XEF

Xeffy · native · beta_5y

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 363

Track record at +7d

assessed

114

of 121 predictions shown

direction hit

50.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1821

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0263

actual -0.0467

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	0.004312	0.004219	-2.14%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-21	oos	0.004362	0.004263	-2.27%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.004242	-2.26%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.004263	-2.35%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.004204	-2.23%	–	pending	–	–	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.00441	-2.45%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.00443	-2.51%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.004463	-2.58%	0.004312	-5.88%	0.0267	✓	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.004233	-2.45%	0.004362	+0.52%	0.0342	✗	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.004085	-1.94%	0.00434	+4.19%	0.0600	✗	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.004033	-2.12%	0.004365	+5.95%	0.0795	✗	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.003952	-1.50%	0.0043	+7.15%	0.0830	✗	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.003976	-1.66%	0.004521	+11.81%	0.1283	✗	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.003981	-1.72%	0.004544	+12.18%	0.1321	✗	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.003857	-1.56%	0.004581	+16.92%	0.1723	✗	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.004082	-1.45%	0.004339	+4.75%	0.0588	✗	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.004083	-0.91%	0.004166	+1.11%	0.0200	✗	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.004047	-0.74%	0.00412	+1.05%	0.0162	✗	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.004373	-1.35%	0.004012	-9.48%	0.0903	✓	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.00379	-0.71%	0.004044	+5.94%	0.0604	✗	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.004865	-2.46%	0.004051	-18.79%	0.1878	✓	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.004889	-2.56%	0.003918	-21.90%	0.2277	✓	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.004857	-3.12%	0.004142	-17.37%	0.1609	✓	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.004195	-1.70%	0.00412	-3.46%	0.0055	✓	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.004437	-2.31%	0.004078	-10.21%	0.0700	✓	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.004364	-2.03%	0.004432	-0.50%	0.0251	✗	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.004508	-2.35%	0.003817	-17.32%	0.1649	✓	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.004601	-2.69%	0.004988	+5.50%	0.0828	✗	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.004916	-3.90%	0.005017	-1.93%	0.0226	✓	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.004328	-2.42%	0.005013	+13.01%	0.1427	✗	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.004267	-2.00%	0.004268	-1.98%	0.0096	✓	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.004254	-1.90%	0.004541	+4.73%	0.0555	✗	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.004261	-2.55%	0.004455	+1.88%	0.0588	✗	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.00443	-2.92%	0.004617	+1.17%	0.0555	✗	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.004629	-3.45%	0.004728	-1.38%	0.0342	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.005139	-5.70%	0.005116	-6.12%	0.0136	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.00426	-1.94%	0.004436	+2.11%	0.0589	✗	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.003817	-0.52%	0.004354	+13.47%	0.1875	✗	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.003882	+0.21%	0.004336	+11.93%	0.1416	✓	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003672	+0.74%	0.004372	+19.94%	0.1878	✓	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.003113	+1.88%	0.004563	+49.34%	0.3922	✓	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.00395	+1.69%	0.004794	+23.43%	0.2031	✓	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.004025	+1.41%	0.005449	+37.31%	0.3026	✓	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.004077	+1.69%	0.004344	+8.34%	0.0578	✓	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.004933	+0.66%	0.003837	-21.71%	0.2597	✗	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.004873	+0.78%	0.003874	-19.87%	0.2318	✗	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.004775	+1.22%	0.003645	-22.73%	0.2789	✗	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.004609	+1.75%	0.003056	-32.54%	0.4176	✗	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.004832	+1.87%	0.003884	-18.12%	0.2249	✗	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.005164	+1.93%	0.003968	-21.67%	0.2780	✗	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.005044	+0.57%	0.00401	-20.06%	0.2258	✗	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.005019	+0.53%	0.004901	-1.83%	0.0197	✗	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.004706	+0.79%	0.004835	+3.54%	0.0287	✓	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.005074	+0.54%	0.004718	-6.51%	0.0647	✗	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005133	+0.55%	0.004529	-11.27%	0.1202	✗	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.005218	+0.36%	0.004744	-8.76%	0.0898	✗	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.005415	+0.56%	0.005066	-5.91%	0.0632	✗	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.005425	+0.14%	0.005016	-7.41%	0.0846	✗	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.005236	+0.10%	0.004993	-4.55%	0.0517	✗	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.005279	+0.06%	0.004669	