UMX

UMX · · gru_s1

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 201

Track record at +7d

assessed

60

of 67 predictions shown

direction hit

83.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0607

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0319

actual -0.0708

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.0466	0.045535	-2.29%	–	pending	–	–	0.19
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.041807	-2.58%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.053678	-2.67%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.054233	-2.11%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.054709	-2.04%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.057934	-1.97%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.057879	-1.97%	–	pending	–	–	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.058147	-2.01%	0.0466	-21.47%	0.2254	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.058209	-2.04%	0.042915	-27.78%	0.3042	✓	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.059236	-1.96%	0.05515	-8.72%	0.0718	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.059014	-1.98%	0.055405	-7.97%	0.0560	✓	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.059496	-1.94%	0.05585	-7.94%	0.0567	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.059747	-1.97%	0.059095	-3.04%	0.0065	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.059293	-2.04%	0.059045	-2.45%	0.0060	✓	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.06041	-2.29%	0.05934	-4.02%	0.0105	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.060311	-2.27%	0.05942	-3.72%	0.0032	✓	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.059976	-2.78%	0.06042	-2.06%	0.0271	✓	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.060011	-2.75%	0.060205	-2.44%	0.0176	✓	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.059537	-3.03%	0.06067	-1.18%	0.0279	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.059746	-3.17%	0.060945	-1.22%	0.0296	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.059593	-3.07%	0.06053	-1.55%	0.0318	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.05927	-3.45%	0.061825	+0.71%	0.0436	✗	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.059193	-3.30%	0.061715	+0.83%	0.0322	✓	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.058496	-3.50%	0.06169	+1.77%	0.0415	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.058624	-3.48%	0.06171	+1.60%	0.0404	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.058902	-3.54%	0.061395	+0.55%	0.0397	✗	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.058632	-3.75%	0.0617	+1.29%	0.0487	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.058815	-3.85%	0.06148	+0.51%	0.0417	✗	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.05878	-3.91%	0.06139	+0.36%	0.0482	✗	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.058545	-3.61%	0.06121	+0.78%	0.0610	✗	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.058957	-3.62%	0.060615	-0.91%	0.0486	✗	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.058704	-4.45%	0.06074	-1.13%	0.0122	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.057847	-4.32%	0.06106	+0.99%	0.0323	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.05874	-4.28%	0.060915	-0.74%	0.0142	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.058702	-4.00%	0.06117	+0.03%	0.0103	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.059534	-3.99%	0.06117	-1.35%	0.0259	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.058732	-3.50%	0.060735	-0.21%	0.0329	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.058384	-3.53%	0.06117	+1.07%	0.0206	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.05884	-3.18%	0.061435	+1.09%	0.0084	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.060551	-3.27%	0.06046	-3.41%	0.0340	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.062827	-3.41%	0.06137	-5.65%	0.0537	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.062964	-3.22%	0.06115	-6.01%	0.0277	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.062874	-3.06%	0.06201	-4.39%	0.0073	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.064445	-3.08%	0.06086	-8.47%	0.0283	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.06587	-3.22%	0.06052	-11.08%	0.0752	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.067776	-3.08%	0.060775	-13.09%	0.0692	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.069543	-3.24%	0.062595	-12.91%	0.0726	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.069849	-3.08%	0.065045	-9.75%	0.0398	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.070904	-3.04%	0.06506	-11.04%	0.0261	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.071912	-3.14%	0.06486	-12.63%	0.1158	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.072051	-3.13%	0.066495	-10.60%	0.0937	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.072655	-3.06%	0.068065	-9.19%	0.0720	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.073461	-3.07%	0.06993	-7.73%	0.0831	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.072958	-2.89%	0.071875	-4.33%	0.0352	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.074092	-2.93%	0.07207	-5.58%	0.0510	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.074825	-2.77%	0.07313	-4.98%	0.0352	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.079538	-3.20%	0.07424	-9.65%	0.0469	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.080816	-3.27%	0.07438	-10.98%	0.0685	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.085435	-3.69%	0.07495	-15.51%	0.1256	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.083606	-3.59%	0.07579	-12.60%	0.0973	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.083526	-3.67%	0.07513	-13.35%	0.1211	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.080697	-3.31%	0.07633	-8.54%	0.0494	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.079975	-3.37%	0.07696	-7.01%	0.1333	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.081979	-3.40%	0.08217	-3.17%	0.1290	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.082622	-2.74%	0.08355	-1.65%	0.1828	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.082458	-2.59%	0.08871	+4.80%	0.1298	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.082631	-2.17%	0.08672	+2.68%	0.1644	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.