UPROBINHOOD

? · · gru_s0

token id: #949
symbol: UPROBINHOOD
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-11
predictions: 189

Track record at +1d

assessed

62

of 63 predictions shown

direction hit

62.9%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1473

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0145

actual +0.0133

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.276795	0.273064	-1.35%	–	pending	–	–	2.34
2026-10-20	oos	0.277585	0.273619	-1.43%	0.276795	-0.28%	0.0184	✗	2.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.24885	0.245563	-1.32%	0.277585	+11.55%	0.0916	✗	2.32
2026-10-18	oos	0.21966	0.21715	-1.14%	0.24885	+13.29%	0.1411	✗	2.35
2026-10-17	oos	0.23107	0.228673	-1.04%	0.21966	-4.94%	0.0582	✓	2.35
2026-10-16	oos	0.28208	0.278453	-1.29%	0.23107	-18.08%	0.1831	✓	2.32
2026-10-15	oos	0.279945	0.276045	-1.39%	0.28208	+0.76%	0.0394	✗	2.33
2026-10-14	oos	0.27437	0.270591	-1.38%	0.279945	+2.03%	0.0181	✗	2.33
2026-10-13	oos	0.297375	0.28896	-2.83%	0.27437	-7.74%	0.0087	✓	2.31
2026-10-12	oos	0.198445	0.197891	-0.28%	0.297375	+49.85%	0.3716	✗	2.16
2026-10-11	oos	0.23632	0.233582	-1.16%	0.198445	-16.03%	0.1148	✓	2.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.20848	0.207887	-0.28%	0.23632	+13.35%	0.1094	✗	2.04
2026-10-09	oos	0.20578	0.205665	-0.06%	0.20848	+1.31%	0.0046	✗	2.04
2026-10-08	oos	0.19801	0.198614	+0.31%	0.20578	+3.92%	0.0143	✓	2.03
2026-10-07	oos	0.22919	0.228569	-0.27%	0.19801	-13.60%	0.1059	✓	1.96
2026-10-06	oos	0.24363	0.241891	-0.71%	0.22919	-5.93%	0.0012	✓	1.96
2026-10-05	oos	0.266405	0.263486	-1.10%	0.24363	-8.55%	0.0736	✓	1.94
2026-10-04	oos	0.28781	0.283454	-1.51%	0.266405	-7.44%	0.0451	✓	1.92
2026-10-03	oos	0.290305	0.286043	-1.47%	0.28781	-0.86%	0.0338	✓	1.94
2026-10-02	oos	0.27341	0.270344	-1.12%	0.290305	+6.18%	0.0658	✗	1.95
2026-10-01	oos	0.29989	0.295473	-1.47%	0.27341	-8.83%	0.0698	✓	1.92
2026-09-30	oos	0.40591	0.397379	-2.10%	0.29989	-26.12%	0.3127	✓	2.04
2026-09-29	oos	0.39374	0.383294	-2.65%	0.40591	+3.09%	0.0593	✗	2.05
2026-09-28	oos	0.291185	0.287535	-1.25%	0.39374	+35.22%	0.3098	✗	2.08
2026-09-27	oos	0.31507	0.309638	-1.72%	0.291185	-7.58%	0.0368	✓	2.06
2026-09-26	oos	0.36447	0.356774	-2.11%	0.31507	-13.55%	0.1254	✓	2.03
2026-09-25	oos	0.33586	0.329118	-2.01%	0.36447	+8.52%	0.0942	✗	2.04
2026-09-24	oos	0.33996	0.333067	-2.03%	0.33586	-1.21%	0.0154	✓	2.04
2026-09-23	oos	0.39528	0.387318	-2.01%	0.33996	-14.00%	0.1306	✓	2.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.482965	0.473005	-2.06%	0.39528	-18.16%	0.1403	✓	1.84
2026-09-21	oos	0.55709	0.544333	-2.29%	0.482965	-13.31%	0.1115	✓	1.78
2026-09-20	oos	0.46212	0.454533	-1.64%	0.55709	+20.55%	0.1000	✗	1.60
2026-09-19	oos	0.485615	0.477833	-1.60%	0.46212	-4.84%	0.0320	✓	1.58
2026-09-18	oos	0.58476	0.570142	-2.50%	0.485615	-16.95%	0.1674	✓	1.56
2026-09-17	oos	0.47322	0.467595	-1.19%	0.58476	+23.57%	0.1509	✗	1.26
2026-09-16	oos	0.37378	0.374067	+0.08%	0.47322	+26.60%	0.2317	✓	1.29
2026-09-15	oos	0.318955	0.320934	+0.62%	0.37378	+17.19%	0.1430	✓	1.27
2026-09-14	oos	0.37084	0.371258	+0.11%	0.318955	-13.99%	0.1166	✗	1.05
2026-09-13	oos	0.379015	0.379538	+0.14%	0.37084	-2.16%	0.0422	✗	1.07
2026-09-12	oos	0.353985	0.354249	+0.07%	0.379015	+7.07%	0.0743	✓	1.12
2026-09-11	oos	0.382085	0.381274	-0.21%	0.353985	-7.35%	0.0750	✓	1.10
2026-09-10	oos	0.396465	0.3948	-0.42%	0.382085	-3.63%	0.0424	✓	1.11
2026-09-09	oos	0.41882	0.415126	-0.88%	0.396465	-5.34%	0.0234	✓	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.50196	0.496254	-1.14%	0.41882	-16.56%	0.1676	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.55791	0.55108	-1.22%	0.50196	-10.03%	0.0852	✓	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.679235	0.66975	-1.40%	0.55791	-17.86%	0.1671	✓	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.790295	0.772715	-2.22%	0.679235	-14.05%	0.1353	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.63101	0.622962	-1.28%	0.790295	+25.24%	0.2360	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.76968	0.757008	-1.65%	0.63101	-18.02%	0.1623	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.838135	0.821026	-2.04%	0.76968	-8.17%	0.1145	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.87428	0.850042	-2.77%	0.838135	-4.13%	0.0129	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.91438	0.856119	-6.37%	0.87428	-4.39%	0.0359	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.52462	0.500352	-4.63%	0.91438	+74.29%	0.5914	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.32435	0.316454	-2.43%	0.52462	+61.75%	0.5128	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.24126	0.238678	-1.07%	0.32435	+34.44%	0.3017	✗	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.26469	0.260562	-1.56%	0.24126	-8.85%	0.0461	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.37223	0.349722	-6.05%	0.26469	-28.89%	0.2943	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.15754	0.156763	-0.49%	0.37223	+136.28%	0.8584	✗	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.19865	0.195268	-1.70%	0.15754	-20.69%	0.2089	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.1409	0.139427	-1.05%	0.19865	+40.99%	0.3380	✗	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.0851	0.084692	-0.48%	0.1409	+65.57%	0.5003	✗	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.1107	0.110572	-0.12%	0.0851	-23.13%	0.2455	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.1054	0.104886	-0.49%	0.1107	+5.03%	0.0163	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.