-11.50%	0.1243	✗	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.005168	-0.17%	0.005046	-2.52%	0.0240	✓	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.005071	-0.31%	0.005104	+0.35%	0.0112	✗	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.004926	-0.01%	0.005199	+5.53%	0.0522	✗	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.005695	-1.47%	0.005385	-6.84%	0.0673	✓	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.005629	-2.09%	0.005417	-5.76%	0.0487	✓	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.005668	-2.61%	0.005231	-10.11%	0.0977	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.005731	-2.71%	0.005276	-10.42%	0.1007	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.00581	-3.00%	0.005177	-13.58%	0.1360	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.005812	-3.01%	0.005087	-15.11%	0.1532	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.005748	-2.84%	0.004926	-16.73%	0.1752	✓	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.005764	-2.79%	0.00578	-2.51%	0.0117	✓	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.005899	-2.79%	0.005749	-5.27%	0.0350	✓	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.006275	-3.08%	0.00582	-10.11%	0.0771	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.006566	-3.41%	0.00589	-13.35%	0.1093	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.006545	-3.50%	0.00599	-11.68%	0.0852	✓	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.006248	-3.21%	0.005993	-7.16%	0.0385	✓	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.006691	-3.63%	0.005916	-14.78%	0.1196	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.00681	-3.76%	0.005929	-16.21%	0.1370	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.006996	-4.43%	0.006068	-17.10%	0.1402	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.006304	-4.03%	0.006474	-1.44%	0.0268	✓	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.006122	-4.09%	0.006798	+6.50%	0.1048	✗	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.005832	-3.91%	0.006782	+11.74%	0.1513	✗	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.005725	-3.88%	0.006455	+8.37%	0.1219	✗	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.005768	-4.01%	0.006942	+15.52%	0.1871	✗	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.005735	-4.09%	0.007076	+18.34%	0.2102	✗	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.005786	-4.04%	0.00732	+21.41%	0.2354	✗	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.005631	-3.81%	0.006568	+12.21%	0.1541	✗	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.005883	-3.90%	0.006383	+4.27%	0.0815	✗	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.006052	-4.48%	0.00607	-4.21%	0.0016	✓	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.006031	-4.48%	0.005956	-5.66%	0.0145	✓	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.005987	-4.63%	0.006009	-4.27%	0.0018	✓	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.00591	-4.84%	0.005979	-3.72%	0.0114	✓	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.005821	-5.06%	0.006029	-1.67%	0.0353	✓	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.005984	-5.88%	0.005854	-7.92%	0.0220	✓	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.00588	-5.93%	0.006121	-2.07%	0.0382	✓	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.005529	-4.69%	0.006336	+9.22%	0.1381	✗	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.005511	-4.99%	0.006314	+8.84%	0.1345	✗	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.005507	-5.03%	0.006277	+8.26%	0.1316	✗	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.005714	-5.41%	0.006211	+2.81%	0.0879	✗	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.005724	-6.27%	0.006132	+0.41%	0.0732	✗	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.005974	-7.39%	0.006357	-1.44%	0.0390	✓	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.005174	-4.89%	0.00625	+14.89%	0.1427	✗	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.005507	-6.07%	0.005801	-1.05%	0.0375	✓	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.005135	-6.35%	0.005801	+5.80%	0.1060	✗	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.004699	-6.03%	0.005798	+15.97%	0.2140	✗	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.005161	-7.79%	0.006041	+7.93%	0.1481	✗	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.003907	-4.27%	0.006107	+49.61%	0.4075	✗	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.003737	-3.27%	0.00645	+66.95%	0.5198	✗	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.003218	-0.69%	0.00544	+67.91%	0.5527	✗	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.003254	+0.37%	0.005863	+80.84%	0.5863	✓	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.003007	+0.24%	0.005483	+82.76%	0.5898	✓	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.001818	-25.56%	0.005	+104.73%	0.9863	✗	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.006399	-3.41%	0.005597	-15.51%	0.1610	✓	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.006989	-2.78%	0.004082	-43.22%	0.5750	✓	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.006787	-2.10%	0.003864	-44.27%	0.6423	✓	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.007704	-2.64%	0.00324	-59.06%	0.9281	✓	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.008537	-2.82%	0.003242	-63.10%	1.0351	✓	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.00874	-2.80%	0.003	-66.64%	1.1206	✓	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.008917	-2.75%	0.002442	-73.37%	1.3362	✓	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.009067	-2.65%	0.006625	-28.87%	0.3432	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.010154	-2.86%	0.007189	-31.22%	0.3284	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.