MICRODUCK

microduck · Robinhood · gru_s1

token id: #784
symbol: MICRODUCK
variant: –
chain: Robinhood
address: 0xd5f1afea47b1a9eab414d2ee740cf1d6d039e725
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-29
predictions: 135

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

of 45 predictions shown

direction hit

65.9%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1479

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0070

actual -0.0513

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001936	0.001908	-1.42%	–	pending	–	–	0.82
2026-10-20	oos	0.0018	0.001777	-1.24%	0.001936	+7.59%	0.0880	✗	0.84
2026-10-19	oos	0.001942	0.001914	-1.42%	0.0018	-7.34%	0.0736	✓	0.88
2026-10-18	oos	0.001786	0.00177	-0.91%	0.001942	+8.73%	0.0947	✗	0.90
2026-10-17	oos	0.002094	0.002067	-1.28%	0.001786	-14.71%	0.1535	✓	0.95
2026-10-16	oos	0.002361	0.002322	-1.68%	0.002094	-11.33%	0.1020	✓	0.94
2026-10-15	oos	0.002423	0.002373	-2.05%	0.002361	-2.54%	0.0022	✓	0.95
2026-10-14	oos	0.002253	0.002215	-1.68%	0.002423	+7.55%	0.0835	✗	0.91
2026-10-13	oos	0.002043	0.00202	-1.14%	0.002253	+10.28%	0.1299	✗	1.10
2026-10-12	oos	0.002155	0.002127	-1.28%	0.002043	-5.18%	0.0587	✓	1.12
2026-10-11	oos	0.001829	0.001818	-0.63%	0.002155	+17.76%	0.2048	✗	1.50
2026-10-10	oos	0.001829	0.001821	-0.42%	0.001829	+0.03%	0.0091	✓	1.47
2026-10-09	oos	0.001849	0.001844	-0.26%	0.001829	-1.05%	0.0145	✓	1.47
2026-10-08	oos	0.002105	0.002096	-0.42%	0.001849	-12.19%	0.1415	✓	1.52
2026-10-07	oos	0.002412	0.00239	-0.92%	0.002105	-12.73%	0.0991	✓	1.45
2026-10-06	oos	0.00238	0.002359	-0.87%	0.002412	+1.34%	0.0667	✗	1.66
2026-10-05	oos	0.002877	0.002821	-1.95%	0.00238	-17.27%	0.1660	✓	1.62
2026-10-04	oos	0.002327	0.002303	-1.01%	0.002877	+23.66%	0.2388	✗	1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.001718	0.001722	+0.24%	0.002327	+35.42%	0.2716	✓	1.42
2026-10-02	oos	0.001685	0.001692	+0.43%	0.001718	+1.99%	0.0114	✓	1.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.001688	0.001698	+0.57%	0.001685	-0.21%	0.0018	✓	1.45
2026-09-30	oos	0.00239	0.002397	+0.28%	0.001688	-29.37%	0.3772	✗	1.73
2026-09-29	oos	0.003095	0.003088	-0.20%	0.00239	-22.77%	0.2547	✓	1.69
2026-09-28	oos	0.003635	0.003614	-0.60%	0.003095	-14.88%	0.1587	✓	1.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.00367	0.003651	-0.52%	0.003635	-0.94%	0.0077	✗	1.00
2026-09-26	oos	0.004564	0.004512	-1.14%	0.00367	-19.59%	0.2071	✓	1.00
2026-09-25	oos	0.004941	0.00487	-1.44%	0.004564	-7.64%	0.0688	✓	1.00
2026-09-24	oos	0.004495	0.004451	-0.97%	0.004941	+9.93%	0.1079	✗	1.00
2026-09-23	oos	0.004587	0.004544	-0.95%	0.004495	-2.01%	0.0108	✓	1.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.004842	0.004783	-1.23%	0.004587	-5.27%	0.0204	✓	1.00
2026-09-21	oos	0.005348	0.005257	-1.70%	0.004842	-9.46%	0.0776	✓	1.00
2026-09-20	oos	0.004465	0.004448	-0.38%	0.005348	+19.78%	0.1194	✗	1.00
2026-09-19	oos	0.004269	0.004264	-0.11%	0.004465	+4.59%	0.0469	✗	1.00
2026-09-18	oos	0.005603	0.005568	-0.63%	0.004269	-23.81%	0.2700	✓	1.00
2026-09-17	oos	0.005509	0.005495	-0.26%	0.005603	+1.71%	0.0380	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004356	+0.27%	0.005509	+26.82%	0.2323	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.005922	0.005925	+0.05%	0.004344	-26.65%	0.3178	✗	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.008547	0.00847	-0.90%	0.005922	-30.71%	0.3241	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.006287	0.006286	-0.01%	0.008547	+35.96%	0.2895	✗	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.008404	0.008357	-0.56%	0.006287	-25.20%	0.2787	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.006361	0.006354	-0.11%	0.008404	+32.11%	0.2789	✗	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.008453	0.008434	-0.23%	0.006361	-24.74%	0.2907	✓	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.010485	0.010444	-0.39%	0.008453	-19.38%	0.1889	✓	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.017855	0.017771	-0.47%	0.010485	-41.28%	0.5255	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.018005	0.017942	-0.35%	0.017855	-0.83%	0.0033	✓	1.00