BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s0

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

196

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

53.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0601

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0035

actual -0.0012

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.050772	-0.17%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.050036	-0.18%	0.05086	+1.47%	0.0188	✗	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.047318	-0.10%	0.050125	+5.83%	0.0464	✗	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.04879	-0.09%	0.047365	-3.01%	0.0279	✓	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.052887	-0.31%	0.048835	-7.95%	0.0861	✓	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.055586	-0.74%	0.05305	-5.27%	0.0455	✓	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044601	+0.00%	0.056	+25.56%	0.2345	✓	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043828	+0.03%	0.0446	+1.79%	0.0113	✓	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047893	+0.06%	0.043815	-8.46%	0.0734	✗	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.054727	+0.03%	0.047865	-12.51%	0.1486	✗	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.066183	-0.08%	0.05471	-17.40%	0.1753	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.067967	-0.12%	0.066235	-2.66%	0.0321	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.06842	-0.15%	0.068045	-0.70%	0.0085	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.065828	-0.21%	0.068525	+3.88%	0.0330	✗	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.067286	-0.30%	0.065965	-2.26%	0.0072	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.066916	-0.32%	0.06749	+0.54%	0.0291	✗	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.062163	-0.01%	0.06713	+7.98%	0.0787	✗	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.062427	+0.02%	0.06217	-0.39%	0.0029	✓	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.061877	+0.01%	0.062415	+0.88%	0.0078	✗	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.062857	+0.03%	0.06187	-1.54%	0.0181	✗	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.065231	+0.01%	0.06284	-3.66%	0.0341	✗	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.066158	-0.00%	0.065225	-1.41%	0.0260	✓	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.066875	-0.04%	0.06616	-1.11%	0.0101	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.067191	+0.00%	0.0669	-0.43%	0.0060	✗	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.070868	-0.13%	0.06719	-5.31%	0.0469	✓	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.070933	-0.28%	0.07096	-0.25%	0.0001	✓	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.069188	-0.04%	0.071135	+2.77%	0.0258	✗	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.066904	+0.02%	0.069215	+3.48%	0.0357	✓	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063714	+0.10%	0.06689	+5.09%	0.0486	✓	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.068919	-0.01%	0.06365	-7.65%	0.0675	✓	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.06816	-0.03%	0.068925	+1.09%	0.0143	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.066114	-0.05%	0.06818	+3.08%	0.0117	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.065476	-0.05%	0.066145	+0.97%	0.0108	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.065188	+0.01%	0.06551	+0.51%	0.0022	✓	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.062485	+0.04%	0.06518	+4.35%	0.0094	✓	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.061447	+0.04%	0.06246	+1.69%	0.0148	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.063208	+0.01%	0.06142	-2.82%	0.0317	✗	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062703	+0.09%	0.0632	+0.89%	0.0217	✓	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061893	+0.10%	0.062645	+1.32%	0.0047	✓	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.064073	+0.07%	0.06183	-3.44%	0.0331	✗	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.064247	+0.00%	0.06403	-0.33%	0.0037	✗	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060706	+0.19%	0.064245	+6.03%	0.0532	✓	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.062032	+0.16%	0.06059	-2.16%	0.0147	✗	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.067731	+0.09%	0.06193	-8.48%	0.0885	✗	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.067494	+0.08%	0.06767	+0.34%	0.0068	✓	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.06747	+0.10%	0.06744	+0.05%	0.0076	✓	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.068804	+0.07%	0.067405	-1.96%	0.0239	✗	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.068712	+0.08%	0.068755	+0.15%	0.0005	✓	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.06971	+0.11%	0.068655	-1.40%	0.0043	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.067278	+0.01%	0.06963	+3.51%	0.0078	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.067489	+0.04%	0.06727	-0.29%	0.0026	✗	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.068428	+0.08%	0.067465	-1.33%	0.0078	✗	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.067878	+0.06%	0.068375	+0.79%	0.0011	✓	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.070651	+0.07%	0.06784	-3.91%	0.0368	✗	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071536	+0.08%	0.0706	-1.23%	0.0158	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.073349	+0.12%	0.07148	-2.43%	0.0098	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.072295	+0.11%	0.07326	+1.45%	0.0054	✓	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.069118	+0.16%	0.072215	+4.64%	0.0407	✓	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.072395	+0.17%	0.06901	-4.52%	0.0451	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.073559	+0.15%	0.072275	-1.60%	0.0262	✗	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.07454	+0.13%	0.07345	-1.33%	0.0195	✗	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.090751	-0.20%	0.07444	-18.13%	0.1906	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.08407	-0.12%	0.09093	+8.02%	0.0519	✗	