BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s0

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 594

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +30d

assessed

168

of 198 predictions shown

direction hit

56.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2647

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0438

actual -0.0915

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.054285	0.054675	+0.72%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.054325	0.054799	+0.87%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.050301	+0.35%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.047002	-0.77%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048492	-0.70%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.052469	-1.09%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.055234	-1.37%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044292	-0.69%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.042805	-2.30%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047326	-1.13%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.054107	-1.10%	–	pending	–	–	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.065649	-0.88%	–	pending	–	–	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.0672	-1.24%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.067351	-1.71%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.064784	-1.79%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.066495	-1.47%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.066788	-0.51%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.062091	-0.13%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.06265	+0.38%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.06199	+0.19%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.063302	+0.73%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.065479	+0.39%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.066505	+0.52%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.067523	+0.93%	–	pending	–	–	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.068029	+1.25%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.071792	+1.17%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.072457	+1.86%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.070469	+1.81%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.068574	+2.52%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.065881	+3.50%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.070927	+2.90%	0.054285	-21.24%	0.2543	✗	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.070386	+3.24%	0.054325	-20.32%	0.2382	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.06797	+2.76%	0.050125	-24.22%	0.3188	✗	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.06753	+3.08%	0.047365	-27.70%	0.3596	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.067001	+2.79%	0.048835	-25.08%	0.3249	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.063357	+1.44%	0.05305	-15.07%	0.2139	✗	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.062441	+1.66%	0.056	-8.82%	0.1479	✗	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.063728	+0.84%	0.0446	-29.43%	0.3903	✗	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.063913	+2.02%	0.043815	-30.06%	0.3950	✗	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.062687	+1.39%	0.047865	-22.59%	0.3025	✗	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.064714	+1.07%	0.05471	-14.56%	0.1920	✗	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.065049	+1.25%	0.066235	+3.10%	0.0176	✗	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.061449	+1.42%	0.068045	+12.30%	0.0699	✓	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.063288	+2.19%	0.068525	+10.65%	0.0588	✓	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.068297	+0.93%	0.065965	-2.52%	0.0554	✗	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.06833	+1.32%	0.06749	+0.07%	0.0391	✗	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.068534	+1.67%	0.06713	-0.41%	0.0531	✗	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.06969	+1.36%	0.06217	-9.58%	0.1523	✗	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.069932	+1.86%	0.062415	-9.09%	0.1606	✗	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.071877	+3.23%	0.06187	-11.14%	0.1733	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.067013	-0.38%	0.06284	-6.59%	0.1116	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.067292	-0.26%	0.065225	-3.32%	0.0817	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.069528	+1.69%	0.06616	-3.24%	0.0761	✗	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.06857	+1.08%	0.0669	-1.39%	0.0644	✗	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.071989	+1.97%	0.06719	-4.83%	0.1023	✗	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.073121	+2.30%	0.07096	-0.73%	0.0728	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.0773	+5.51%	0.071135	-2.90%	0.1092	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.075719	+4.85%	0.069215	-4.15%	0.1209	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.071973	+4.29%	0.06689	-3.07%	0.1092	✗	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.075649	+4.67%	0.06365	-11.93%	0.2049	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.076036	+3.52%	0.068925	-6.16%	0.1540	✗	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.076702	+3.04%	0.06818	-8.41%	0.1813	✗	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.093376	+2.69%	0.066145	-27.26%	0.3611	✗	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.082886	-1.53%	0.06551	-22.17%	0.2755	✓	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.07721	-4.38%	0.06518	-19.28%	0.2419	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.073238	-7.26%	0.06246	-20.91%	0.2429	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.071554	-7.58%	0.06142	-20.67%	0.2409	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.071343	-8.52%	0.0632	-18.96%	0.2234	