SWM

Swarm · · gru_s0

token id: #257
symbol: SWM
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 165

Track record at +1d

assessed

54

of 55 predictions shown

direction hit

48.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0740

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0099

actual +0.0042

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.09181	0.091369	-0.48%	–	pending	–	–	-1.57
2026-10-20	oos	0.091445	0.091001	-0.49%	0.09181	+0.40%	0.0043	✓	-1.56
2026-10-19	oos	0.09194	0.091437	-0.55%	0.091445	-0.54%	0.0211	✗	-1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.093595	0.093045	-0.59%	0.09194	-1.77%	0.0152	✓	-1.58
2026-10-17	oos	0.09361	0.092971	-0.68%	0.093595	-0.02%	0.0188	✗	-1.58
2026-10-16	oos	0.09504	0.094321	-0.76%	0.09361	-1.50%	0.0099	✓	-1.58
2026-10-15	oos	0.08869	0.088112	-0.65%	0.09504	+7.16%	0.0639	✗	-1.55
2026-10-14	oos	0.089875	0.089329	-0.61%	0.08869	-1.32%	0.0034	✓	-1.55
2026-10-13	oos	0.10361	0.102733	-0.85%	0.089875	-13.26%	0.1652	✓	-1.69
2026-10-12	oos	0.100975	0.100177	-0.79%	0.10361	+2.61%	0.0621	✗	-1.72
2026-10-11	oos	0.10023	0.099459	-0.77%	0.100975	+0.74%	0.0258	✓	-1.75
2026-10-10	oos	0.100065	0.099249	-0.82%	0.10023	+0.16%	0.0260	✗	-1.75
2026-10-09	oos	0.09889	0.098141	-0.76%	0.100065	+1.19%	0.0272	✗	-1.75
2026-10-08	oos	0.099015	0.098259	-0.76%	0.09889	-0.13%	0.0247	✗	-1.76
2026-10-07	oos	0.096365	0.095651	-0.74%	0.099015	+2.75%	0.0008	✓	-1.76
2026-10-06	oos	0.098365	0.097562	-0.82%	0.096365	-2.03%	0.0615	✓	-1.83
2026-10-05	oos	0.084465	0.084018	-0.53%	0.098365	+16.46%	0.1533	✗	-1.78
2026-10-04	oos	0.092855	0.092258	-0.64%	0.084465	-9.04%	0.1045	✓	-1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.090795	0.090171	-0.69%	0.092855	+2.27%	0.0683	✗	-1.89
2026-10-02	oos	0.09368	0.092965	-0.76%	0.090795	-3.08%	0.0183	✓	-1.89
2026-10-01	oos	0.095145	0.094463	-0.72%	0.09368	-1.54%	0.0160	✓	-1.90
2026-09-30	oos	0.10818	0.107302	-0.81%	0.095145	-12.05%	0.0918	✓	-1.86
2026-09-29	oos	0.12674	0.125451	-1.02%	0.10818	-14.64%	0.1500	✓	-1.89
2026-09-28	oos	0.123535	0.122344	-0.96%	0.12674	+2.59%	0.0394	✗	-1.89
2026-09-27	oos	0.15819	0.155327	-1.81%	0.123535	-21.91%	0.2540	✓	-2.09
2026-09-26	oos	0.127905	0.126317	-1.24%	0.15819	+23.68%	0.2261	✗	-2.04
2026-09-25	oos	0.10542	0.104422	-0.95%	0.127905	+21.33%	0.2106	✗	-2.03
2026-09-24	oos	0.10401	0.103053	-0.92%	0.10542	+1.36%	0.0157	✗	-2.02
2026-09-23	oos	0.10388	0.1029	-0.94%	0.10401	+0.13%	0.0109	✗	-2.02
2026-09-22	oos	0.094815	0.094102	-0.75%	0.10388	+9.56%	0.0574	✗	-1.94
2026-09-21	oos	0.10284	0.102145	-0.68%	0.094815	-7.80%	0.0836	✓	-1.98
2026-09-20	oos	0.11312	0.111923	-1.06%	0.10284	-9.09%	0.0537	✗	-2.13
2026-09-19	oos	0.11891	0.117635	-1.07%	0.11312	-4.87%	0.0411	✓	-2.15
2026-09-18	oos	0.1196	0.118362	-1.04%	0.11891	-0.58%	0.0141	✗	-2.15
2026-09-17	oos	0.12931	0.127503	-1.40%	0.1196	-7.51%	0.1216	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.14044	0.138218	-1.58%	0.12931	-7.93%	0.0693	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.129815	0.12808	-1.34%	0.14044	+8.18%	0.0847	✗	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.15573	0.153395	-1.50%	0.129815	-16.64%	0.1332	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.156615	0.154277	-1.49%	0.15573	-0.57%	0.0084	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.18555	0.181934	-1.95%	0.156615	-15.59%	0.1438	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.196105	0.191461	-2.37%	0.18555	-5.38%	0.0321	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.18591	0.180118	-3.12%	0.196105	+5.48%	0.0763	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.1367	0.134317	-1.74%	0.18591	+36.00%	0.3476	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.13717	0.134401	-2.02%	0.1367	-0.34%	0.0191	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.117485	0.11532	-1.84%	0.13717	+16.76%	0.1817	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.102915	0.101516	-1.36%	0.117485	+14.16%	0.1617	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.07698	0.076601	-0.49%	0.102915	+33.69%	0.2890	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07564	0.075287	-0.47%	0.07698	+1.77%	0.0203	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07329	0.073062	-0.31%	0.07564	+3.21%	0.0544	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07012	0.069886	-0.33%	0.07329	+4.52%	0.0024	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.06978	0.069551	-0.33%	0.07012	+0.49%	0.0093	✗	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.06946	0.069263	-0.28%	0.06978	+0.46%	0.0224	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07144	0.071141	-0.42%	0.06946	-2.77%	0.0354	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07166	0.071305	-0.50%	0.07144	-0.31%	0.0092	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07463	0.073777	-1.14%	0.07166	-3.98%	0.0342	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.