XEF

Xeffy · native · gru_s0

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 360

Track record at +30d

assessed

90

of 120 predictions shown

direction hit

60.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2572

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0929

actual -0.0978

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.004362	0.004139	-5.11%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.004129	-4.87%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.004136	-5.25%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.004073	-5.28%	–	pending	–	–	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.00427	-5.56%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.004291	-5.57%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.004337	-5.32%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.00408	-5.97%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.003946	-5.27%	–	pending	–	–	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.003852	-6.51%	–	pending	–	–	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.0038	-5.30%	–	pending	–	–	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.003801	-6.00%	–	pending	–	–	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.003792	-6.40%	–	pending	–	–	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.003618	-7.65%	–	pending	–	–	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.00391	-5.62%	–	pending	–	–	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.003967	-3.72%	–	pending	–	–	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.003933	-3.55%	–	pending	–	–	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.004338	-2.14%	–	pending	–	–	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.003618	-5.21%	–	pending	–	–	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.004824	-3.29%	–	pending	–	–	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.004871	-2.90%	–	pending	–	–	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.004826	-3.74%	–	pending	–	–	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.004064	-4.78%	–	pending	–	–	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.004352	-4.18%	–	pending	–	–	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.004307	-3.31%	–	pending	–	–	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.004477	-3.03%	–	pending	–	–	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.004591	-2.89%	–	pending	–	–	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.005017	-1.94%	–	pending	–	–	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.004321	-2.58%	–	pending	–	–	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.004304	-1.15%	–	pending	–	–	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.004305	-0.73%	0.004362	+0.58%	0.0008	✓	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.004151	-5.06%	0.00434	-0.73%	0.0524	✗	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.004375	-4.13%	0.004365	-4.34%	0.0005	✓	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.004608	-3.88%	0.0043	-10.32%	0.0647	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.005071	-6.95%	0.004521	-17.03%	0.1032	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004209	-3.11%	0.004544	+4.61%	0.0889	✗	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.003747	-2.36%	0.004581	+19.39%	0.2365	✗	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.003857	-0.44%	0.004339	+12.01%	0.1306	✗	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003633	-0.32%	0.004166	+14.28%	0.1557	✗	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.003049	-0.21%	0.00412	+34.84%	0.3120	✗	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.00388	-0.11%	0.004012	+3.30%	0.0498	✗	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.00397	+0.03%	0.004044	+1.89%	0.0345	✓	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.004065	+1.39%	0.004051	+1.04%	0.0072	✓	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.004897	-0.08%	0.003918	-20.06%	0.2140	✓	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.004847	+0.25%	0.004142	-14.32%	0.1459	✗	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.004758	+0.84%	0.00412	-12.67%	0.1315	✗	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.004605	+1.66%	0.004078	-9.97%	0.1070	✗	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.004834	+1.89%	0.004432	-6.56%	0.0698	✗	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.005191	+2.46%	0.003817	-24.66%	0.2972	✗	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.005043	+0.54%	0.004988	-0.55%	0.0162	✓	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.005051	+1.17%	0.005017	+0.48%	0.0211	✓	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.00475	+1.72%	0.005013	+7.36%	0.0698	✓	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.005108	+1.22%	0.004268	-15.43%	0.1622	✗	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005188	+1.64%	0.004541	-11.03%	0.1180	✗	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.005288	+1.72%	0.004455	-14.32%	0.1524	✗	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.005577	+3.56%	0.004617	-14.26%	0.1753	✗	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.005568	+2.79%	0.004728	-12.72%	0.1464	✗	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.005365	+2.56%	0.005116	-2.20%	0.0271	✗	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.005434	+2.99%	0.004436	-15.93%	0.1844	✗	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.005284	+2.07%	0.004354	-15.89%	0.1623	✗	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.005155	+1.34%	0.004336	-14.75%	0.1367	✗	