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.073054	-8.42%	0.062645	-21.47%	0.2724	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.069244	-7.79%	0.06183	-17.66%	0.2246	✓	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.069557	-7.72%	0.06403	-15.05%	0.1923	✓	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.07076	-7.55%	0.064245	-16.06%	0.2274	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.071031	-7.34%	0.06059	-20.96%	0.2768	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.071827	-7.13%	0.06193	-19.93%	0.2945	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.0694	-6.29%	0.06767	-8.62%	0.1613	✓	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.072476	-6.14%	0.06744	-12.66%	0.2122	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.07309	-6.16%	0.067405	-13.46%	0.2338	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.078306	-7.04%	0.068755	-18.38%	0.2966	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.075172	-6.63%	0.068655	-14.72%	0.2519	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.071858	-6.32%	0.06963	-9.23%	0.2039	✓	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.071621	-6.35%	0.06727	-12.04%	0.2039	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.071194	-6.16%	0.067465	-11.08%	0.1897	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.070512	-6.23%	0.068375	-9.07%	0.1771	✓	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.074043	-6.32%	0.06784	-14.17%	0.2252	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.075098	-5.55%	0.0706	-11.21%	0.1905	✓	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.075806	-5.47%	0.07148	-10.87%	0.1881	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.075254	-4.99%	0.07326	-7.51%	0.1663	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.075383	-4.96%	0.072215	-8.95%	0.1764	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.083208	-4.40%	0.06901	-20.71%	0.2885	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.081097	-4.12%	0.072275	-14.55%	0.2218	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.08114	-3.88%	0.07345	-12.99%	0.1986	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.074009	-2.53%	0.07444	-1.96%	0.0923	✓	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.082256	-2.37%	0.09093	+7.93%	0.0045	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.083659	-2.05%	0.084175	-1.45%	0.0477	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.084008	-2.13%	0.080745	-5.93%	0.0679	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.087992	-2.50%	0.078975	-12.49%	0.1081	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.089798	-2.52%	0.07742	-15.96%	0.1445	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.08957	-2.34%	0.077985	-14.97%	0.1251	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.089245	-2.29%	0.07977	-12.66%	0.1009	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.087621	-2.07%	0.07509	-16.07%	0.1355	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.0857	-1.92%	0.075375	-13.74%	0.1085	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.092058	-2.82%	0.07654	-19.20%	0.2036	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.099084	-3.03%	0.07666	-24.98%	0.2534	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.095597	-2.75%	0.07734	-21.33%	0.2142	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.100603	-3.23%	0.074055	-28.77%	0.3169	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.106821	-4.13%	0.077215	-30.70%	0.3514	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.0848	-2.59%	0.07789	-10.53%	0.1212	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.082848	-2.58%	0.08424	-0.94%	0.0044	✓	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.091879	-3.13%	0.08051	-15.12%	0.1395	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.089603	-2.98%	0.07671	-16.94%	0.1619	✓	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.089266	-2.99%	0.07648	-16.89%	0.1600	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.091895	-3.23%	0.07587	-20.10%	0.2054	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.097375	-3.80%	0.075195	-25.71%	0.2774	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.121764	-6.72%	0.07904	-39.45%	0.4845	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.095253	-4.94%	0.079515	-20.64%	0.2727	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.078856	-2.94%	0.080195	-1.29%	0.0493	✓	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.078048	-3.23%	0.07921	-1.79%	0.0470	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.072695	-2.91%	0.079315	+5.93%	0.0332	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.065263	-2.61%	0.08704	+29.89%	0.2124	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.069138	-2.75%	0.08458	+18.98%	0.1351	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.080203	-3.86%	0.084415	+1.19%	0.0108	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.093923	-5.60%	0.07593	-23.68%	0.2388	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.089354	-5.19%	0.08425	-10.61%	0.0830	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.088681	-5.43%	0.08541	-8.92%	0.0748	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.083814	-5.24%	0.085835	-2.96%	0.0120	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.091477	-6.50%	0.09025	-7.75%	0.0288	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.088964	-6.68%	0.09212	-3.37%	0.0106	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.073802	-5.13%	0.09172	+17.90%	0.2258	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.07186	-5.62%	0.091335	+19.96%	0.2686	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.07328	-6.74%	0.08947	+13.87%	0.2236	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.06748	-5.69%	0.08738	+22.12%	0.2692	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.065316	-5.48%	0.094725	+37.08%	0.4047	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.069836	-6.79%	0.102185	+36.39%	0.3774	