SWM
Swarm · · gru_s1
- token id
- #257
- symbol
- SWM
- variant
- –
- chain
- address
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-08-19
- predictions
- 168
Track record at +7d
assessed
49
of 56 predictions shown
direction hit
55.1%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.2593
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0383
actual +0.0251
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.090935 | 0.088074 | -3.15% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.090825 | 0.087996 | -3.11% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.091445 | 0.088627 | -3.08% | – | pending | – | – | -1.56 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.09194 | 0.089131 | -3.06% | – | pending | – | – | -1.57 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.093595 | 0.090647 | -3.15% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.09361 | 0.090721 | -3.09% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.09504 | 0.091998 | -3.20% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.08869 | 0.086149 | -2.87% | 0.090935 | +2.53% | 0.0932 | ✗ | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.089875 | 0.087287 | -2.88% | 0.090825 | +1.06% | 0.0859 | ✗ | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.10361 | 0.099744 | -3.73% | 0.091445 | -11.74% | 0.0902 | ✓ | -1.69 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.100975 | 0.09739 | -3.55% | 0.09194 | -8.95% | 0.0556 | ✓ | -1.72 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.10023 | 0.096613 | -3.61% | 0.093595 | -6.62% | 0.0670 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.100065 | 0.09645 | -3.61% | 0.09361 | -6.45% | 0.0625 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.09889 | 0.095487 | -3.44% | 0.09504 | -3.89% | 0.0270 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.099015 | 0.095687 | -3.36% | 0.08869 | -10.43% | 0.0667 | ✓ | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.096365 | 0.093209 | -3.27% | 0.089875 | -6.73% | 0.0729 | ✓ | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.098365 | 0.094901 | -3.52% | 0.10361 | +5.33% | 0.0348 | ✓ | -1.83 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.084465 | 0.082592 | -2.22% | 0.100975 | +19.55% | 0.1156 | ✗ | -1.78 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.092855 | 0.089975 | -3.10% | 0.10023 | +7.94% | 0.0467 | ✗ | -1.84 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.090795 | 0.0883 | -2.75% | 0.100065 | +10.21% | 0.0837 | ✗ | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.09368 | 0.090871 | -3.00% | 0.09889 | +5.56% | 0.0401 | ✗ | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.095145 | 0.092243 | -3.05% | 0.099015 | +4.07% | 0.0011 | ✓ | -1.90 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.10818 | 0.104288 | -3.60% | 0.096365 | -10.92% | 0.0853 | ✓ | -1.86 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.12674 | 0.121283 | -4.31% | 0.098365 | -22.39% | 0.1669 | ✓ | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.123535 | 0.118296 | -4.24% | 0.084465 | -31.63% | 0.2857 | ✓ | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.15819 | 0.149534 | -5.47% | 0.092855 | -41.30% | 0.4265 | ✓ | -2.09 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.127905 | 0.122084 | -4.55% | 0.090795 | -29.01% | 0.2882 | ✓ | -2.04 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.10542 | 0.101334 | -3.88% | 0.09368 | -11.14% | 0.0686 | ✓ | -2.03 |
| 2026-09-24 | oos | 0.10401 | 0.100062 | -3.80% | 0.095145 | -8.52% | 0.0393 | ✓ | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-23 | oos | 0.10388 | 0.099953 | -3.78% | 0.10818 | +4.14% | 0.0593 | ✗ | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-22 | oos | 0.094815 | 0.091629 | -3.36% | 0.12674 | +33.67% | 0.2658 | ✗ | -1.94 |
| 2026-09-21 | oos | 0.10284 | 0.099415 | -3.33% | 0.123535 | +20.12% | 0.1440 | ✗ | -1.98 |
| 2026-09-20 | oos | 0.11312 | 0.108636 | -3.96% | 0.15819 | +39.84% | 0.4609 | ✗ | -2.13 |
| 2026-09-19 | oos | 0.11891 | 0.114017 | -4.12% | 0.127905 | +7.56% | 0.1975 | ✗ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-18 | oos | 0.1196 | 0.114647 | -4.14% | 0.10542 | -11.86% | 0.0001 | ✓ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-17 | oos | 0.12931 | 0.123398 | -4.57% | 0.10401 | -19.57% | 0.2710 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | oos | 0.14044 | 0.133484 | -4.95% | 0.10388 | -26.03% | 0.3534 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | oos | 0.129815 | 0.123726 | -4.69% | 0.094815 | -26.96% | 0.3975 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | oos | 0.15573 | 0.147451 | -5.32% | 0.10284 | -33.96% | 0.4626 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | oos | 0.156615 | 0.148004 | -5.50% | 0.11312 | -27.77% | 0.3240 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | oos | 0.18555 | 0.173861 | -6.30% | 0.11891 | -35.91% | 0.4300 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | oos | 0.196105 | 0.18277 | -6.80% | 0.1196 | -39.01% | 0.4705 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | oos | 0.18591 | 0.172635 | -7.14% | 0.12931 | -30.44% | 0.2865 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | oos | 0.1367 | 0.128952 | -5.67% | 0.14044 | +2.74% | 0.1130 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | oos | 0.13717 | 0.129167 | -5.83% | 0.129815 | -5.36% | 0.0422 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | oos | 0.117485 | 0.111141 | -5.40% | 0.15573 | +32.55% | 0.3490 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | oos | 0.102915 | 0.098183 | -4.60% | 0.156615 | +52.18% | 0.5120 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | oos | 0.07698 | 0.074725 | -2.93% | 0.18555 | +141.04% | 0.9422 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | oos | 0.07564 | 0.073671 | -2.60% | 0.196105 | +159.26% | 1.0105 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | oos | 0.07329 | 0.071776 | -2.07% | 0.18591 | +153.66% | 1.0116 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | oos | 0.07012 | 0.069121 | -1.42% | 0.1367 | +94.95% | 0.6694 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | oos | 0.06978 | 0.06891 | -1.25% | 0.13717 | +96.57% | 0.6749 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | oos | 0.06946 | 0.068698 | -1.10% | 0.117485 | +69.14% | 0.5299 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-30 | oos | 0.07144 | 0.070433 | -1.41% | 0.102915 | +44.06% | 0.3454 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | oos | 0.07166 | 0.070571 | -1.52% | 0.07698 | +7.42% | 0.0667 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | oos | 0.07463 | 0.073057 | -2.11% | 0.07564 | +1.35% | 0.0114 | ✓ | 1.00 |