XEF

Xeffy · native · gru_s0

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 360

Track record at +1d

assessed

119

of 120 predictions shown

direction hit

49.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0641

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0103

actual -0.0077

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.004362	0.004336	-0.59%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.004316	-0.56%	0.004362	+0.50%	0.0095	✗	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.004339	-0.60%	0.00434	-0.57%	0.0048	✓	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.004275	-0.58%	0.004365	+1.53%	0.0203	✗	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.00449	-0.69%	0.0043	-4.90%	0.0410	✓	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.00451	-0.75%	0.004521	-0.51%	0.0020	✓	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.004544	-0.81%	0.004544	-0.80%	0.0022	✓	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.004304	-0.81%	0.004581	+5.57%	0.0645	✗	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.004137	-0.68%	0.004339	+4.17%	0.0423	✗	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.004087	-0.80%	0.004166	+1.10%	0.0236	✗	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.003986	-0.66%	0.00412	+2.69%	0.0317	✗	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.004014	-0.74%	0.004012	-0.77%	0.0003	✓	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.004018	-0.81%	0.004044	-0.18%	0.0063	✓	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.003886	-0.81%	0.004051	+3.39%	0.0420	✗	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.004113	-0.70%	0.003918	-5.42%	0.0508	✓	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.0041	-0.49%	0.004142	+0.54%	0.0102	✗	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.00406	-0.44%	0.00412	+1.04%	0.0147	✗	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.004409	-0.52%	0.004078	-8.01%	0.0794	✓	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.003799	-0.48%	0.004432	+16.13%	0.1585	✗	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.004958	-0.60%	0.003817	-23.48%	0.2610	✓	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.004986	-0.62%	0.004988	-0.58%	0.0003	✓	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.004968	-0.90%	0.005017	+0.08%	0.0181	✗	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.004242	-0.60%	0.005013	+17.46%	0.1664	✗	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.00451	-0.69%	0.004268	-6.02%	0.0540	✓	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.004429	-0.57%	0.004541	+1.95%	0.0202	✗	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.004592	-0.54%	0.004455	-3.51%	0.0301	✓	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.0047	-0.59%	0.004617	-2.36%	0.0163	✓	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.005068	-0.94%	0.004728	-7.58%	0.0709	✓	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.004409	-0.60%	0.005116	+15.33%	0.1487	✗	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.004334	-0.45%	0.004436	+1.88%	0.0161	✗	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.004319	-0.40%	0.004354	+0.40%	0.0068	✗	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.004344	-0.64%	0.004336	-0.82%	0.0214	✗	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.004536	-0.61%	0.004372	-4.19%	0.0370	✓	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.004762	-0.66%	0.004563	-4.81%	0.0412	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.005361	-1.62%	0.004794	-12.02%	0.1013	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004324	-0.45%	0.005449	+25.44%	0.2317	✗	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.003841	+0.10%	0.004344	+13.22%	0.1263	✓	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.003875	+0.01%	0.003837	-0.96%	0.0200	✗	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003652	+0.20%	0.003874	+6.28%	0.0632	✓	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.003074	+0.62%	0.003645	+19.30%	0.1691	✓	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.003892	+0.20%	0.003056	-21.33%	0.2417	✗	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.003977	+0.20%	0.003884	-2.12%	0.0218	✗	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.004018	+0.22%	0.003968	-1.03%	0.0171	✗	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.004893	-0.17%	0.00401	-18.19%	0.1996	✓	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.004829	-0.12%	0.004901	+1.38%	0.0131	✗	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.004718	+0.01%	0.004835	+2.48%	0.0213	✓	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.004534	+0.11%	0.004718	+4.16%	0.0409	✓	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.004748	+0.09%	0.004529	-4.52%	0.0468	✗	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.00507	+0.07%	0.004744	-6.37%	0.0714	✗	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.005015	-0.01%	0.005066	+1.01%	0.0254	✗	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.004993	+0.01%	0.005016	+0.46%	0.0042	✓	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.004676	+0.14%	0.004993	+6.93%	0.0617	✓	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.005049	+0.06%	0.004669	-7.47%	0.0755	✗	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005108	+0.07%	0.005046	-1.14%	0.0139	✗	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.005201	+0.05%	0.005104	-1.82%	0.0176	✗	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.005388	+0.06%	0.005199	-3.45%	0.0440	✗	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.005417	+0.00%	0.005385	-0.60%	0.0017	✗	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.005232	+0.02%	0.005417	+3.57%	0.0366	✓	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.005277	