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.080486	-0.32%	0.084175	+4.25%	0.0203	✗	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.078505	-0.60%	0.080745	+2.24%	0.0067	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.076976	-0.57%	0.078975	+2.01%	0.0240	✗	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.077412	-0.74%	0.07742	-0.72%	0.0142	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.079036	-0.92%	0.077985	-2.24%	0.0118	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.074736	-0.47%	0.07977	+6.23%	0.0648	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.075035	-0.45%	0.07509	-0.38%	0.0047	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.076212	-0.43%	0.075375	-1.52%	0.0112	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.076351	-0.40%	0.07654	-0.16%	0.0037	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.076983	-0.46%	0.07666	-0.88%	0.0001	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.07385	-0.28%	0.07734	+4.44%	0.0566	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.077005	-0.27%	0.074055	-4.09%	0.0384	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.077675	-0.28%	0.077215	-0.87%	0.0061	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.0839	-0.40%	0.07789	-7.54%	0.0818	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.080209	-0.37%	0.08424	+4.63%	0.0530	✗	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.076534	-0.23%	0.08051	+4.95%	0.0444	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.076312	-0.22%	0.07671	+0.30%	0.0014	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.075722	-0.19%	0.07648	+0.80%	0.0103	✗	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.075067	-0.17%	0.07587	+0.90%	0.0030	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.078842	-0.25%	0.075195	-4.86%	0.0467	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.079323	-0.24%	0.07904	-0.60%	0.0166	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.079992	-0.25%	0.079515	-0.85%	0.0144	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.079066	-0.18%	0.080195	+1.24%	0.0137	✗	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.079182	-0.17%	0.07921	-0.13%	0.0011	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.086863	-0.20%	0.079315	-8.88%	0.0768	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.084426	-0.18%	0.08704	+2.91%	0.0221	✗	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.084257	-0.19%	0.08458	+0.20%	0.0021	✗	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.075895	-0.05%	0.084415	+11.17%	0.1151	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.084187	-0.07%	0.07593	-9.88%	0.0943	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.085368	-0.05%	0.08425	-1.36%	0.0094	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.085777	-0.07%	0.08541	-0.50%	0.0135	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.090147	-0.11%	0.085835	-4.89%	0.0533	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.092008	-0.12%	0.09025	-2.03%	0.0179	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.091608	-0.12%	0.09212	+0.44%	0.0057	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.091197	-0.15%	0.09172	+0.42%	0.0039	✗	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.08937	-0.11%	0.091335	+2.08%	0.0319	✗	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.087315	-0.07%	0.08947	+2.39%	0.0278	✗	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.094548	-0.19%	0.08738	-7.75%	0.1233	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.101947	-0.23%	0.094725	-7.30%	0.0503	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.098141	-0.17%	0.102185	+3.95%	0.0409	✗	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.103677	-0.27%	0.098305	-5.44%	0.0480	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.110537	-0.79%	0.10396	-6.70%	0.0762	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.086859	-0.23%	0.11142	+27.99%	0.2361	✗	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.084938	-0.12%	0.087055	+2.37%	0.0389	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.094663	-0.20%	0.08504	-10.34%	0.0987	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.092167	-0.21%	0.09485	+2.70%	0.0229	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.09181	-0.23%	0.09236	+0.37%	0.0011	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.094681	-0.29%	0.09202	-3.10%	0.0365	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.100841	-0.38%	0.09496	-6.19%	0.0754	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.12776	-2.12%	0.101225	-22.45%	0.2610	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.098809	-1.39%	0.13053	+30.27%	0.2562	✗	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.081007	-0.29%	0.1002	+23.33%	0.2430	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.080214	-0.54%	0.081245	+0.74%	0.0028	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.074585	-0.39%	0.08065	+7.71%	0.0850	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.066885	-0.19%	0.074875	+11.74%	0.1139	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.070993	-0.14%	0.06701	-5.74%	0.0622	✓	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.08322	-0.24%	0.07109	-14.78%	0.1403	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.098619	-0.88%	0.08342	-16.15%	0.1488	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.093863	-0.40%	0.09949	+5.57%	0.0734	✗	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.093206	-0.60%	0.094245	+0.51%	0.0028	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.088109	-0.39%	0.09377	+6.01%	0.0742	✗	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.096921	-0.93%	0.08845	-9.59%	0.1010	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.094244	-1.14%	0.097835	+2.63%	0.0298	✗	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.077445	-0.45%	0.09533	+22.54%	0.2320	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.07576	-0.49%	0.077795	+2.18%	0.0447	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.077754	-1.05%	0.076135	-3.11%	0.0110	✓	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.071197	-0.49%	0.078575	+9.82%	0.0901	