BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s0

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 594

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

197

of 198 predictions shown

direction hit

53.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0601

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0059

actual -0.0009

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.054285	0.054058	-0.42%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.054325	0.054119	-0.38%	0.054285	-0.07%	0.0012	✓	0.83
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.049959	-0.33%	0.054325	+8.38%	0.0727	✗	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.047212	-0.32%	0.050125	+5.83%	0.0487	✗	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048682	-0.31%	0.047365	-3.01%	0.0257	✓	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.052775	-0.52%	0.048835	-7.95%	0.0840	✓	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.055606	-0.70%	0.05305	-5.27%	0.0458	✓	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044552	-0.11%	0.056	+25.56%	0.2356	✗	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.04376	-0.13%	0.0446	+1.79%	0.0129	✗	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047826	-0.08%	0.043815	-8.46%	0.0720	✓	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.054617	-0.17%	0.047865	-12.51%	0.1466	✓	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.066002	-0.35%	0.05471	-17.40%	0.1726	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.067768	-0.41%	0.066235	-2.66%	0.0292	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.068207	-0.46%	0.068045	-0.70%	0.0054	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.065646	-0.48%	0.068525	+3.88%	0.0358	✗	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.067136	-0.53%	0.065965	-2.26%	0.0049	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.066815	-0.47%	0.06749	+0.54%	0.0306	✗	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.061976	-0.31%	0.06713	+7.98%	0.0817	✗	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.06224	-0.28%	0.06217	-0.39%	0.0059	✗	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.06171	-0.26%	0.062415	+0.88%	0.0051	✓	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.062704	-0.22%	0.06187	-1.54%	0.0156	✓	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.065054	-0.26%	0.06284	-3.66%	0.0314	✓	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.065992	-0.25%	0.065225	-1.41%	0.0235	✓	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.066734	-0.25%	0.06616	-1.11%	0.0080	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.067042	-0.22%	0.0669	-0.43%	0.0038	✓	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.070738	-0.31%	0.06719	-5.31%	0.0450	✓	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.070902	-0.33%	0.07096	-0.25%	0.0005	✓	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.069059	-0.23%	0.071135	+2.77%	0.0276	✗	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.066781	-0.16%	0.069215	+3.48%	0.0376	✗	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063607	-0.07%	0.06689	+5.09%	0.0503	✗	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.068807	-0.17%	0.06365	-7.65%	0.0659	✓	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.068067	-0.17%	0.068925	+1.09%	0.0157	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.066049	-0.14%	0.06818	+3.08%	0.0108	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.065424	-0.13%	0.066145	+0.97%	0.0116	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.065096	-0.13%	0.06551	+0.51%	0.0036	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.06237	-0.14%	0.06518	+4.35%	0.0113	✗	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.061349	-0.11%	0.06246	+1.69%	0.0164	✗	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.063078	-0.19%	0.06142	-2.82%	0.0296	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062577	-0.11%	0.0632	+0.89%	0.0237	✗	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061765	-0.10%	0.062645	+1.32%	0.0068	✗	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.06393	-0.16%	0.06183	-3.44%	0.0308	✓	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.064142	-0.16%	0.06403	-0.33%	0.0021	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060571	-0.03%	0.064245	+6.03%	0.0554	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.061923	-0.01%	0.06059	-2.16%	0.0129	✓	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.067567	-0.15%	0.06193	-8.48%	0.0860	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.067356	-0.13%	0.06767	+0.34%	0.0089	✗	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.067334	-0.11%	0.06744	+0.05%	0.0096	✗	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.068656	-0.14%	0.067405	-1.96%	0.0218	✓	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.06858	-0.11%	0.068755	+0.15%	0.0014	✗	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.069586	-0.06%	0.068655	-1.40%	0.0025	✓	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.067118	-0.23%	0.06963	+3.51%	0.0102	✗	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.067314	-0.22%	0.06727	-0.29%	0.0000	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.068287	-0.13%	0.067465	-1.33%	0.0057	✓	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.06773	-0.16%	0.068375	+0.79%	0.0033	✗	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.070493	-0.15%	0.06784	-3.91%	0.0346	✓	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071393	-0.12%	0.0706	-1.23%	0.0138	✓	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.07325	-0.01%	0.07148	-2.43%	0.0085	✓	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.072216	+0.00%	0.07326	+1.45%	0.0065	✓	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.069033	+0.03%	0.072215	+4.64%	0.0419	✓	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.072298	+0.03%	0.06901	-4.52%	0.0437	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.07345	-0.00%	0.072275	-1.60%	0.0248	✓	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.074426	-0.02%	0.07345	-1.33%	0.0179	✓	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.090711	-0.24%	0.07444	-18.13%	0.1902	