BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s0

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

190

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

49.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1417

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0081

actual -0.0066

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.050789	-0.14%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.050034	-0.18%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.04723	-0.28%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048692	-0.29%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.052773	-0.52%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.055497	-0.90%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044542	-0.13%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043674	-0.32%	0.05086	+16.08%	0.1400	✗	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047792	-0.15%	0.050125	+4.72%	0.0493	✗	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.054656	-0.10%	0.047365	-13.43%	0.1442	✓	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.066267	+0.05%	0.048835	-26.27%	0.2923	✗	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.068037	-0.01%	0.05305	-22.04%	0.2360	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.068473	-0.08%	0.056	-18.28%	0.1924	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.065865	-0.15%	0.0446	-32.39%	0.3935	✓	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.067432	-0.09%	0.043815	-35.08%	0.4174	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.067214	+0.12%	0.047865	-28.70%	0.3174	✗	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.062424	+0.41%	0.05471	-12.00%	0.0958	✗	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.062756	+0.55%	0.066235	+6.12%	0.0804	✓	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.062143	+0.44%	0.068045	+9.98%	0.1081	✓	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.063173	+0.53%	0.068525	+9.05%	0.1001	✓	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.065575	+0.54%	0.065965	+1.13%	0.0358	✓	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.066474	+0.48%	0.06749	+2.01%	0.0178	✓	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.067254	+0.53%	0.06713	+0.34%	0.0156	✗	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.067583	+0.58%	0.06217	-7.47%	0.1039	✗	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.071336	+0.53%	0.062415	-12.04%	0.1465	✗	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.071444	+0.44%	0.06187	-13.02%	0.1460	✗	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.069623	+0.59%	0.06284	-9.21%	0.1050	✗	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.067391	+0.75%	0.065225	-2.49%	0.0354	✗	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.064253	+0.95%	0.06616	+3.94%	0.0342	✓	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.069563	+0.93%	0.0669	-2.94%	0.0220	✗	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.06886	+1.00%	0.06719	-1.45%	0.0010	✓	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.066548	+0.61%	0.07096	+7.28%	0.0380	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.065932	+0.64%	0.071135	+8.59%	0.0507	✓	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.065605	+0.65%	0.069215	+6.19%	0.0294	✓	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.062728	+0.43%	0.06689	+7.09%	0.0073	✓	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.061724	+0.49%	0.06365	+3.63%	0.0283	✗	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.063437	+0.37%	0.068925	+9.06%	0.0301	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.06305	+0.65%	0.06818	+8.84%	0.0362	✓	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.062198	+0.60%	0.066145	+6.98%	0.0386	✓	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.064379	+0.54%	0.06551	+2.31%	0.0040	✓	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.064604	+0.56%	0.06518	+1.46%	0.0117	✗	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.061074	+0.80%	0.06246	+3.09%	0.0234	✓	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.062486	+0.90%	0.06142	-0.82%	0.0064	✓	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.068092	+0.62%	0.0632	-6.61%	0.0555	✗	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.06788	+0.65%	0.062645	-7.11%	0.0742	✗	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.067867	+0.68%	0.06183	-8.27%	0.0699	✗	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.069178	+0.62%	0.06403	-6.87%	0.0599	✗	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.069151	+0.72%	0.064245	-6.42%	0.0557	✗	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.070312	+0.98%	0.06059	-12.98%	0.1155	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.067503	+0.35%	0.06193	-7.94%	0.0928	✗	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.067725	+0.38%	0.06767	+0.30%	0.0082	✗	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.068848	+0.69%	0.06744	-1.37%	0.0235	✗	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.068222	+0.56%	0.067405	-0.64%	0.0302	✗	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.071075	+0.67%	0.068755	-2.61%	0.0436	✗	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071991	+0.71%	0.068655	-3.95%	0.0597	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.07412	+1.17%	0.06963	-4.95%	0.0688	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.073002	+1.09%	0.06727	-6.85%	0.0708	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.06973	+1.04%	0.067465	-2.24%	0.0258	✗	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.073117	+1.16%	0.068375	-5.40%	0.0645	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.074202	+1.02%	0.06784	-7.64%	0.0892	✗	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.075159	+0.97%	0.0706	-5.16%	0.0708	✗	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.091692	+0.84%	0.07148	-21.39%	0.2462	✗	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.084262	+0.10%	0.07326	-12.97%	0.1757	✗	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.080041	-0.87%	0.072215	-10.56%	0.1646	