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.005022	+1.94%	0.004372	-11.25%	0.1286	✗	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.005687	-1.61%	0.004563	-21.05%	0.2328	✓	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.005497	-4.38%	0.004794	-16.60%	0.1491	✓	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.005423	-6.82%	0.005449	-6.36%	0.0101	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.005481	-6.95%	0.004344	-26.25%	0.2474	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.005548	-7.38%	0.003837	-35.94%	0.3866	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.005555	-7.31%	0.003874	-35.35%	0.3816	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.005484	-7.30%	0.003645	-38.39%	0.4275	✓	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.005493	-7.35%	0.003056	-48.46%	0.6068	✓	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.005643	-7.01%	0.003884	-35.99%	0.3938	✓	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.006057	-6.44%	0.003968	-38.70%	0.4414	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.006375	-6.22%	0.00401	-41.02%	0.4811	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.00635	-6.37%	0.004901	-27.73%	0.2791	✓	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.00601	-6.90%	0.004835	-25.10%	0.2390	✓	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.006474	-6.74%	0.004718	-32.04%	0.3404	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.006583	-6.97%	0.004529	-35.99%	0.3990	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.006793	-7.20%	0.004744	-35.20%	0.3819	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.006049	-7.91%	0.005066	-22.87%	0.1819	✓	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.005846	-8.40%	0.005016	-21.42%	0.1500	✓	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.005522	-9.01%	0.004993	-17.74%	0.0972	✓	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.005396	-9.41%	0.004669	-21.61%	0.1315	✓	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.00544	-9.48%	0.005046	-16.03%	0.0627	✓	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.005427	-9.24%	0.005104	-14.63%	0.0616	✓	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.00548	-9.11%	0.005199	-13.77%	0.0499	✓	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.005314	-9.23%	0.005385	-8.01%	0.0181	✓	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.005576	-8.90%	0.005417	-11.50%	0.0258	✓	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.005811	-8.29%	0.005231	-17.44%	0.0972	✓	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.005773	-8.57%	0.005276	-16.43%	0.0723	✓	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.005733	-8.67%	0.005177	-17.53%	0.0833	✓	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.005689	-8.41%	0.005087	-18.09%	0.1031	✓	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.005631	-8.17%	0.004926	-19.66%	0.1346	✓	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.005839	-8.15%	0.00578	-9.08%	0.0100	✓	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.005696	-8.88%	0.005749	-8.03%	0.0147	✓	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.005273	-9.11%	0.00582	+0.32%	0.0987	✗	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.005256	-9.39%	0.00589	+1.54%	0.1131	✗	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.005214	-10.08%	0.00599	+3.30%	0.1349	✗	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.005417	-10.34%	0.005993	-0.80%	0.0983	✓	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.005469	-10.45%	0.005916	-3.12%	0.0731	✓	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.005761	-10.69%	0.005929	-8.08%	0.0531	✓	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.004741	-12.86%	0.006068	+11.55%	0.2287	✗	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.005141	-12.31%	0.006474	+10.43%	0.2339	✗	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.004731	-13.71%	0.006798	+23.98%	0.3602	✗	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.004202	-15.96%	0.006782	+35.64%	0.4675	✗	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.004715	-15.76%	0.006455	+15.32%	0.2870	✗	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.003189	-21.87%	0.006942	+70.08%	0.7362	✗	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.002889	-25.23%	0.007076	+83.15%	0.8811	✗	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.002002	-38.21%	0.00732	+125.94%	1.2871	✗	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.001786	-44.91%	0.006568	+102.62%	1.2950	✗	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.001271	-57.62%	0.006383	+112.76%	1.6074	✗	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.000666568	-72.71%	0.00607	+148.53%	2.1933	✗	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.006011	-9.27%	0.005956	-10.09%	0.0297	✓	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.00655	-8.89%	0.006009	-16.41%	0.1328	✓	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.006227	-10.19%	0.005979	-13.75%	0.1412	✓	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.007298	-7.77%	0.006029	-23.81%	0.2512	✓	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.008165	-7.05%	0.005854	-33.37%	0.4038	✓	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.008379	-6.82%	0.006121	-31.93%	0.3748	✓	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.008554	-6.71%	0.006336	-30.90%	0.3854	✓	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.008689	-6.70%	0.006314	-32.21%	0.3935	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.009822	-6.03%	0.006277	-39.94%	0.4973	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.