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.08385	-0.39%	0.09093	+8.02%	0.0546	✗	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.08027	-0.59%	0.084175	+4.25%	0.0230	✗	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.078347	-0.80%	0.080745	+2.24%	0.0047	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.076817	-0.78%	0.078975	+2.01%	0.0260	✗	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.077254	-0.94%	0.07742	-0.72%	0.0121	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.07893	-1.05%	0.077985	-2.24%	0.0105	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.074574	-0.69%	0.07977	+6.23%	0.0670	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.074858	-0.69%	0.07509	-0.38%	0.0071	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.076002	-0.70%	0.075375	-1.52%	0.0084	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.076123	-0.70%	0.07654	-0.16%	0.0067	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.076755	-0.76%	0.07666	-0.88%	0.0031	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.07363	-0.57%	0.07734	+4.44%	0.0596	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.076719	-0.64%	0.074055	-4.09%	0.0347	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.077373	-0.66%	0.077215	-0.87%	0.0022	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.083486	-0.89%	0.07789	-7.54%	0.0768	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.079852	-0.82%	0.08424	+4.63%	0.0575	✗	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.076183	-0.69%	0.08051	+4.95%	0.0490	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.07595	-0.69%	0.07671	+0.30%	0.0034	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.075357	-0.68%	0.07648	+0.80%	0.0152	✗	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.074697	-0.66%	0.07587	+0.90%	0.0080	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.07843	-0.77%	0.075195	-4.86%	0.0415	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.078947	-0.71%	0.07904	-0.60%	0.0214	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.079627	-0.71%	0.079515	-0.85%	0.0098	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.078714	-0.63%	0.080195	+1.24%	0.0182	✗	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.078826	-0.62%	0.07921	-0.13%	0.0034	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.086473	-0.65%	0.079315	-8.88%	0.0723	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.084064	-0.61%	0.08704	+2.91%	0.0264	✗	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.083908	-0.60%	0.08458	+0.20%	0.0063	✗	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.075643	-0.38%	0.084415	+11.17%	0.1184	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.083887	-0.43%	0.07593	-9.88%	0.0908	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.085073	-0.39%	0.08425	-1.36%	0.0060	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.085486	-0.41%	0.08541	-0.50%	0.0101	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.089822	-0.47%	0.085835	-4.89%	0.0497	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.091676	-0.48%	0.09025	-2.03%	0.0143	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.091304	-0.45%	0.09212	+0.44%	0.0024	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.09092	-0.45%	0.09172	+0.42%	0.0069	✗	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.089094	-0.42%	0.091335	+2.08%	0.0350	✗	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.087043	-0.39%	0.08947	+2.39%	0.0309	✗	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.094229	-0.52%	0.08738	-7.75%	0.1199	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.101592	-0.58%	0.094725	-7.30%	0.0468	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.097801	-0.51%	0.102185	+3.95%	0.0444	✗	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.103313	-0.62%	0.098305	-5.44%	0.0444	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.110338	-0.97%	0.10396	-6.70%	0.0744	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.086641	-0.48%	0.11142	+27.99%	0.2386	✗	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.084686	-0.42%	0.087055	+2.37%	0.0419	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.094333	-0.55%	0.08504	-10.34%	0.0952	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.091859	-0.54%	0.09485	+2.70%	0.0262	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.091508	-0.56%	0.09236	+0.37%	0.0022	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.094371	-0.62%	0.09202	-3.10%	0.0332	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.100437	-0.78%	0.09496	-6.19%	0.0714	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.127812	-2.08%	0.101225	-22.45%	0.2614	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.098783	-1.41%	0.13053	+30.27%	0.2565	✗	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.080814	-0.53%	0.1002	+23.33%	0.2454	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.080115	-0.66%	0.081245	+0.74%	0.0040	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.074531	-0.46%	0.08065	+7.71%	0.0858	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.066854	-0.23%	0.074875	+11.74%	0.1143	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.070905	-0.26%	0.06701	-5.74%	0.0610	✓	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.082988	-0.52%	0.07109	-14.78%	0.1375	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.098442	-1.05%	0.08342	-16.15%	0.1470	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.093546	-0.74%	0.09949	+5.57%	0.0768	✗	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.092954	-0.87%	0.094245	+0.51%	0.0055	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.087814	-0.72%	0.09377	+6.01%	0.0776	✗	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.096653	-1.21%	0.08845	-9.59%	0.0982	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.094074	-1.32%	0.097835	+2.63%	0.0316	✗	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.077257	-0.69%	0.09533	+22.54%	0.2344	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.075575	-0.74%	0.077795	+2.18%	0.0471	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.077725	-1.08%	0.076135	-3.11%	0.0106	✓	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.071068	