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.077068	-2.41%	0.06901	-12.62%	0.2083	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.07545	-2.54%	0.072275	-6.65%	0.1506	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.075682	-2.95%	0.07345	-5.82%	0.1477	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.077481	-2.87%	0.07444	-6.68%	0.1508	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.073297	-2.39%	0.09093	+21.09%	0.0932	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.073669	-2.26%	0.084175	+11.67%	0.0552	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.074924	-2.11%	0.080745	+5.49%	0.0158	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.075153	-1.97%	0.078975	+3.02%	0.0383	✗	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.075958	-1.79%	0.07742	+0.10%	0.0127	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.073029	-1.38%	0.077985	+5.31%	0.0882	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.076338	-1.14%	0.07977	+3.31%	0.0649	✗	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.077056	-1.07%	0.07509	-3.59%	0.0044	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.083163	-1.28%	0.075375	-10.52%	0.0882	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.079592	-1.14%	0.07654	-4.93%	0.0248	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.075989	-0.94%	0.07666	-0.07%	0.0147	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.075791	-0.90%	0.07734	+1.12%	0.0152	✗	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.075243	-0.83%	0.074055	-2.39%	0.0304	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.074598	-0.79%	0.077215	+2.69%	0.0126	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.078333	-0.89%	0.07789	-1.45%	0.0267	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.078885	-0.79%	0.08424	+5.94%	0.0705	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.079551	-0.80%	0.08051	+0.39%	0.0048	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.07866	-0.69%	0.07671	-3.16%	0.0270	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.078779	-0.68%	0.07648	-3.57%	0.0274	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.086541	-0.57%	0.07587	-12.83%	0.1158	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.084131	-0.53%	0.075195	-11.10%	0.0998	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.083985	-0.51%	0.07904	-6.37%	0.0505	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.0757	-0.30%	0.079515	+4.72%	0.0521	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.084046	-0.24%	0.080195	-4.81%	0.0279	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.085269	-0.17%	0.07921	-7.26%	0.0500	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.08564	-0.23%	0.079315	-7.60%	0.0658	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.089989	-0.29%	0.08704	-3.56%	0.0386	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.091867	-0.27%	0.08458	-8.18%	0.0767	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.091462	-0.28%	0.084415	-7.96%	0.0826	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.091063	-0.30%	0.07593	-16.87%	0.2007	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.089254	-0.24%	0.08425	-5.83%	0.0722	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.087189	-0.22%	0.08541	-2.25%	0.0396	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.094297	-0.45%	0.085835	-9.39%	0.1421	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.101755	-0.42%	0.09025	-11.68%	0.1345	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.097964	-0.35%	0.09212	-6.29%	0.0783	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.103515	-0.43%	0.09172	-11.77%	0.1175	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.110322	-0.99%	0.091335	-18.03%	0.1982	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.086562	-0.57%	0.08947	+2.77%	0.0008	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.084628	-0.49%	0.08738	+2.75%	0.0105	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.094397	-0.48%	0.094725	-0.13%	0.0254	✗	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.091879	-0.52%	0.102185	+10.64%	0.1041	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.091486	-0.58%	0.098305	+6.83%	0.0621	✗	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.094323	-0.67%	0.10396	+9.48%	0.0748	✗	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.100407	-0.81%	0.11142	+10.07%	0.0792	✗	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.127084	-2.64%	0.087055	-33.31%	0.4201	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.098199	-2.00%	0.08504	-15.13%	0.2160	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.080431	-1.00%	0.09485	+16.75%	0.0969	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.079595	-1.31%	0.09236	+14.52%	0.0906	✗	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.073914	-1.28%	0.09202	+22.90%	0.1736	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.066072	-1.40%	0.09496	+41.71%	0.3263	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.070216	-1.23%	0.101225	+42.39%	0.3394	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.082496	-1.11%	0.13053	+56.47%	0.4726	✗	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.097824	-1.67%	0.1002	+0.71%	0.0711	✗	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.093056	-1.26%	0.081245	-13.79%	0.0908	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.092357	-1.51%	0.08065	-13.99%	0.0904	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.087242	-1.37%	0.074875	-15.35%	0.0996	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.095929	-1.95%	0.06701	-31.51%	0.3130	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.09324	-2.19%	0.07109	-25.43%	0.2294	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.07658	-1.56%	0.08342	+7.23%	0.1399	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.074803	-1.75%	0.09949	+30.68%	0.3320	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.076723	-2.36%	0.094245	+19.94%	0.2416	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.07024	-1.83%	0.09377	+31.06%	0.3264	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.067864	