XEF

Xeffy · native · gru_s0

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 360

Track record at +7d

assessed

113

of 120 predictions shown

direction hit

49.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1962

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0368

actual -0.0467

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.004362	0.004276	-1.95%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.004258	-1.88%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.004277	-2.02%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.004213	-2.02%	–	pending	–	–	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.004422	-2.19%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.004443	-2.24%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.00448	-2.21%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.004234	-2.43%	0.004362	+0.52%	0.0340	✗	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.004078	-2.11%	0.00434	+4.19%	0.0618	✗	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.004012	-2.63%	0.004365	+5.95%	0.0847	✗	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.003927	-2.13%	0.0043	+7.15%	0.0895	✗	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.003945	-2.44%	0.004521	+11.81%	0.1362	✗	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.003944	-2.63%	0.004544	+12.18%	0.1414	✗	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.003797	-3.10%	0.004581	+16.92%	0.1880	✗	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.004048	-2.29%	0.004339	+4.75%	0.0673	✗	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.004058	-1.51%	0.004166	+1.11%	0.0261	✗	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.004019	-1.45%	0.00412	+1.05%	0.0234	✗	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.004385	-1.06%	0.004012	-9.48%	0.0932	✓	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.003737	-2.09%	0.004044	+5.94%	0.0744	✗	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.004917	-1.42%	0.004051	-18.79%	0.1984	✓	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.00495	-1.33%	0.003918	-21.90%	0.2402	✓	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.004922	-1.82%	0.004142	-17.37%	0.1742	✓	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.004183	-1.98%	0.00412	-3.46%	0.0027	✓	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.004458	-1.83%	0.004078	-10.21%	0.0749	✓	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.004389	-1.46%	0.004432	-0.50%	0.0194	✗	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.004555	-1.34%	0.003817	-17.32%	0.1752	✓	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.004665	-1.33%	0.004988	+5.50%	0.0690	✗	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.005048	-1.32%	0.005017	-1.93%	0.0038	✓	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.00438	-1.26%	0.005013	+13.01%	0.1310	✗	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.004321	-0.75%	0.004268	-1.98%	0.0223	✓	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.00431	-0.60%	0.004541	+4.73%	0.0423	✗	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.004285	-1.99%	0.004455	+1.88%	0.0531	✗	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.004489	-1.62%	0.004617	+1.17%	0.0422	✗	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.00472	-1.54%	0.004728	-1.38%	0.0146	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.00528	-3.10%	0.005116	-6.12%	0.0135	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004313	-0.72%	0.004436	+2.11%	0.0466	✗	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.003849	+0.30%	0.004354	+13.47%	0.1793	✓	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.003891	+0.44%	0.004336	+11.93%	0.1393	✓	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003679	+0.93%	0.004372	+19.94%	0.1859	✓	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.003112	+1.85%	0.004563	+49.34%	0.3925	✓	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.003916	+0.81%	0.004794	+23.43%	0.2118	✓	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.003998	+0.75%	0.005449	+37.31%	0.3091	✓	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.004046	+0.91%	0.004344	+8.34%	0.0655	✓	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.004902	+0.02%	0.003837	-21.71%	0.2533	✗	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.004841	+0.13%	0.003874	-19.87%	0.2253	✗	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.004735	+0.37%	0.003645	-22.73%	0.2704	✗	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.00456	+0.67%	0.003056	-32.54%	0.4070	✗	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.004775	+0.67%	0.003884	-18.12%	0.2130	✗	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.005101	+0.69%	0.003968	-21.67%	0.2658	✗	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.005025	+0.19%	0.00401	-20.06%	0.2220	✗	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.00501	+0.34%	0.004901	-1.83%	0.0179	✗	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.004696	+0.57%	0.004835	+3.54%	0.0309	✓	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.005065	+0.37%	0.004718	-6.51%	0.0630	✗	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005127	+0.45%	0.004529	-11.27%	0.1192	✗	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.005221	+0.43%	0.004744	-8.76%	0.0904	✗	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.005428	+0.81%	0.005066	-5.91%	0.0657	✗	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.005449	+0.57%	0.005016	-7.41%	0.0888	✗	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.005258	+0.52%	0.004993	-4.55%	0.0559	✗	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.005307	+0.58%	0.004669	-11.50%	0.1295	✗	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.005193	