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.068802	-0.43%	0.07155	+3.55%	0.0203	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.074382	-0.72%	0.0691	-7.77%	0.0877	✓	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.072545	-0.79%	0.07492	+2.46%	0.0326	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.062734	-0.20%	0.07312	+16.32%	0.1243	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.064515	-0.21%	0.06286	-2.77%	0.0227	✓	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.064595	-0.22%	0.06465	-0.14%	0.0201	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.069851	-0.40%	0.06474	-7.69%	0.0727	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.066377	-0.04%	0.07013	+5.62%	0.0226	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.062254	+0.18%	0.0664	+6.86%	0.0669	✓	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.063059	+0.05%	0.06214	-1.41%	0.0245	✓	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.070023	-0.18%	0.06303	-10.15%	0.1020	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.064917	-0.10%	0.07015	+7.96%	0.1208	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.070914	-0.47%	0.06498	-8.80%	0.0169	✓	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.07096	-0.55%	0.07125	-0.14%	0.0391	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.076338	-0.83%	0.07135	-7.31%	0.0646	✓	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.075307	-1.37%	0.076975	+0.82%	0.0158	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.060786	-0.17%	0.07635	+25.39%	0.2303	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.062095	-0.19%	0.06089	-2.13%	0.0070	✓	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.062079	-0.15%	0.062215	+0.06%	0.0265	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.068503	-0.37%	0.062175	-9.57%	0.0760	✓	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.06833	-0.25%	0.068755	+0.37%	0.0022	✓	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.071889	-0.22%	0.0685	-4.93%	0.0531	✓	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.071068	-0.04%	0.07205	+1.34%	0.0041	✓	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.083436	-0.67%	0.0711	-15.36%	0.1361	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.076425	-0.29%	0.084	+9.59%	0.0937	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.070866	+0.14%	0.07665	+8.31%	0.0707	✓	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.07163	+0.20%	0.07077	-1.01%	0.0101	✗	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.070663	+0.32%	0.07149	+1.49%	0.0169	✓	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.075949	+0.21%	0.07044	-7.06%	0.0679	✗	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.075093	+0.24%	0.07579	+1.17%	0.0197	✓	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.086862	-0.07%	0.07491	-13.82%	0.1325	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.088819	-0.01%	0.08692	-2.15%	0.0361	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.109903	-0.56%	0.08883	-19.63%	0.2077	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.10426	-0.45%	0.11052	+5.53%	0.0652	✗	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.097638	-0.63%	0.10473	+6.58%	0.0731	✗	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.095702	-0.59%	0.09826	+2.07%	0.0170	✗	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.089793	-0.32%	0.09627	+6.87%	0.0668	✗	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.091626	-0.36%	0.09008	-2.04%	0.0181	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.087854	-0.22%	0.091955	+4.44%	0.0564	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.090315	-0.23%	0.088045	-2.73%	0.0294	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.09445	-0.28%	0.09052	-4.43%	0.0509	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.0986	-0.36%	0.09472	-4.28%	0.0513	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.115618	-0.66%	0.09896	-14.98%	0.1546	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.109645	-0.49%	0.11639	+5.64%	0.0563	✗	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.111822	-0.49%	0.11018	-1.95%	0.0309	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.128911	-0.75%	0.11237	-13.49%	0.1423	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.137217	-0.90%	0.12989	-6.20%	0.0474	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.13506	-1.39%	0.13847	+1.10%	0.0386	✗	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.132414	-1.04%	0.136965	+2.36%	0.0506	✗	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.133145	-1.14%	0.13381	-0.64%	0.0081	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.121715	-0.79%	0.134675	+9.77%	0.0987	✗	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.133704	-1.56%	0.122685	-9.67%	0.0755	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.113891	-0.74%	0.13582	+18.37%	0.1752	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.127956	-2.06%	0.11474	-12.18%	0.1331	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.111032	-2.57%	0.13065	+14.65%	0.1564	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.085782	-0.49%	0.11396	+32.20%	0.2568	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.090677	-0.60%	0.0862	-5.50%	0.0250	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.120955	-1.86%	0.09122	-25.99%	0.2643	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.154582	-6.96%	0.12325	-25.82%	0.2519	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.084374	-1.36%	0.16615	+94.25%	0.6733	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.074523	-0.83%	0.085535	+13.83%	0.1290	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.065157	-0.83%	0.075145	+14.38%	0.1462	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.059185	-0.54%	0.0657	+10.41%	0.0536	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.054523	-0.30%	0.059505	+8.81%	0.1198	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.053714	-0.26%	0.054685	+1.54%	0.0167	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.053451	-0.26%	0.053855	+0.49%	0.0090	✓	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.061731	-0.34%	0.05359	-13.48%	0.1514	✓	1.00