	+3.92%	0.0165	✓	2.03
2026-10-07	oos	0.22919	0.228551	-0.28%	0.19801	-13.60%	0.1059	✓	1.96
2026-10-06	oos	0.24363	0.242419	-0.50%	0.22919	-5.93%	0.0034	✓	1.96
2026-10-05	oos	0.266405	0.264289	-0.79%	0.24363	-8.55%	0.0766	✓	1.94
2026-10-04	oos	0.28781	0.284603	-1.11%	0.266405	-7.44%	0.0492	✓	1.92
2026-10-03	oos	0.290305	0.287298	-1.04%	0.28781	-0.86%	0.0382	✓	1.94
2026-10-02	oos	0.27341	0.271792	-0.59%	0.290305	+6.18%	0.0604	✗	1.95
2026-10-01	oos	0.29989	0.29779	-0.70%	0.27341	-8.83%	0.0776	✓	1.92
2026-09-30	oos	0.40591	0.399316	-1.62%	0.29989	-26.12%	0.3176	✓	2.04
2026-09-29	oos	0.39374	0.385493	-2.09%	0.40591	+3.09%	0.0536	✗	2.05
2026-09-28	oos	0.291185	0.289589	-0.55%	0.39374	+35.22%	0.3027	✗	2.08
2026-09-27	oos	0.31507	0.312588	-0.79%	0.291185	-7.58%	0.0463	✓	2.06
2026-09-26	oos	0.36447	0.359918	-1.25%	0.31507	-13.55%	0.1342	✓	2.03
2026-09-25	oos	0.33586	0.332756	-0.92%	0.36447	+8.52%	0.0832	✗	2.04
2026-09-24	oos	0.33996	0.3372	-0.81%	0.33586	-1.21%	0.0031	✓	2.04
2026-09-23	oos	0.39528	0.390889	-1.11%	0.33996	-14.00%	0.1398	✓	2.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.482965	0.475372	-1.57%	0.39528	-18.16%	0.1453	✓	1.84
2026-09-21	oos	0.55709	0.544531	-2.25%	0.482965	-13.31%	0.1118	✓	1.78
2026-09-20	oos	0.46212	0.455443	-1.44%	0.55709	+20.55%	0.0980	✗	1.60
2026-09-19	oos	0.485615	0.478436	-1.48%	0.46212	-4.84%	0.0333	✓	1.58
2026-09-18	oos	0.58476	0.56912	-2.67%	0.485615	-16.95%	0.1656	✓	1.56
2026-09-17	oos	0.47322	0.463455	-2.06%	0.58476	+23.57%	0.1598	✗	1.26
2026-09-16	oos	0.37378	0.369656	-1.10%	0.47322	+26.60%	0.2435	✗	1.29
2026-09-15	oos	0.318955	0.317445	-0.47%	0.37378	+17.19%	0.1540	✗	1.27
2026-09-14	oos	0.37084	0.367649	-0.86%	0.318955	-13.99%	0.1068	✓	1.05
2026-09-13	oos	0.379015	0.375212	-1.00%	0.37084	-2.16%	0.0308	✓	1.07
2026-09-12	oos	0.353985	0.35132	-0.75%	0.379015	+7.07%	0.0826	✗	1.12
2026-09-11	oos	0.382085	0.37865	-0.90%	0.353985	-7.35%	0.0681	✓	1.10
2026-09-10	oos	0.396465	0.392638	-0.97%	0.382085	-3.63%	0.0369	✓	1.11
2026-09-09	oos	0.41882	0.414705	-0.98%	0.396465	-5.34%	0.0224	✓	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.50196	0.49569	-1.25%	0.41882	-16.56%	0.1664	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.55791	0.550358	-1.35%	0.50196	-10.03%	0.0839	✓	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.679235	0.667765	-1.69%	0.55791	-17.86%	0.1641	✓	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.790295	0.766908	-2.96%	0.679235	-14.05%	0.1277	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.63101	0.620064	-1.73%	0.790295	+25.24%	0.2406	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.76968	0.751019	-2.42%	0.63101	-18.02%	0.1544	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.838135	0.812095	-3.11%	0.76968	-8.17%	0.1036	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.87428	0.838344	-4.11%	0.838135	-4.13%	0.0009	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.91438	0.858297	-6.13%	0.87428	-4.39%	0.0334	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.52462	0.500611	-4.58%	0.91438	+74.29%	0.5909	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.32435	0.315335	-2.78%	0.52462	+61.75%	0.5163	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.24126	0.237747	-1.46%	0.32435	+34.44%	0.3056	✗	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.26469	0.260424	-1.61%	0.24126	-8.85%	0.0456	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.37223	0.352978	-5.17%	0.26469	-28.89%	0.3035	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.15754	0.155521	-1.28%	0.37223	+136.28%	0.8664	✗	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.19865	0.192642	-3.02%	0.15754	-20.69%	0.1954	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.1409	0.137311	-2.55%	0.19865	+40.99%	0.3533	✗	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.0851	0.084518	-0.68%	0.1409	+65.57%	0.5024	✗	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.1107	0.109598	-1.00%	0.0851	-23.13%	0.2366	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.1054	0.104748	-0.62%	0.1107	+5.03%	0.0150	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.