-1.79%	0.08845	+28.00%	0.2680	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.073352	-2.09%	0.097835	+30.59%	0.2890	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.071533	-2.17%	0.09533	+30.37%	0.2981	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.062069	-1.26%	0.077795	+23.76%	0.1851	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.063804	-1.31%	0.076135	+17.76%	0.1240	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.0638	-1.45%	0.078575	+21.37%	0.1650	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.068952	-1.68%	0.07155	+2.02%	0.0048	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.065779	-0.93%	0.0691	+4.07%	0.0023	✓	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.0618	-0.55%	0.07492	+20.57%	0.1593	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.06235	-1.08%	0.07312	+16.01%	0.1627	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.069116	-1.47%	0.06286	-10.39%	0.0589	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.063991	-1.52%	0.06465	-0.51%	0.0940	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.069612	-2.30%	0.06474	-9.14%	0.0558	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.069495	-2.60%	0.07013	-1.71%	0.1778	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.074686	-2.97%	0.0664	-13.74%	0.0954	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.073738	-3.42%	0.06214	-18.61%	0.0320	✓	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.059788	-1.81%	0.06303	+3.51%	0.2162	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.061061	-1.85%	0.07015	+12.75%	0.3110	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.061033	-1.84%	0.06498	+4.51%	0.2184	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.067219	-2.23%	0.07125	+3.63%	0.1481	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.067143	-1.98%	0.07135	+4.16%	0.1115	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.070668	-1.92%	0.076975	+6.84%	0.1287	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.070013	-1.53%	0.07635	+7.38%	0.1179	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.082072	-2.30%	0.06089	-27.51%	0.2521	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.075453	-1.56%	0.062215	-18.83%	0.1562	✓	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.070284	-0.69%	0.062175	-12.14%	0.1121	✓	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.071164	-0.46%	0.068755	-3.83%	0.0378	✓	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.070335	-0.15%	0.0685	-2.75%	0.0216	✓	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.075576	-0.28%	0.07205	-4.93%	0.0323	✓	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.0748	-0.15%	0.0711	-5.09%	0.0104	✓	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.08655	-0.43%	0.084	-3.36%	0.0026	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.088387	-0.50%	0.07665	-13.71%	0.1275	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.109263	-1.14%	0.07077	-35.97%	0.4179	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.103886	-0.81%	0.07149	-31.74%	0.3466	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.097462	-0.81%	0.07044	-28.31%	0.2938	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.095285	-1.02%	0.07579	-21.27%	0.2131	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.089326	-0.84%	0.07491	-16.84%	0.1691	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.091098	-0.93%	0.08692	-5.48%	0.0534	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.087519	-0.60%	0.08883	+0.89%	0.0311	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.089914	-0.67%	0.11052	+22.09%	0.2095	✗	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.093902	-0.86%	0.10473	+10.57%	0.0943	✗	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.097837	-1.13%	0.09826	-0.71%	0.0266	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.114718	-1.44%	0.09627	-17.29%	0.1900	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.108739	-1.31%	0.09008	-18.24%	0.2028	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.110617	-1.56%	0.091955	-18.17%	0.2153	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.127358	-1.95%	0.088045	-32.22%	0.4187	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.135621	-2.06%	0.09052	-34.63%	0.4627	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.133833	-2.29%	0.09472	-30.84%	0.3773	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.131506	-1.72%	0.09896	-26.04%	0.2829	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.132016	-1.97%	0.11639	-13.58%	0.1392	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.120852	-1.49%	0.11018	-10.19%	0.1024	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.132798	-2.23%	0.11237	-17.27%	0.1415	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.113417	-1.15%	0.12989	+13.20%	0.1675	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.126837	-2.92%	0.13847	+5.99%	0.0882	✗	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.110285	-3.22%	0.136965	+20.19%	0.1971	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.085247	-1.11%	0.13381	+55.23%	0.3872	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.090344	-0.96%	0.134675	+47.64%	0.3743	✗	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.120153	-2.51%	0.122685	-0.46%	0.0161	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.150971	-9.14%	0.13582	-18.25%	0.1464	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.083967	-1.83%	0.11474	+34.14%	0.2682	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.074171	-1.30%	0.13065	+73.86%	0.5373	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.064945	-1.15%	0.11396	+73.46%	0.5434	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.058655	-1.43%	0.0862	+44.86%	0.3426	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.054165	-0.95%	0.09122	+66.81%	0.4856	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.053346	-0.95%	0.12325	+128.86%	0.7828	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.052993	-1.11%	0.16615	+210.04%	1.0969	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.06129	-1.05%	0.085535	+38.09%	0.2819	✗	1.00