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.067957	-7.06%	0.098305	+34.44%	0.3659	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.059836	-4.81%	0.10396	+65.38%	0.5159	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.061162	-5.40%	0.11142	+72.34%	0.5794	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.060866	-5.98%	0.087055	+34.47%	0.3693	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.065279	-6.92%	0.08504	+21.26%	0.2642	✗	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.062533	-5.82%	0.09485	+42.85%	0.3751	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.058686	-5.56%	0.09236	+48.63%	0.4197	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.058766	-6.76%	0.09202	+45.99%	0.4584	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.064478	-8.09%	0.09496	+35.37%	0.4080	✗	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.059465	-8.49%	0.101225	+55.78%	0.6192	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.063876	-10.35%	0.13053	+83.20%	0.8957	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.063422	-11.11%	0.1002	+40.43%	0.7141	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.067866	-11.83%	0.081245	+5.55%	0.4055	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.066962	-12.30%	0.08065	+5.63%	0.4177	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.054987	-9.69%	0.074875	+22.97%	0.5444	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.056094	-9.84%	0.06701	+7.71%	0.4255	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.056177	-9.65%	0.07109	+14.34%	0.5244	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.061867	-10.02%	0.08342	+21.33%	0.5646	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.062125	-9.31%	0.09949	+45.24%	0.7023	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.065562	-9.00%	0.094245	+30.80%	0.5671	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.065026	-8.54%	0.09377	+31.88%	0.5639	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.0759	-9.64%	0.08845	+5.30%	0.3168	✗	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.070157	-8.47%	0.097835	+27.64%	0.5084	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.065496	-7.45%	0.09533	+34.70%	0.5443	✗	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.066534	-6.93%	0.077795	+8.82%	0.3067	✗	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.065798	-6.59%	0.076135	+8.08%	0.2894	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.071035	-6.27%	0.078575	+3.67%	0.2363	✗	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.070753	-5.55%	0.07155	-4.49%	0.1708	✗	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.082515	-5.07%	0.0691	-20.50%	0.0364	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.08351	-5.99%	0.07492	-15.66%	0.0353	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.102636	-7.13%	0.07312	-33.84%	0.2570	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.098388	-6.06%	0.06286	-39.98%	0.3197	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.093122	-5.23%	0.06465	-34.21%	0.2175	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.090368	-6.13%	0.06474	-32.75%	0.2125	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.084529	-6.16%	0.07013	-22.15%	0.0720	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.086094	-6.37%	0.0664	-27.79%	0.1276	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.083582	-5.07%	0.06214	-29.42%	0.1216	✓	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.085873	-5.13%	0.06303	-30.37%	0.1648	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.089383	-5.63%	0.07015	-25.94%	0.1016	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.092645	-6.38%	0.06498	-34.34%	0.2426	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.108559	-6.73%	0.07125	-38.78%	0.3627	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.102922	-6.59%	0.07135	-35.24%	0.3301	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.104167	-7.30%	0.076975	-31.50%	0.2807	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.119374	-8.10%	0.07635	-41.22%	0.4250	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.127278	-8.08%	0.06089	-56.03%	0.6999	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.126879	-7.36%	0.062215	-54.58%	0.6724	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.125438	-6.26%	0.062175	-53.53%	0.6650	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.125259	-6.99%	0.068755	-48.95%	0.5946	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.115081	-6.20%	0.0685	-44.17%	0.5125	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.126893	-6.57%	0.07205	-46.95%	0.5449	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.109228	-4.80%	0.0711	-38.03%	0.3934	✓	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.120417	-7.83%	0.084	-35.71%	0.3757	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.105894	-7.08%	0.07665	-32.74%	0.3442	✓	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.081805	-5.10%	0.07077	-17.90%	0.1840	✓	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.08756	-4.01%	0.07149	-21.63%	0.2186	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.115218	-6.52%	0.07044	-42.85%	0.4961	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.142723	-14.10%	0.07579	-54.38%	0.6713	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.08162	-4.58%	0.07491	-12.42%	0.1407	✓	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.072225	-3.89%	0.08692	+15.67%	0.0963	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.063826	-2.85%	0.08883	+35.21%	0.2675	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.056484	-5.08%	0.11052	+85.73%	0.5424	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.05273	-3.57%	0.10473	+91.52%	0.5744	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.052006	-3.43%	0.09826	+82.45%	0.5175	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.051507	-3.89%	0.09627	+79.64%	0.5091	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.059731	-3.57%	0.09008	+45.43%	0.2904	✗	1.00