NIULAI

? · · gru_s1

token id: #227
symbol: NIULAI
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 165

Track record at +7d

assessed

48

of 55 predictions shown

direction hit

68.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1779

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0490

actual -0.0428

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.06254	0.060382	-3.45%	–	pending	–	–	1.55
2026-10-20	oos	0.0625	0.060117	-3.81%	–	pending	–	–	1.55
2026-10-19	oos	0.05795	0.05637	-2.73%	–	pending	–	–	1.53
2026-10-18	oos	0.058765	0.057243	-2.59%	–	pending	–	–	1.53
2026-10-17	oos	0.059455	0.0582	-2.11%	–	pending	–	–	1.53
2026-10-16	oos	0.065015	0.063267	-2.69%	–	pending	–	–	1.52
2026-10-15	oos	0.06738	0.065385	-2.96%	–	pending	–	–	1.51
2026-10-14	oos	0.06963	0.067581	-2.94%	0.06254	-10.18%	0.0984	✓	1.51
2026-10-13	oos	0.07463	0.071832	-3.75%	0.0625	-16.25%	0.1362	✓	1.48
2026-10-12	oos	0.07206	0.070005	-2.85%	0.05795	-19.58%	0.1907	✓	1.47
2026-10-11	oos	0.07927	0.076198	-3.88%	0.058765	-25.87%	0.2315	✓	1.40
2026-10-10	oos	0.080075	0.077047	-3.78%	0.059455	-25.75%	0.2330	✓	1.41
2026-10-09	oos	0.07419	0.072195	-2.69%	0.065015	-12.37%	0.0869	✓	1.41
2026-10-08	oos	0.0731	0.071469	-2.23%	0.06738	-7.82%	0.0663	✓	1.41
2026-10-07	oos	0.071685	0.07017	-2.11%	0.06963	-2.87%	0.0222	✗	1.44
2026-10-06	oos	0.079075	0.076403	-3.38%	0.07463	-5.62%	0.0157	✓	1.36
2026-10-05	oos	0.0768	0.074506	-2.99%	0.07206	-6.17%	0.0319	✗	1.36
2026-10-04	oos	0.08235	0.07938	-3.61%	0.07927	-3.74%	0.0427	✗	1.32
2026-10-03	oos	0.08011	0.077771	-2.92%	0.080075	-0.04%	0.0583	✗	1.33
2026-10-02	oos	0.08755	0.084565	-3.41%	0.07419	-15.26%	0.0998	✓	1.32
2026-10-01	oos	0.09927	0.095242	-4.06%	0.0731	-26.36%	0.2163	✓	1.27
2026-09-30	oos	0.104825	0.100401	-4.22%	0.071685	-31.61%	0.3325	✓	1.32
2026-09-29	oos	0.10513	0.100668	-4.24%	0.079075	-24.78%	0.2709	✓	1.31
2026-09-28	oos	0.115845	0.110311	-4.78%	0.0768	-33.70%	0.3973	✓	1.30
2026-09-27	oos	0.10403	0.099558	-4.30%	0.08235	-20.84%	0.2227	✓	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.10584	0.101184	-4.40%	0.08011	-24.31%	0.2388	✓	1.37
2026-09-25	oos	0.104305	0.099721	-4.40%	0.08755	-16.06%	0.1368	✓	1.37
2026-09-24	oos	0.10064	0.096298	-4.31%	0.09927	-1.36%	0.0229	✓	1.38
2026-09-23	oos	0.10741	0.102481	-4.59%	0.104825	-2.41%	0.0359	✓	1.36
2026-09-22	oos	0.112325	0.106923	-4.81%	0.10513	-6.41%	0.0226	✓	1.31
2026-09-21	oos	0.10777	0.102546	-4.85%	0.115845	+7.49%	0.1708	✗	1.32
2026-09-20	oos	0.10109	0.09624	-4.80%	0.10403	+2.91%	0.0193	✓	1.47
2026-09-19	oos	0.107915	0.102401	-5.11%	0.10584	-1.92%	0.0222	✓	1.44
2026-09-18	oos	0.11962	0.112916	-5.60%	0.104305	-12.80%	0.1352	✓	1.43
2026-09-17	oos	0.10627	0.100554	-5.38%	0.10064	-5.30%	0.0992	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.10055	0.095227	-5.29%	0.10741	+6.82%	0.0177	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.11971	0.11252	-6.01%	0.112325	-6.17%	0.1331	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.12225	0.114664	-6.21%	0.10777	-11.84%	0.1643	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.11709	0.109854	-6.18%	0.10109	-13.66%	0.1384	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.134925	0.125421	-7.04%	0.107915	-20.02%	0.2004	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.125765	0.116762	-7.16%	0.11962	-4.89%	0.0222	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.12138	0.111255	-8.34%	0.10627	-12.45%	0.0434	✓	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.078585	0.074751	-4.88%	0.10055	+27.95%	0.3242	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.102125	0.095563	-6.43%	0.11971	+17.22%	0.2625	✗	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.08165	0.07753	-5.05%	0.12225	+49.72%	0.4671	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.09102	0.085899	-5.63%	0.11709	+28.64%	0.3548	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.12056	0.110934	-7.98%	0.134925	+11.92%	0.2285	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.08412	0.079884	-5.04%	0.125765	+49.51%	0.4853	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.09631	0.090512	-6.02%	0.12138	+26.03%	0.3534	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07782	0.074257	-4.58%	0.078585	+0.98%	0.0441	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.08336	0.079259	-4.92%	0.102125	+22.51%	0.2400	✗	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.10287	0.09578	-6.89%	0.08165	-20.63%	0.1663	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.10148	0.09145	-9.88%	0.09102	-10.31%	0.0386	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.05494	0.053745	-2.17%	0.12056	+119.44%	0.7877	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.05606	0.054568	-2.66%	0.08412	+50.05%	0.4095	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.