SWM
Swarm · · gru_s0
- token id
- #257
- symbol
- SWM
- variant
- –
- chain
- address
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-08-19
- predictions
- 168
Track record at +30d
assessed
26
of 56 predictions shown
direction hit
65.4%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.2710
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.1055
actual -0.1438
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.090935 | 0.084776 | -6.77% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.090825 | 0.084641 | -6.81% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.091445 | 0.084831 | -7.23% | – | pending | – | – | -1.56 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.09194 | 0.084681 | -7.90% | – | pending | – | – | -1.57 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.093595 | 0.086034 | -8.08% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.09361 | 0.08507 | -9.12% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.09504 | 0.08591 | -9.61% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.08869 | 0.079604 | -10.24% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.089875 | 0.080576 | -10.35% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.10361 | 0.09314 | -10.11% | – | pending | – | – | -1.69 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.100975 | 0.090331 | -10.54% | – | pending | – | – | -1.72 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.10023 | 0.089626 | -10.58% | – | pending | – | – | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.100065 | 0.088961 | -11.10% | – | pending | – | – | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.09889 | 0.087476 | -11.54% | – | pending | – | – | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.099015 | 0.087063 | -12.07% | – | pending | – | – | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.096365 | 0.084424 | -12.39% | – | pending | – | – | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.098365 | 0.086345 | -12.22% | – | pending | – | – | -1.83 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.084465 | 0.072958 | -13.62% | – | pending | – | – | -1.78 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.092855 | 0.080863 | -12.92% | – | pending | – | – | -1.84 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.090795 | 0.077954 | -14.14% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.09368 | 0.08027 | -14.31% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.095145 | 0.081599 | -14.24% | – | pending | – | – | -1.90 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.10818 | 0.093691 | -13.39% | – | pending | – | – | -1.86 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.12674 | 0.110628 | -12.71% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.123535 | 0.107678 | -12.84% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.15819 | 0.137471 | -13.10% | – | pending | – | – | -2.09 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.127905 | 0.111408 | -12.90% | – | pending | – | – | -2.04 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.10542 | 0.091448 | -13.25% | – | pending | – | – | -2.03 |
| 2026-09-24 | oos | 0.10401 | 0.090243 | -13.24% | – | pending | – | – | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-23 | oos | 0.10388 | 0.09013 | -13.24% | – | pending | – | – | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-22 | oos | 0.094815 | 0.082969 | -12.49% | 0.090935 | -4.09% | 0.0465 | ✓ | -1.94 |
| 2026-09-21 | oos | 0.10284 | 0.090901 | -11.61% | 0.090825 | -11.68% | 0.0606 | ✓ | -1.98 |
| 2026-09-20 | oos | 0.11312 | 0.098089 | -13.29% | 0.091445 | -19.16% | 0.0239 | ✓ | -2.13 |
| 2026-09-19 | oos | 0.11891 | 0.103501 | -12.96% | 0.09194 | -22.68% | 0.1025 | ✓ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-18 | oos | 0.1196 | 0.104297 | -12.80% | 0.093595 | -21.74% | 0.0784 | ✓ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-17 | oos | 0.12931 | 0.110283 | -14.71% | 0.09361 | -27.61% | 0.2277 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | oos | 0.14044 | 0.119279 | -15.07% | 0.09504 | -32.33% | 0.2951 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | oos | 0.129815 | 0.110744 | -14.69% | 0.08869 | -31.68% | 0.3051 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | oos | 0.15573 | 0.133189 | -14.47% | 0.089875 | -42.29% | 0.4358 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | oos | 0.156615 | 0.133044 | -15.05% | 0.10361 | -33.84% | 0.3289 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | oos | 0.18555 | 0.154876 | -16.53% | 0.100975 | -45.58% | 0.4841 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | oos | 0.196105 | 0.161501 | -17.65% | 0.10023 | -48.89% | 0.5575 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | oos | 0.18591 | 0.15159 | -18.46% | 0.100065 | -46.18% | 0.4954 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | oos | 0.1367 | 0.118645 | -13.21% | 0.09889 | -27.66% | 0.2351 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | oos | 0.13717 | 0.118931 | -13.30% | 0.099015 | -27.82% | 0.2238 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | oos | 0.117485 | 0.10501 | -10.62% | 0.096365 | -17.98% | 0.1374 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | oos | 0.102915 | 0.095055 | -7.64% | 0.098365 | -4.42% | 0.0285 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | oos | 0.07698 | 0.073956 | -3.93% | 0.084465 | +9.72% | 0.0614 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | oos | 0.07564 | 0.073217 | -3.20% | 0.092855 | +22.76% | 0.1553 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | oos | 0.07329 | 0.072065 | -1.67% | 0.090795 | +23.88% | 0.1891 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | oos | 0.07012 | 0.067821 | -3.28% | 0.09368 | +33.60% | 0.2340 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | oos | 0.06978 | 0.0679 | -2.69% | 0.095145 | +36.35% | 0.2455 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | oos | 0.06946 | 0.068413 | -1.51% | 0.10818 | +55.74% | 0.3966 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-30 | oos | 0.07144 | 0.069984 | -2.04% | 0.12674 | +77.41% | 0.5198 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | oos | 0.07166 | 0.070722 | -1.31% | 0.123535 | +72.39% | 0.4931 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | oos | 0.07463 | 0.073569 | -1.42% | 0.15819 | +111.97% | 0.6839 | ✗ | 1.00 |