MICRODUCK

microduck · Robinhood · gru_s1

token id: #784
symbol: MICRODUCK
variant: –
chain: Robinhood
address: 0xd5f1afea47b1a9eab414d2ee740cf1d6d039e725
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-29
predictions: 138

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

of 46 predictions shown

direction hit

53.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.3488

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0031

actual -0.2757

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.003037	0.002782	-8.37%	–	pending	–	–	1.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.002985	0.002712	-9.18%	–	pending	–	–	1.20
2026-10-20	oos	0.0018	0.001717	-4.60%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-19	oos	0.001942	0.001847	-4.92%	–	pending	–	–	0.88
2026-10-18	oos	0.001786	0.001713	-4.07%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-17	oos	0.002094	0.001986	-5.15%	–	pending	–	–	0.95
2026-10-16	oos	0.002361	0.002219	-6.04%	–	pending	–	–	0.94
2026-10-15	oos	0.002423	0.002268	-6.39%	0.003037	+25.32%	0.2678	✗	0.95
2026-10-14	oos	0.002253	0.002135	-5.22%	0.002985	+32.51%	0.3081	✗	0.91
2026-10-13	oos	0.002043	0.001963	-3.89%	0.0018	-11.92%	0.0850	✓	1.10
2026-10-12	oos	0.002155	0.002075	-3.71%	0.001942	-9.86%	0.0673	✓	1.12
2026-10-11	oos	0.001829	0.001803	-1.43%	0.001786	-2.38%	0.0205	✗	1.50
2026-10-10	oos	0.001829	0.001819	-0.53%	0.002094	+14.49%	0.1681	✗	1.47
2026-10-09	oos	0.001849	0.001851	+0.14%	0.002361	+27.75%	0.2622	✓	1.47
2026-10-08	oos	0.002105	0.002091	-0.69%	0.002423	+15.11%	0.1396	✗	1.52
2026-10-07	oos	0.002412	0.002353	-2.43%	0.002253	-6.59%	0.0136	✓	1.45
2026-10-06	oos	0.00238	0.002325	-2.31%	0.002043	-14.16%	0.0813	✓	1.66
2026-10-05	oos	0.002877	0.002737	-4.86%	0.002155	-25.11%	0.1620	✓	1.62
2026-10-04	oos	0.002327	0.00231	-0.71%	0.001829	-21.36%	0.1719	✓	1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.001718	0.001807	+5.18%	0.001829	+6.46%	0.0431	✓	1.42
2026-10-02	oos	0.001685	0.001792	+6.36%	0.001849	+9.74%	0.0645	✓	1.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.001688	0.001807	+7.06%	0.002105	+24.70%	0.2074	✓	1.45
2026-09-30	oos	0.00239	0.002526	+5.70%	0.002412	+0.92%	0.0404	✓	1.73
2026-09-29	oos	0.003095	0.003167	+2.35%	0.00238	-23.09%	0.3238	✗	1.69
2026-09-28	oos	0.003635	0.003638	+0.06%	0.002877	-20.86%	0.2803	✗	1.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.00367	0.003672	+0.05%	0.002327	-36.61%	0.4803	✗	1.00
2026-09-26	oos	0.004564	0.00442	-3.15%	0.001718	-62.36%	0.9489	✓	1.00
2026-09-25	oos	0.004941	0.004748	-3.91%	0.001685	-65.91%	1.0412	✓	1.00
2026-09-24	oos	0.004495	0.004402	-2.07%	0.001688	-62.45%	0.9640	✓	1.00
2026-09-23	oos	0.004587	0.004497	-1.96%	0.00239	-47.90%	0.6224	✓	1.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.004842	0.004694	-3.05%	0.003095	-36.09%	0.3866	✓	1.00
2026-09-21	oos	0.005348	0.005127	-4.14%	0.003635	-32.02%	0.3068	✓	1.00
2026-09-20	oos	0.004465	0.004515	+1.12%	0.00367	-17.81%	0.2471	✗	1.00
2026-09-19	oos	0.004269	0.004369	+2.35%	0.004564	+6.91%	0.0052	✓	1.00
2026-09-18	oos	0.005603	0.005626	+0.42%	0.004941	-11.81%	0.1688	✗	1.00
2026-09-17	oos	0.005509	0.005688	+3.24%	0.004495	-18.41%	0.3354	✗	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004543	+4.57%	0.004587	+5.59%	0.0930	✗	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.005922	0.006214	+4.93%	0.004842	-18.24%	0.3809	✗	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.008547	0.008723	+2.06%	0.005348	-37.43%	0.5915	✗	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.006287	0.006525	+3.80%	0.004465	-28.97%	0.4347	✗	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.008404	0.008731	+3.89%	0.004269	-49.20%	0.7656	✗	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.006361	0.005801	-8.82%	0.005603	-11.92%	0.0811	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.008453	0.008318	-1.60%	0.005509	-34.83%	0.4096	✓	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.010485	0.010149	-3.21%	0.004344	-58.57%	0.8208	✓	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.017855	0.017955	+0.56%	0.005922	-66.83%	1.0720	✗	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.018005	0.018126	+0.67%	0.008547	-52.53%	0.7401	✗	1.00