XEF

Xeffy · native · beta_5y

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 363

Track record at +30d

assessed

91

of 121 predictions shown

direction hit

63.7%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2305

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0739

actual -0.0969

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	0.004312	0.004063	-5.77%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-21	oos	0.004362	0.004089	-6.26%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.004079	-6.02%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.004087	-6.37%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.004035	-6.15%	–	pending	–	–	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.004222	-6.61%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.004245	-6.58%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.004289	-6.38%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.00407	-6.21%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.003964	-4.83%	–	pending	–	–	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.003894	-5.49%	–	pending	–	–	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.003868	-3.59%	–	pending	–	–	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.003877	-4.11%	–	pending	–	–	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.003879	-4.25%	–	pending	–	–	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.003744	-4.44%	–	pending	–	–	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.003995	-3.56%	–	pending	–	–	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.004044	-1.84%	–	pending	–	–	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.004023	-1.34%	–	pending	–	–	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.004321	-2.51%	–	pending	–	–	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.003766	-1.32%	–	pending	–	–	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.004674	-6.29%	–	pending	–	–	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.004702	-6.28%	–	pending	–	–	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.004662	-6.99%	–	pending	–	–	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.004099	-3.96%	–	pending	–	–	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.004296	-5.40%	–	pending	–	–	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.004248	-4.63%	–	pending	–	–	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.004354	-5.69%	–	pending	–	–	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.004419	-6.53%	–	pending	–	–	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.004689	-8.34%	–	pending	–	–	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.004211	-5.08%	–	pending	–	–	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.004196	-3.63%	0.004312	-0.97%	0.0196	✓	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.00419	-3.37%	0.004362	+0.58%	0.0277	✓	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.004092	-6.42%	0.00434	-0.73%	0.0668	✗	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.004219	-7.55%	0.004365	-4.34%	0.0368	✓	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.004364	-8.97%	0.0043	-10.32%	0.0103	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.004769	-12.49%	0.004521	-17.03%	0.0417	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004155	-4.36%	0.004544	+4.61%	0.1018	✗	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.003768	-1.81%	0.004581	+19.39%	0.2308	✗	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.003895	+0.55%	0.004339	+12.01%	0.1208	✓	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003708	+1.72%	0.004166	+14.28%	0.1354	✓	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.003137	+2.66%	0.00412	+34.84%	0.2837	✓	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.004028	+3.71%	0.004012	+3.30%	0.0123	✓	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.004085	+2.94%	0.004044	+1.89%	0.0059	✓	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.004186	+4.39%	0.004051	+1.04%	0.0220	✓	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.004951	+1.02%	0.003918	-20.06%	0.2249	✗	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.004908	+1.52%	0.004142	-14.32%	0.1585	✗	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.00483	+2.39%	0.00412	-12.67%	0.1467	✗	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.004745	+4.77%	0.004078	-9.97%	0.1371	✗	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.005005	+5.50%	0.004432	-6.56%	0.1046	✗	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.005391	+6.41%	0.003817	-24.66%	0.3351	✗	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.005174	+3.15%	0.004988	-0.55%	0.0094	✓	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.005173	+3.61%	0.005017	+0.48%	0.0028	✓	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.004877	+4.44%	0.005013	+7.36%	0.0433	✓	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.005233	+3.70%	0.004268	-15.43%	0.1864	✗	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005307	+3.96%	0.004541	-11.03%	0.1405	✗	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.005382	+3.52%	0.004455	-14.32%	0.1699	✗	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.005661	+5.13%	0.004617	-14.26%	0.1903	✗	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.005625	+3.83%	0.004728	-12.72%	0.1565	✗	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.005415	+3.52%	0.005116	-2.20%	0.0364	✗	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.005477	+3.81%	0.004436	-15.93%	0.1922	✗	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.005316	+2.70%	0.004354	-15.89%	0.1684	✗	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.005185	