XEF

Xeffy · native · beta_5y

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 363

Track record at +1d

assessed

120

of 121 predictions shown

direction hit

51.7%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0625

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0086

actual -0.0077

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.004312	0.004288	-0.54%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-21	oos	0.004312	0.004291	-0.47%	0.004312	+0.00%	0.0055	✗	-0.34
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.004318	-0.52%	0.004312	-0.66%	0.0031	✓	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.004341	-0.55%	0.00434	-0.57%	0.0044	✓	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.004276	-0.55%	0.004365	+1.53%	0.0200	✗	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.004493	-0.63%	0.0043	-4.90%	0.0416	✓	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.004514	-0.67%	0.004521	-0.51%	0.0012	✓	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.004549	-0.71%	0.004544	-0.80%	0.0033	✓	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.004307	-0.74%	0.004581	+5.57%	0.0638	✗	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.004138	-0.67%	0.004339	+4.17%	0.0422	✗	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.004089	-0.77%	0.004166	+1.10%	0.0233	✗	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.003986	-0.67%	0.00412	+2.69%	0.0318	✗	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.004014	-0.73%	0.004012	-0.77%	0.0003	✓	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.004019	-0.78%	0.004044	-0.18%	0.0061	✓	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.003886	-0.82%	0.004051	+3.39%	0.0421	✗	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.004113	-0.72%	0.003918	-5.42%	0.0506	✓	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.004097	-0.56%	0.004142	+0.54%	0.0110	✗	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.004057	-0.51%	0.00412	+1.04%	0.0154	✗	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.004409	-0.52%	0.004078	-8.01%	0.0794	✓	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.003798	-0.50%	0.004432	+16.13%	0.1587	✗	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.004956	-0.65%	0.003817	-23.48%	0.2605	✓	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.004985	-0.64%	0.004988	-0.58%	0.0000	✓	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.004974	-0.77%	0.005017	+0.08%	0.0168	✗	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.004245	-0.54%	0.005013	+17.46%	0.1658	✗	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.004514	-0.60%	0.004268	-6.02%	0.0550	✓	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.004432	-0.51%	0.004541	+1.95%	0.0195	✗	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.004593	-0.52%	0.004455	-3.51%	0.0303	✓	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.004703	-0.54%	0.004617	-2.36%	0.0168	✓	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.005079	-0.72%	0.004728	-7.58%	0.0731	✓	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.004414	-0.48%	0.005116	+15.33%	0.1475	✗	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.004337	-0.38%	0.004436	+1.88%	0.0155	✗	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.004321	-0.35%	0.004354	+0.40%	0.0063	✗	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.00435	-0.51%	0.004336	-0.82%	0.0202	✗	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.004539	-0.54%	0.004372	-4.19%	0.0377	✓	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.004764	-0.64%	0.004563	-4.81%	0.0414	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.005371	-1.44%	0.004794	-12.02%	0.1032	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004326	-0.43%	0.005449	+25.44%	0.2314	✗	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.003835	-0.06%	0.004344	+13.22%	0.1278	✗	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.003871	-0.07%	0.003837	-0.96%	0.0191	✓	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003648	+0.08%	0.003874	+6.28%	0.0644	✓	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.003067	+0.37%	0.003645	+19.30%	0.1716	✓	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.003886	+0.05%	0.003056	-21.33%	0.2403	✗	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.003969	+0.01%	0.003884	-2.12%	0.0199	✗	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.004011	+0.03%	0.003968	-1.03%	0.0151	✗	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.004886	-0.31%	0.00401	-18.19%	0.1982	✓	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.004821	-0.28%	0.004901	+1.38%	0.0147	✗	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.004708	-0.20%	0.004835	+2.48%	0.0234	✗	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.004525	-0.09%	0.004718	+4.16%	0.0429	✗	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.00474	-0.09%	0.004529	-4.52%	0.0450	✓	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.005062	-0.10%	0.004744	-6.37%	0.0697	✓	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.005004	-0.23%	0.005066	+1.01%	0.0275	✗	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.004984	-0.18%	0.005016	+0.46%	0.0061	✗	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.004663	-0.13%	0.004993	+6.93%	0.0644	✗	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.005038	-0.16%	0.004669	-7.47%	0.0734	✓	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005098	-0.12%	0.005046	-1.14%	0.0120	✓	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.005193	-0.12%	0.005104	-1.82%	0.0159	✓	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.005381	-0.06%	0.005199	-3.45%	0.0428	✓	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.005411	-0.11%	0.005385	-0.60%	0.0006	✓	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.005225	-0.11%	0.005417	+3.57%	0.0379	