+0.01%	0.005231	-0.86%	0.0104	✗	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.005176	-0.02%	0.005276	+1.93%	0.0241	✗	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.005085	-0.04%	0.005177	+1.76%	0.0206	✗	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.004928	+0.03%	0.005087	+3.26%	0.0271	✓	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.005763	-0.30%	0.004926	-14.77%	0.1651	✓	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.005719	-0.52%	0.00578	+0.54%	0.0065	✗	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.005777	-0.73%	0.005749	-1.22%	0.0111	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.005846	-0.75%	0.00582	-1.20%	0.0049	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.005942	-0.80%	0.00589	-1.66%	0.0113	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.005946	-0.79%	0.00599	-0.04%	0.0077	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.005872	-0.76%	0.005993	+1.29%	0.0203	✗	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.005885	-0.74%	0.005916	-0.21%	0.0060	✓	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.006028	-0.66%	0.005929	-2.30%	0.0166	✓	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.006431	-0.66%	0.006068	-6.27%	0.0579	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.006748	-0.74%	0.006474	-4.76%	0.0409	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.006727	-0.81%	0.006798	+0.23%	0.0120	✗	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.006407	-0.73%	0.006782	+5.07%	0.0569	✗	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.006884	-0.85%	0.006455	-7.02%	0.0644	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.007016	-0.85%	0.006942	-1.89%	0.0117	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.007236	-1.16%	0.007076	-3.33%	0.0217	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.006501	-1.03%	0.00732	+11.45%	0.1185	✗	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.006314	-1.08%	0.006568	+2.91%	0.0397	✗	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.006005	-1.06%	0.006383	+5.16%	0.0610	✗	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.005894	-1.05%	0.00607	+1.90%	0.0300	✗	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.005944	-1.09%	0.005956	-0.88%	0.0021	✓	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.005914	-1.09%	0.006009	+0.50%	0.0160	✗	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.005968	-1.01%	0.005979	-0.82%	0.0021	✓	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.0058	-0.91%	0.006029	+3.00%	0.0387	✗	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.006069	-0.86%	0.005854	-4.37%	0.0360	✓	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.006277	-0.94%	0.006121	-3.39%	0.0262	✓	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.006252	-0.98%	0.006336	+0.36%	0.0148	✗	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.006211	-1.06%	0.006314	+0.58%	0.0167	✗	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.006144	-1.08%	0.006277	+1.07%	0.0207	✗	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.006068	-1.05%	0.006211	+1.29%	0.0234	✗	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.006269	-1.38%	0.006132	-3.54%	0.0222	✓	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.006143	-1.71%	0.006357	+1.71%	0.0360	✗	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.005727	-1.28%	0.00625	+7.74%	0.0889	✗	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.005725	-1.31%	0.005801	+0.01%	0.0129	✓	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.005717	-1.41%	0.005801	+0.04%	0.0179	✗	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.005946	-1.58%	0.005798	-4.02%	0.0246	✓	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.006006	-1.64%	0.006041	-1.07%	0.0027	✓	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.006305	-2.26%	0.006107	-5.32%	0.0277	✓	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.00533	-2.03%	0.00645	+18.56%	0.1479	✗	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.005733	-2.21%	0.00544	-7.20%	0.0290	✓	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.005355	-2.34%	0.005863	+6.93%	0.0911	✗	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.004866	-2.69%	0.005483	+9.66%	0.1250	✗	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.005386	-3.78%	0.005	-10.67%	0.0893	✓	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.003945	-3.36%	0.005597	+37.13%	0.3350	✗	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.003716	-3.82%	0.004082	+5.64%	0.1111	✗	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.003065	-5.40%	0.003864	+19.25%	0.2422	✗	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.003034	-6.40%	0.00324	-0.06%	0.0590	✓	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.002732	-8.93%	0.003242	+8.06%	0.1632	✗	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.002139	-12.41%	0.003	+22.84%	0.3292	✗	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.006526	-1.49%	0.002442	-63.13%	0.9996	✓	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.007129	-0.84%	0.006625	-7.85%	0.0984	✓	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.006879	-0.78%	0.007189	+3.69%	0.0199	✗	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.007862	-0.65%	0.006933	-12.39%	0.0981	✓	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.008728	-0.65%	0.007913	-9.92%	0.1095	✓	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.008937	-0.62%	0.008785	-2.31%	0.0094	✓	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.009115	-0.59%	0.008992	-1.93%	0.0125	✓	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.009263	-0.54%	0.009169	-1.55%	0.0152	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.01039	-0.60%	0.009313	-10.90%	0.0882	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.