+1.93%	0.004336	-14.75%	0.1424	✗	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.005064	+2.80%	0.004372	-11.25%	0.1370	✗	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.005658	-2.11%	0.004563	-21.05%	0.2277	✓	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.005491	-4.48%	0.004794	-16.60%	0.1479	✓	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.00545	-6.36%	0.005449	-6.36%	0.0150	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.005502	-6.59%	0.004344	-26.25%	0.2512	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.005547	-7.39%	0.003837	-35.94%	0.3864	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.00555	-7.38%	0.003874	-35.35%	0.3809	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.005498	-7.07%	0.003645	-38.39%	0.4300	✓	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.005508	-7.10%	0.003056	-48.46%	0.6095	✓	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.005626	-7.29%	0.003884	-35.99%	0.3909	✓	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.005973	-7.75%	0.003968	-38.70%	0.4273	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.006246	-8.12%	0.00401	-41.02%	0.4607	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.006228	-8.16%	0.004901	-27.73%	0.2598	✓	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.005934	-8.07%	0.004835	-25.10%	0.2263	✓	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.006341	-8.66%	0.004718	-32.04%	0.3196	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.006437	-9.04%	0.004529	-35.99%	0.3765	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.006624	-9.51%	0.004744	-35.20%	0.3567	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.005956	-9.32%	0.005066	-22.87%	0.1665	✓	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.005776	-9.51%	0.005016	-21.42%	0.1378	✓	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.005495	-9.46%	0.004993	-17.74%	0.0922	✓	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.005386	-9.58%	0.004669	-21.61%	0.1296	✓	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.005418	-9.85%	0.005046	-16.03%	0.0586	✓	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.005377	-10.08%	0.005104	-14.63%	0.0523	✓	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.005414	-10.20%	0.005199	-13.77%	0.0379	✓	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.005263	-10.09%	0.005385	-8.01%	0.0277	✓	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.005481	-10.46%	0.005417	-11.50%	0.0085	✓	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.005618	-11.33%	0.005231	-17.44%	0.0634	✓	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.005595	-11.38%	0.005276	-16.43%	0.0411	✓	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.005549	-11.60%	0.005177	-17.53%	0.0508	✓	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.005461	-12.07%	0.005087	-18.09%	0.0623	✓	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.005356	-12.65%	0.004926	-19.66%	0.0846	✓	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.005488	-13.68%	0.00578	-9.08%	0.0521	✓	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.005404	-13.54%	0.005749	-8.03%	0.0672	✓	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.005087	-12.31%	0.00582	+0.32%	0.1345	✗	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.005049	-12.97%	0.00589	+1.54%	0.1533	✗	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.005037	-13.12%	0.00599	+3.30%	0.1693	✗	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.005198	-13.96%	0.005993	-0.80%	0.1395	✓	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.005155	-15.59%	0.005916	-3.12%	0.1322	✓	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.005367	-16.80%	0.005929	-8.08%	0.1240	✓	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.004703	-13.54%	0.006068	+11.55%	0.2366	✗	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.004938	-15.77%	0.006474	+10.43%	0.2741	✗	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.004577	-16.52%	0.006798	+23.98%	0.3934	✗	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.004154	-16.91%	0.006782	+35.64%	0.4789	✗	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.004598	-17.86%	0.006455	+15.32%	0.3122	✗	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.003449	-15.50%	0.006942	+70.08%	0.6577	✗	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.003272	-15.31%	0.007076	+83.15%	0.7566	✗	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.002783	-14.10%	0.00732	+125.94%	0.9577	✗	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.002843	-12.31%	0.006568	+102.62%	0.8302	✗	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.002614	-12.86%	0.006383	+112.76%	0.8867	✗	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.001241	-49.17%	0.00607	+148.53%	1.5715	✗	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.00603	-8.97%	0.005956	-10.09%	0.0329	✓	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.006562	-8.72%	0.006009	-16.41%	0.1346	✓	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.006374	-8.07%	0.005979	-13.75%	0.1645	✓	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.007276	-8.05%	0.006029	-23.81%	0.2482	✓	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.008086	-7.96%	0.005854	-33.37%	0.3940	✓	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.008281	-7.91%	0.006121	-31.93%	0.3630	✓	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.00845	-7.84%	0.006336	-30.90%	0.3732	✓	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.008591	-7.75%	0.006314	-32.21%	0.3821	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.009644	-7.74%	0.006277	-39.94%	0.4789	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.