+0.32%	0.005046	-2.52%	0.0290	✗	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.005092	+0.10%	0.005104	+0.35%	0.0072	✓	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.004938	+0.24%	0.005199	+5.53%	0.0497	✓	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.005729	-0.87%	0.005385	-6.84%	0.0734	✓	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.00564	-1.88%	0.005417	-5.76%	0.0507	✓	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.005654	-2.84%	0.005231	-10.11%	0.0953	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.005719	-2.90%	0.005276	-10.42%	0.0988	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.005807	-3.06%	0.005177	-13.58%	0.1354	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.005811	-3.03%	0.005087	-15.11%	0.1530	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.005738	-3.01%	0.004926	-16.73%	0.1734	✓	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.005749	-3.03%	0.00578	-2.51%	0.0091	✓	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.005896	-2.84%	0.005749	-5.27%	0.0345	✓	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.006306	-2.60%	0.00582	-10.11%	0.0821	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.006623	-2.57%	0.00589	-13.35%	0.1180	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.006599	-2.70%	0.00599	-11.68%	0.0935	✓	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.00627	-2.86%	0.005993	-7.16%	0.0421	✓	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.006744	-2.85%	0.005916	-14.78%	0.1276	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.00687	-2.91%	0.005929	-16.21%	0.1458	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.007084	-3.23%	0.006068	-17.10%	0.1527	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.006344	-3.42%	0.006474	-1.44%	0.0205	✓	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.006151	-3.63%	0.006798	+6.50%	0.1001	✗	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.005835	-3.86%	0.006782	+11.74%	0.1508	✗	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.00572	-3.97%	0.006455	+8.37%	0.1228	✗	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.005769	-4.01%	0.006942	+15.52%	0.1871	✗	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.005742	-3.96%	0.007076	+18.34%	0.2089	✗	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.0058	-3.80%	0.00732	+21.41%	0.2329	✗	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.005634	-3.76%	0.006568	+12.21%	0.1536	✗	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.005903	-3.57%	0.006383	+4.27%	0.0782	✗	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.006118	-3.45%	0.00607	-4.21%	0.0092	✓	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.00609	-3.55%	0.005956	-5.66%	0.0242	✓	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.006049	-3.64%	0.006009	-4.27%	0.0085	✓	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.005988	-3.58%	0.005979	-3.72%	0.0017	✓	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.005917	-3.50%	0.006029	-1.67%	0.0189	✓	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.006119	-3.74%	0.005854	-7.92%	0.0445	✓	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.005987	-4.21%	0.006121	-2.07%	0.0200	✓	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.00557	-3.98%	0.006336	+9.22%	0.1307	✗	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.005561	-4.13%	0.006314	+8.84%	0.1255	✗	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.005539	-4.47%	0.006277	+8.26%	0.1258	✗	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.005758	-4.69%	0.006211	+2.81%	0.0804	✗	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.005812	-4.82%	0.006132	+0.41%	0.0578	✗	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.006106	-5.34%	0.006357	-1.44%	0.0171	✓	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.005114	-6.00%	0.00625	+14.89%	0.1544	✗	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.005513	-5.96%	0.005801	-1.05%	0.0362	✓	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.005117	-6.67%	0.005801	+5.80%	0.1095	✗	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.004604	-7.92%	0.005798	+15.97%	0.2343	✗	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.005121	-8.51%	0.006041	+7.93%	0.1559	✗	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.003636	-10.91%	0.006107	+49.61%	0.4793	✗	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.003364	-12.92%	0.00645	+66.95%	0.6249	✗	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.002572	-20.62%	0.00544	+67.91%	0.7767	✗	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.002432	-24.98%	0.005863	+80.84%	0.8774	✗	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.001974	-34.20%	0.005483	+82.76%	1.0107	✗	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.001298	-46.85%	0.005	+104.73%	1.3233	✗	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.006342	-4.26%	0.005597	-15.51%	0.1522	✓	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.00694	-3.47%	0.004082	-43.22%	0.5680	✓	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.006668	-3.83%	0.003864	-44.27%	0.6245	✓	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.007683	-2.91%	0.00324	-59.06%	0.9253	✓	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.008557	-2.59%	0.003242	-63.10%	1.0375	✓	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.008768	-2.49%	0.003	-66.64%	1.1237	✓	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.008947	-2.42%	0.002442	-73.37%	1.3395	✓	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.009093	-2.37%	0.006625	-28.87%	0.3461	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.010222	-2.20%	0.007189	-31.22%	0.3352	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.