UMX

UMX · · gru_s1

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 204

Track record at +30d

assessed

38

of 68 predictions shown

direction hit

100.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1946

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.1004

actual -0.2663

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.041845	0.040711	-2.71%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.03934	0.038458	-2.24%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.041542	-3.20%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.052814	-4.24%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.052839	-4.63%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.053115	-4.90%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.05619	-4.92%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.056441	-4.41%	–	pending	–	–	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.056859	-4.18%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.057765	-2.79%	–	pending	–	–	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.058366	-3.40%	–	pending	–	–	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.05906	-1.90%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.059216	-2.40%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.059252	-2.78%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.058143	-3.94%	–	pending	–	–	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.059362	-3.98%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.059874	-2.98%	–	pending	–	–	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.058499	-5.17%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.059204	-4.06%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.058332	-4.99%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.058724	-4.82%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.058796	-4.37%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.05788	-5.72%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.057589	-5.92%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.056775	-6.33%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.057291	-5.68%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.057235	-6.26%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.056608	-7.07%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.056684	-7.33%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.056373	-7.84%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.056736	-6.58%	0.041845	-31.10%	0.2917	✓	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.057069	-6.70%	0.03934	-35.69%	0.3550	✓	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.054084	-11.97%	0.042915	-30.15%	0.2432	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.053154	-12.08%	0.05515	-8.78%	0.0327	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.053693	-12.51%	0.055405	-9.72%	0.0235	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.052774	-13.70%	0.05585	-8.67%	0.0238	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.053366	-13.94%	0.059095	-4.70%	0.0669	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.052671	-13.46%	0.059045	-2.98%	0.0723	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.052433	-13.36%	0.05934	-1.95%	0.0958	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.05264	-13.38%	0.05942	-2.23%	0.0715	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.054065	-13.63%	0.06042	-3.47%	0.0746	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.056012	-13.89%	0.060205	-7.44%	0.0198	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.056054	-13.84%	0.06067	-6.75%	0.0279	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.056682	-12.61%	0.060945	-6.04%	0.0322	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.058419	-12.15%	0.06053	-8.97%	0.0039	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.060531	-11.07%	0.061825	-9.17%	0.0209	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.06357	-9.10%	0.061715	-11.75%	0.0850	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.065548	-8.80%	0.06169	-14.17%	0.1322	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.066173	-8.18%	0.06171	-14.37%	0.1521	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.069015	-5.63%	0.061395	-16.05%	0.1589	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.067593	-8.95%	0.0617	-16.89%	0.1802	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.068253	-8.24%	0.06148	-17.34%	0.1964	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.070021	-6.58%	0.06139	-18.09%	0.1932	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.070366	-7.16%	0.06121	-19.24%	0.2135	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.07049	-6.18%	0.060615	-19.32%	0.2155	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.071543	-6.27%	0.06074	-20.42%	0.2454	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.074102	-3.71%	0.06106	-20.66%	0.2439	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.078376	-4.62%	0.060915	-25.87%	0.3142	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.079487	-4.86%	0.06117	-26.79%	0.3339	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.084909	-4.28%	0.06117	-31.04%	0.3940	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.082124	-5.30%	0.060735	-29.96%	0.4051	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.08171	-5.77%	0.06117	-29.45%	0.4062	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.079694	-4.51%	0.061435	-26.39%	0.2958	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.075017	-9.36%	0.06046	-26.95%	0.3224	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.074729	-11.94%	0.06137	-27.68%	0.3514	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.074403	-12.42%	0.06115	-28.02%	0.3620	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.074369	-12.14%	0.06201	-26.75%	0.3481	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.074632	-11.64%	0.06086	-27.94%	0.3887	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.