UMX

UMX · · gru_s1

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 201

Track record at +1d

assessed

66

of 67 predictions shown

direction hit

62.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0227

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0065

actual -0.0127

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.0466	0.046457	-0.31%	–	pending	–	–	0.19
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.042773	-0.33%	0.0466	+8.59%	0.0863	✗	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.054795	-0.64%	0.042915	-22.18%	0.2482	✓	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.055212	-0.35%	0.05515	-0.46%	0.0005	✓	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.055672	-0.32%	0.055405	-0.80%	0.0070	✓	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.058911	-0.31%	0.05585	-5.49%	0.0529	✓	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.058863	-0.31%	0.059095	+0.08%	0.0062	✗	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.059133	-0.35%	0.059045	-0.50%	0.0035	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.059196	-0.38%	0.05934	-0.13%	0.0084	✗	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.060195	-0.37%	0.05942	-1.66%	0.0182	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.059965	-0.40%	0.06042	+0.36%	0.0158	✗	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.060426	-0.40%	0.060205	-0.77%	0.0069	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.060692	-0.42%	0.06067	-0.45%	0.0019	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.060288	-0.40%	0.060945	+0.69%	0.0073	✗	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.061544	-0.45%	0.06053	-2.09%	0.0098	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.061453	-0.42%	0.061825	+0.18%	0.0169	✗	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.061348	-0.55%	0.061715	+0.04%	0.0070	✗	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.061354	-0.58%	0.06169	-0.03%	0.0093	✗	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.060999	-0.65%	0.06171	+0.51%	0.0031	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.061265	-0.71%	0.061395	-0.49%	0.0010	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.061099	-0.62%	0.0617	+0.36%	0.0115	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.06093	-0.75%	0.06148	+0.15%	0.0026	✓	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.060848	-0.59%	0.06139	+0.29%	0.0093	✗	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.060225	-0.64%	0.06121	+0.98%	0.0153	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.060345	-0.65%	0.060615	-0.21%	0.0099	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.060684	-0.62%	0.06074	-0.52%	0.0007	✓	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.060507	-0.67%	0.06106	+0.24%	0.0073	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.060729	-0.72%	0.060915	-0.42%	0.0047	✓	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.060718	-0.74%	0.06117	+0.00%	0.0074	✓	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.06034	-0.65%	0.06117	+0.72%	0.0254	✗	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.060758	-0.67%	0.060735	-0.71%	0.0022	✓	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.060907	-0.86%	0.06117	-0.43%	0.0313	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.059955	-0.84%	0.061435	+1.61%	0.0249	✗	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.060865	-0.82%	0.06046	-1.48%	0.0092	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.060683	-0.76%	0.06137	+0.36%	0.0184	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.061507	-0.81%	0.06115	-1.39%	0.0072	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.060439	-0.69%	0.06201	+1.89%	0.0219	✗	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.060096	-0.70%	0.06086	+0.56%	0.0348	✗	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.060396	-0.62%	0.06052	-0.42%	0.0091	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.062181	-0.66%	0.060775	-2.91%	0.0190	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.064569	-0.73%	0.062595	-3.77%	0.0315	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.064588	-0.73%	0.065045	-0.02%	0.0015	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.064416	-0.69%	0.06506	+0.31%	0.0271	✗	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.066032	-0.70%	0.06486	-2.46%	0.0163	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.06753	-0.79%	0.066495	-2.31%	0.0088	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.069442	-0.70%	0.068065	-2.67%	0.0062	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.071326	-0.76%	0.06993	-2.71%	0.0261	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.071579	-0.68%	0.071875	-0.27%	0.0022	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.072633	-0.68%	0.07207	-1.45%	0.0120	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.073741	-0.67%	0.07313	-1.50%	0.0582	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.073855	-0.71%	0.07424	-0.19%	0.0064	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.074412	-0.72%	0.07438	-0.76%	0.0145	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.075236	-0.73%	0.07495	-1.11%	0.0153	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.074612	-0.69%	0.07579	+0.88%	0.0230	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.07579	-0.71%	0.07513	-1.57%	0.0138	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.076426	-0.69%	0.07633	-0.82%	0.0296	✗	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.081487	-0.83%	0.07696	-6.34%	0.0728	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.082837	-0.85%	0.08217	-1.65%	0.0144	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.087757	-1.07%	0.08355	-5.82%	0.0434	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.085838	-1.02%	0.08871	+2.29%	0.0169	✗	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.085786	-1.07%	0.08672	+0.01%	0.0021	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.082644	-0.98%	0.08671	+3.89%	0.0644	✗	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.082089	-0.81%	0.08346	+0.85%	0.0537	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.084188	-0.79%	0.08276	-2.47%	0.0693	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.084436	-0.60%	0.08486	-0.11%	0.0640	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.08419	-0.54%	0.08495	+0.35%	0.0058	✗	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.08412	-0.40%	0.08465	+0.22%	0.0195	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.