SWM

Swarm · · gru_s1

token id: #257
symbol: SWM
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 168

Track record at +1d

assessed

55

of 56 predictions shown

direction hit

45.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0732

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0083

actual +0.0044

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.090935	0.090324	-0.67%	–	pending	–	–	-1.55
2026-10-21	oos	0.090825	0.090242	-0.64%	0.090935	+0.12%	0.0112	✗	-1.55
2026-10-20	oos	0.091445	0.090872	-0.63%	0.090825	-0.68%	0.0198	✗	-1.56
2026-10-19	oos	0.09194	0.091363	-0.63%	0.091445	-0.54%	0.0219	✗	-1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.093595	0.092978	-0.66%	0.09194	-1.77%	0.0145	✓	-1.58
2026-10-17	oos	0.09361	0.093008	-0.64%	0.093595	-0.02%	0.0184	✗	-1.58
2026-10-16	oos	0.09504	0.094406	-0.67%	0.09361	-1.50%	0.0108	✓	-1.58
2026-10-15	oos	0.08869	0.088209	-0.54%	0.09504	+7.16%	0.0627	✗	-1.55
2026-10-14	oos	0.089875	0.089396	-0.53%	0.08869	-1.32%	0.0027	✓	-1.55
2026-10-13	oos	0.10361	0.102762	-0.82%	0.089875	-13.26%	0.1655	✓	-1.69
2026-10-12	oos	0.100975	0.100213	-0.75%	0.10361	+2.61%	0.0617	✗	-1.72
2026-10-11	oos	0.10023	0.099458	-0.77%	0.100975	+0.74%	0.0257	✓	-1.75
2026-10-10	oos	0.100065	0.099279	-0.79%	0.10023	+0.16%	0.0257	✗	-1.75
2026-10-09	oos	0.09889	0.098176	-0.72%	0.100065	+1.19%	0.0268	✗	-1.75
2026-10-08	oos	0.099015	0.098317	-0.71%	0.09889	-0.13%	0.0241	✗	-1.76
2026-10-07	oos	0.096365	0.095707	-0.68%	0.099015	+2.75%	0.0003	✓	-1.76
2026-10-06	oos	0.098365	0.0976	-0.78%	0.096365	-2.03%	0.0619	✓	-1.83
2026-10-05	oos	0.084465	0.084154	-0.37%	0.098365	+16.46%	0.1517	✗	-1.78
2026-10-04	oos	0.092855	0.092284	-0.61%	0.084465	-9.04%	0.1047	✓	-1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.090795	0.090356	-0.48%	0.092855	+2.27%	0.0663	✗	-1.89
2026-10-02	oos	0.09368	0.093172	-0.54%	0.090795	-3.08%	0.0205	✓	-1.89
2026-10-01	oos	0.095145	0.094653	-0.52%	0.09368	-1.54%	0.0180	✓	-1.90
2026-09-30	oos	0.10818	0.107461	-0.66%	0.095145	-12.05%	0.0932	✓	-1.86
2026-09-29	oos	0.12674	0.125573	-0.92%	0.10818	-14.64%	0.1510	✓	-1.89
2026-09-28	oos	0.123535	0.122438	-0.89%	0.12674	+2.59%	0.0386	✗	-1.89
2026-09-27	oos	0.15819	0.155843	-1.48%	0.123535	-21.91%	0.2573	✓	-2.09
2026-09-26	oos	0.127905	0.126499	-1.10%	0.15819	+23.68%	0.2247	✗	-2.04
2026-09-25	oos	0.10542	0.10455	-0.83%	0.127905	+21.33%	0.2094	✗	-2.03
2026-09-24	oos	0.10401	0.103186	-0.79%	0.10542	+1.36%	0.0144	✗	-2.02
2026-09-23	oos	0.10388	0.103069	-0.78%	0.10401	+0.13%	0.0093	✗	-2.02
2026-09-22	oos	0.094815	0.094236	-0.61%	0.10388	+9.56%	0.0560	✗	-1.94
2026-09-21	oos	0.10284	0.102199	-0.62%	0.094815	-7.80%	0.0841	✓	-1.98
2026-09-20	oos	0.11312	0.11227	-0.75%	0.10284	-9.09%	0.0506	✗	-2.13
2026-09-19	oos	0.11891	0.117955	-0.80%	0.11312	-4.87%	0.0438	✓	-2.15
2026-09-18	oos	0.1196	0.118663	-0.78%	0.11891	-0.58%	0.0116	✗	-2.15
2026-09-17	oos	0.12931	0.128181	-0.87%	0.1196	-7.51%	0.1269	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.14044	0.139008	-1.02%	0.12931	-7.93%	0.0750	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.129815	0.128688	-0.87%	0.14044	+8.18%	0.0800	✗	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.15573	0.153945	-1.15%	0.129815	-16.64%	0.1368	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.156615	0.154784	-1.17%	0.15573	-0.57%	0.0117	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.18555	0.182706	-1.53%	0.156615	-15.59%	0.1481	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.196105	0.192586	-1.79%	0.18555	-5.38%	0.0379	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.18591	0.182109	-2.04%	0.196105	+5.48%	0.0653	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.1367	0.134749	-1.43%	0.18591	+36.00%	0.3444	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.13717	0.135044	-1.55%	0.1367	-0.34%	0.0143	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.117485	0.115728	-1.50%	0.13717	+16.76%	0.1781	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.102915	0.101618	-1.26%	0.117485	+14.16%	0.1607	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.07698	0.076455	-0.68%	0.102915	+33.69%	0.2909	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07564	0.075163	-0.63%	0.07698	+1.77%	0.0219	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07329	0.072915	-0.51%	0.07564	+3.21%	0.0564	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07012	0.069909	-0.30%	0.07329	+4.52%	0.0027	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.06978	0.069567	-0.30%	0.07012	+0.49%	0.0091	✗	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.06946	0.069241	-0.31%	0.06978	+0.46%	0.0227	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07144	0.07113	-0.43%	0.06946	-2.77%	0.0352	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07166	0.071286	-0.52%	0.07144	-0.31%	0.0095	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07463	0.07401	-0.83%	0.07166	-3.98%	0.0373	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.