SWM
Swarm · · gru_s1
- token id
- #257
- symbol
- SWM
- variant
- –
- chain
- address
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-08-19
- predictions
- 168
Track record at +30d
assessed
26
of 56 predictions shown
direction hit
65.4%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.2914
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.1183
actual -0.1438
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.090935 | 0.083221 | -8.48% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.090825 | 0.083274 | -8.31% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.091445 | 0.08384 | -8.32% | – | pending | – | – | -1.56 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.09194 | 0.084332 | -8.27% | – | pending | – | – | -1.57 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.093595 | 0.085632 | -8.51% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.09361 | 0.08573 | -8.42% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.09504 | 0.086702 | -8.77% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.08869 | 0.081429 | -8.19% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.089875 | 0.082366 | -8.36% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.10361 | 0.093199 | -10.05% | – | pending | – | – | -1.69 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.100975 | 0.091032 | -9.85% | – | pending | – | – | -1.72 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.10023 | 0.090233 | -9.97% | – | pending | – | – | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.100065 | 0.089973 | -10.09% | – | pending | – | – | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.09889 | 0.089046 | -9.95% | – | pending | – | – | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.099015 | 0.089131 | -9.98% | – | pending | – | – | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.096365 | 0.08687 | -9.85% | – | pending | – | – | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.098365 | 0.088464 | -10.07% | – | pending | – | – | -1.83 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.084465 | 0.077418 | -8.34% | – | pending | – | – | -1.78 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.092855 | 0.084123 | -9.40% | – | pending | – | – | -1.84 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.090795 | 0.082426 | -9.22% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.09368 | 0.084728 | -9.56% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.095145 | 0.086051 | -9.56% | – | pending | – | – | -1.90 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.10818 | 0.096909 | -10.42% | – | pending | – | – | -1.86 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.12674 | 0.111947 | -11.67% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.123535 | 0.109222 | -11.59% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.15819 | 0.136419 | -13.76% | – | pending | – | – | -2.09 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.127905 | 0.11259 | -11.97% | – | pending | – | – | -2.04 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.10542 | 0.094096 | -10.74% | – | pending | – | – | -2.03 |
| 2026-09-24 | oos | 0.10401 | 0.093053 | -10.53% | – | pending | – | – | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-23 | oos | 0.10388 | 0.093036 | -10.44% | – | pending | – | – | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-22 | oos | 0.094815 | 0.085855 | -9.45% | 0.090935 | -4.09% | 0.0124 | ✓ | -1.94 |
| 2026-09-21 | oos | 0.10284 | 0.093389 | -9.19% | 0.090825 | -11.68% | 0.0876 | ✓ | -1.98 |
| 2026-09-20 | oos | 0.11312 | 0.100818 | -10.87% | 0.091445 | -19.16% | 0.0513 | ✓ | -2.13 |
| 2026-09-19 | oos | 0.11891 | 0.105652 | -11.15% | 0.09194 | -22.68% | 0.1231 | ✓ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-18 | oos | 0.1196 | 0.106141 | -11.25% | 0.093595 | -21.74% | 0.0960 | ✓ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-17 | oos | 0.12931 | 0.113155 | -12.49% | 0.09361 | -27.61% | 0.2535 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | oos | 0.14044 | 0.121802 | -13.27% | 0.09504 | -32.33% | 0.3161 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | oos | 0.129815 | 0.113111 | -12.87% | 0.08869 | -31.68% | 0.3262 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | oos | 0.15573 | 0.133991 | -13.96% | 0.089875 | -42.29% | 0.4418 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | oos | 0.156615 | 0.133901 | -14.50% | 0.10361 | -33.84% | 0.3353 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | oos | 0.18555 | 0.155729 | -16.07% | 0.100975 | -45.58% | 0.4896 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | oos | 0.196105 | 0.162755 | -17.01% | 0.10023 | -48.89% | 0.5652 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | oos | 0.18591 | 0.153384 | -17.50% | 0.100065 | -46.18% | 0.5071 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | oos | 0.1367 | 0.116785 | -14.57% | 0.09889 | -27.66% | 0.2193 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | oos | 0.13717 | 0.116796 | -14.85% | 0.099015 | -27.82% | 0.2057 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | oos | 0.117485 | 0.101358 | -13.73% | 0.096365 | -17.98% | 0.1021 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | oos | 0.102915 | 0.090578 | -11.99% | 0.098365 | -4.42% | 0.0197 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | oos | 0.07698 | 0.069908 | -9.19% | 0.084465 | +9.72% | 0.1177 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | oos | 0.07564 | 0.069203 | -8.51% | 0.092855 | +22.76% | 0.2117 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | oos | 0.07329 | 0.067933 | -7.31% | 0.090795 | +23.88% | 0.2482 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | oos | 0.07012 | 0.06509 | -7.17% | 0.09368 | +33.60% | 0.2751 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | oos | 0.06978 | 0.065128 | -6.67% | 0.095145 | +36.35% | 0.2872 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | oos | 0.06946 | 0.065277 | -6.02% | 0.10818 | +55.74% | 0.4435 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-30 | oos | 0.07144 | 0.066915 | -6.33% | 0.12674 | +77.41% | 0.5646 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | oos | 0.07166 | 0.067357 | -6.00% | 0.123535 | +72.39% | 0.5419 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | oos | 0.07463 | 0.069968 | -6.25% | 0.15819 | +111.97% | 0.7341 | ✗ | 1.00 |