SWM
Swarm · · gru_s0
- token id
- #257
- symbol
- SWM
- variant
- –
- chain
- address
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-08-19
- predictions
- 168
Track record at +7d
assessed
49
of 56 predictions shown
direction hit
55.1%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.2559
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0342
actual +0.0251
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.090935 | 0.089167 | -1.94% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.090825 | 0.089128 | -1.87% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.091445 | 0.089632 | -1.98% | – | pending | – | – | -1.56 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.09194 | 0.089891 | -2.23% | – | pending | – | – | -1.57 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.093595 | 0.09145 | -2.29% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.09361 | 0.091081 | -2.70% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.09504 | 0.092281 | -2.90% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.08869 | 0.086033 | -3.00% | 0.090935 | +2.53% | 0.0945 | ✗ | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.089875 | 0.087157 | -3.02% | 0.090825 | +1.06% | 0.0874 | ✗ | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.10361 | 0.100338 | -3.16% | 0.091445 | -11.74% | 0.0961 | ✓ | -1.69 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.100975 | 0.097755 | -3.19% | 0.09194 | -8.95% | 0.0593 | ✓ | -1.72 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.10023 | 0.097175 | -3.05% | 0.093595 | -6.62% | 0.0728 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.100065 | 0.096891 | -3.17% | 0.09361 | -6.45% | 0.0671 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.09889 | 0.095779 | -3.15% | 0.09504 | -3.89% | 0.0301 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.099015 | 0.095827 | -3.22% | 0.08869 | -10.43% | 0.0681 | ✓ | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.096365 | 0.093398 | -3.08% | 0.089875 | -6.73% | 0.0749 | ✓ | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.098365 | 0.095533 | -2.88% | 0.10361 | +5.33% | 0.0282 | ✓ | -1.83 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.084465 | 0.082265 | -2.60% | 0.100975 | +19.55% | 0.1195 | ✗ | -1.78 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.092855 | 0.090424 | -2.62% | 0.10023 | +7.94% | 0.0417 | ✗ | -1.84 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.090795 | 0.087974 | -3.11% | 0.100065 | +10.21% | 0.0874 | ✗ | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.09368 | 0.090569 | -3.32% | 0.09889 | +5.56% | 0.0435 | ✗ | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.095145 | 0.091932 | -3.38% | 0.099015 | +4.07% | 0.0023 | ✓ | -1.90 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.10818 | 0.104295 | -3.59% | 0.096365 | -10.92% | 0.0853 | ✓ | -1.86 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.12674 | 0.122007 | -3.73% | 0.098365 | -22.39% | 0.1728 | ✓ | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.123535 | 0.118907 | -3.75% | 0.084465 | -31.63% | 0.2908 | ✓ | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.15819 | 0.150794 | -4.68% | 0.092855 | -41.30% | 0.4349 | ✓ | -2.09 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.127905 | 0.123065 | -3.78% | 0.090795 | -29.01% | 0.2962 | ✓ | -2.04 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.10542 | 0.101789 | -3.44% | 0.09368 | -11.14% | 0.0731 | ✓ | -2.03 |
| 2026-09-24 | oos | 0.10401 | 0.100473 | -3.40% | 0.095145 | -8.52% | 0.0434 | ✓ | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-23 | oos | 0.10388 | 0.100276 | -3.47% | 0.10818 | +4.14% | 0.0561 | ✗ | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-22 | oos | 0.094815 | 0.091802 | -3.18% | 0.12674 | +33.67% | 0.2639 | ✗ | -1.94 |
| 2026-09-21 | oos | 0.10284 | 0.099942 | -2.82% | 0.123535 | +20.12% | 0.1388 | ✗ | -1.98 |
| 2026-09-20 | oos | 0.11312 | 0.10821 | -4.34% | 0.15819 | +39.84% | 0.4648 | ✗ | -2.13 |
| 2026-09-19 | oos | 0.11891 | 0.113898 | -4.22% | 0.127905 | +7.56% | 0.1985 | ✗ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-18 | oos | 0.1196 | 0.114556 | -4.22% | 0.10542 | -11.86% | 0.0007 | ✓ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-17 | oos | 0.12931 | 0.121706 | -5.88% | 0.10401 | -19.57% | 0.2572 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | oos | 0.14044 | 0.132008 | -6.00% | 0.10388 | -26.03% | 0.3423 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | oos | 0.129815 | 0.122188 | -5.88% | 0.094815 | -26.96% | 0.3850 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | oos | 0.15573 | 0.147393 | -5.35% | 0.10284 | -33.96% | 0.4622 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | oos | 0.156615 | 0.147783 | -5.64% | 0.11312 | -27.77% | 0.3225 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | oos | 0.18555 | 0.173929 | -6.26% | 0.11891 | -35.91% | 0.4304 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | oos | 0.196105 | 0.182682 | -6.84% | 0.1196 | -39.01% | 0.4700 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | oos | 0.18591 | 0.171821 | -7.58% | 0.12931 | -30.44% | 0.2818 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | oos | 0.1367 | 0.130609 | -4.46% | 0.14044 | +2.74% | 0.1003 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | oos | 0.13717 | 0.130773 | -4.66% | 0.129815 | -5.36% | 0.0298 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | oos | 0.117485 | 0.11319 | -3.66% | 0.15573 | +32.55% | 0.3307 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | oos | 0.102915 | 0.100394 | -2.45% | 0.156615 | +52.18% | 0.4897 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | oos | 0.07698 | 0.07636 | -0.81% | 0.18555 | +141.04% | 0.9206 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | oos | 0.07564 | 0.075154 | -0.64% | 0.196105 | +159.26% | 0.9906 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | oos | 0.07329 | 0.073178 | -0.15% | 0.18591 | +153.66% | 0.9923 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | oos | 0.07012 | 0.069708 | -0.59% | 0.1367 | +94.95% | 0.6609 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | oos | 0.06978 | 0.069464 | -0.45% | 0.13717 | +96.57% | 0.6669 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | oos | 0.06946 | 0.069345 | -0.17% | 0.117485 | +69.14% | 0.5205 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-30 | oos | 0.07144 | 0.071122 | -0.45% | 0.102915 | +44.06% | 0.3357 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | oos | 0.07166 | 0.071388 | -0.38% | 0.07698 | +7.42% | 0.0552 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | oos | 0.07463 | 0.073862 | -1.03% | 0.07564 | +1.35% | 0.0005 | ✓ | 1.00 |