✗	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.005271	-0.11%	0.005231	-0.86%	0.0092	✓	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.005169	-0.14%	0.005276	+1.93%	0.0253	✗	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.005079	-0.16%	0.005177	+1.76%	0.0218	✗	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.004921	-0.11%	0.005087	+3.26%	0.0286	✗	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.00576	-0.35%	0.004926	-14.77%	0.1647	✓	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.005719	-0.52%	0.00578	+0.54%	0.0065	✗	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.005777	-0.73%	0.005749	-1.22%	0.0111	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.005847	-0.74%	0.00582	-1.20%	0.0049	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.005941	-0.82%	0.00589	-1.66%	0.0110	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.005944	-0.81%	0.00599	-0.04%	0.0079	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.005871	-0.77%	0.005993	+1.29%	0.0204	✗	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.005885	-0.74%	0.005916	-0.21%	0.0060	✓	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.006026	-0.70%	0.005929	-2.30%	0.0162	✓	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.006427	-0.72%	0.006068	-6.27%	0.0573	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.006745	-0.78%	0.006474	-4.76%	0.0404	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.006728	-0.80%	0.006798	+0.23%	0.0119	✗	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.006407	-0.74%	0.006782	+5.07%	0.0569	✗	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.006884	-0.83%	0.006455	-7.02%	0.0645	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.007014	-0.88%	0.006942	-1.89%	0.0114	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.007241	-1.08%	0.007076	-3.33%	0.0225	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.006503	-0.99%	0.00732	+11.45%	0.1182	✗	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.006316	-1.05%	0.006568	+2.91%	0.0393	✗	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.006007	-1.02%	0.006383	+5.16%	0.0606	✗	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.005894	-1.05%	0.00607	+1.90%	0.0301	✗	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.005944	-1.08%	0.005956	-0.88%	0.0020	✓	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.00592	-0.99%	0.006009	+0.50%	0.0150	✗	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.005969	-0.99%	0.005979	-0.82%	0.0019	✓	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.005799	-0.93%	0.006029	+3.00%	0.0389	✗	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.006065	-0.92%	0.005854	-4.37%	0.0354	✓	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.006279	-0.90%	0.006121	-3.39%	0.0266	✓	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.006253	-0.97%	0.006336	+0.36%	0.0146	✗	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.006213	-1.02%	0.006314	+0.58%	0.0163	✗	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.00615	-0.98%	0.006277	+1.07%	0.0197	✗	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.006076	-0.92%	0.006211	+1.29%	0.0221	✗	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.006288	-1.08%	0.006132	-3.54%	0.0252	✓	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.00617	-1.29%	0.006357	+1.71%	0.0317	✗	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.005735	-1.14%	0.00625	+7.74%	0.0876	✗	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.005736	-1.12%	0.005801	+0.01%	0.0110	✓	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.005729	-1.19%	0.005801	+0.04%	0.0157	✗	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.005964	-1.27%	0.005798	-4.02%	0.0278	✓	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.006031	-1.24%	0.006041	-1.07%	0.0013	✓	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.006352	-1.51%	0.006107	-5.32%	0.0352	✓	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.005352	-1.63%	0.00645	+18.56%	0.1438	✗	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.005769	-1.59%	0.00544	-7.20%	0.0353	✓	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.005391	-1.68%	0.005863	+6.93%	0.0844	✗	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.004908	-1.84%	0.005483	+9.66%	0.1164	✗	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.005457	-2.50%	0.005	-10.67%	0.1025	✓	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.003964	-2.88%	0.005597	+37.13%	0.3300	✗	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.003736	-3.30%	0.004082	+5.64%	0.1058	✗	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.003098	-4.40%	0.003864	+19.25%	0.2317	✗	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.003087	-4.78%	0.00324	-0.06%	0.0418	✓	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.002832	-5.60%	0.003242	+8.06%	0.1273	✗	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.002297	-5.96%	0.003	+22.84%	0.2582	✗	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.006568	-0.86%	0.002442	-63.13%	1.0060	✓	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.007141	-0.67%	0.006625	-7.85%	0.1001	✓	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.006883	-0.72%	0.007189	+3.69%	0.0192	✗	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.007871	-0.53%	0.006933	-12.39%	0.0993	✓	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.00874	-0.51%	0.007913	-9.92%	0.1110	✓	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.008948	-0.49%	0.008785	-2.31%	0.0107	✓	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.009126	-0.47%	0.008992	-1.93%	0.0137	✓	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.009271	-0.45%	0.009169	-1.55%	0.0161	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.010403	-0.47%	0.009313	-10.90%	0.0895	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.