-0.67%	0.078575	+9.82%	0.0920	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.068666	-0.63%	0.07155	+3.55%	0.0222	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.074193	-0.97%	0.0691	-7.77%	0.0851	✓	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.072382	-1.01%	0.07492	+2.46%	0.0349	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.062561	-0.48%	0.07312	+16.32%	0.1270	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.06431	-0.53%	0.06286	-2.77%	0.0195	✓	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.064395	-0.53%	0.06465	-0.14%	0.0232	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.069601	-0.75%	0.06474	-7.69%	0.0691	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.066099	-0.45%	0.07013	+5.62%	0.0268	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.062024	-0.19%	0.0664	+6.86%	0.0706	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.062859	-0.27%	0.06214	-1.41%	0.0277	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.06969	-0.66%	0.06303	-10.15%	0.0973	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.064719	-0.40%	0.07015	+7.96%	0.1239	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.070605	-0.91%	0.06498	-8.80%	0.0125	✓	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.070635	-1.00%	0.07125	-0.14%	0.0437	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.075867	-1.44%	0.07135	-7.31%	0.0584	✓	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.07501	-1.76%	0.076975	+0.82%	0.0198	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.06082	-0.12%	0.07635	+25.39%	0.2297	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.062104	-0.18%	0.06089	-2.13%	0.0072	✓	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.062073	-0.16%	0.062215	+0.06%	0.0266	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.068346	-0.59%	0.062175	-9.57%	0.0737	✓	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.06821	-0.42%	0.068755	+0.37%	0.0040	✓	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.07171	-0.47%	0.0685	-4.93%	0.0506	✓	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.07091	-0.27%	0.07205	+1.34%	0.0018	✓	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.083036	-1.15%	0.0711	-15.36%	0.1313	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.07614	-0.67%	0.084	+9.59%	0.0974	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.070615	-0.22%	0.07665	+8.31%	0.0742	✗	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.071361	-0.18%	0.07077	-1.01%	0.0064	✓	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.070356	-0.12%	0.07149	+1.49%	0.0212	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.075604	-0.25%	0.07044	-7.06%	0.0633	✓	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.074786	-0.17%	0.07579	+1.17%	0.0238	✗	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.086548	-0.43%	0.07491	-13.82%	0.1289	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.088422	-0.46%	0.08692	-2.15%	0.0316	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.109317	-1.09%	0.08883	-19.63%	0.2023	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.10375	-0.94%	0.11052	+5.53%	0.0701	✗	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.097338	-0.94%	0.10473	+6.58%	0.0762	✗	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.095438	-0.86%	0.09826	+2.07%	0.0198	✗	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.089461	-0.69%	0.09627	+6.87%	0.0705	✗	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.09128	-0.73%	0.09008	-2.04%	0.0143	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.087561	-0.55%	0.091955	+4.44%	0.0597	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.090021	-0.55%	0.088045	-2.73%	0.0262	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.094146	-0.61%	0.09052	-4.43%	0.0476	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.098278	-0.69%	0.09472	-4.28%	0.0480	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.115307	-0.93%	0.09896	-14.98%	0.1520	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.1093	-0.80%	0.11639	+5.64%	0.0595	✗	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.111443	-0.82%	0.11018	-1.95%	0.0275	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.128457	-1.10%	0.11237	-13.49%	0.1388	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.136729	-1.26%	0.12989	-6.20%	0.0439	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.134927	-1.49%	0.13847	+1.10%	0.0395	✗	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.132208	-1.20%	0.136965	+2.36%	0.0521	✗	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.132868	-1.34%	0.13381	-0.64%	0.0060	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.121316	-1.12%	0.134675	+9.77%	0.1020	✗	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.133556	-1.67%	0.122685	-9.67%	0.0744	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.113479	-1.10%	0.13582	+18.37%	0.1788	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.127629	-2.31%	0.11474	-12.18%	0.1305	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.111312	-2.32%	0.13065	+14.65%	0.1538	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.085463	-0.85%	0.11396	+32.20%	0.2605	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.090388	-0.91%	0.0862	-5.50%	0.0219	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.120762	-2.02%	0.09122	-25.99%	0.2627	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.157038	-5.48%	0.12325	-25.82%	0.2677	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.084414	-1.31%	0.16615	+94.25%	0.6728	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.074452	-0.92%	0.085535	+13.83%	0.1300	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.065227	-0.72%	0.075145	+14.38%	0.1451	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.059105	-0.67%	0.0657	+10.41%	0.0549	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.054443	-0.44%	0.059505	+8.81%	0.1213	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.053638	-0.40%	0.054685	+1.54%	0.0181	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.053376	-0.40%	0.053855	+0.49%	0.0076	✓	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.061659	-0.45%	0.05359	-13.48%	0.1502	✓	1.00