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WARD

Warden · Base · beta_5y

token id
#545
symbol
WARD
variant
–
chain
Base
address
0xf09e4c8193f16019f0573f370f9a997b11f56638
cohort
datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar
2026-02-04
predictions
756
+1d+7d+30d

Track record at +7d

assessed
245
of 252 predictions shown
direction hit
79.6%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.2354
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0394
actual -0.0866

History

as ofsplitanchor pxpred pxpred Δactual pxactual Δalpha errhitβ90d
2026-10-22oos0.0027550.002735-0.71%–pending––1.00
2026-10-21oos0.0027650.002749-0.57%–pending––1.01
2026-10-20oos0.002720.002703-0.63%–pending––1.02
2026-10-19oos0.0027250.0027-0.91%–pending––1.02
2026-10-18oos0.0030750.003014-1.98%–pending––1.01
2026-10-17oos0.0026950.002671-0.88%–pending––0.98
2026-10-16oos0.0026950.002674-0.77%–pending––0.98
2026-10-15oos0.0027450.002725-0.73%0.002755+0.36%0.0134✓0.97
2026-10-14oos0.0027650.00275-0.53%0.002765+0.00%0.0234✓0.97
2026-10-13oos0.0028350.002826-0.31%0.00272-4.06%0.0364✓0.98
2026-10-12oos0.002750.002739-0.41%0.002725-0.91%0.0061✓0.93
2026-10-11oos0.0028250.002815-0.35%0.003075+8.85%0.1040✗0.78
2026-10-10oos0.002840.002827-0.45%0.002695-5.11%0.0333✓0.78
2026-10-09oos0.002790.002782-0.30%0.002695-3.41%0.0216✓0.79
2026-10-08oos0.0027450.002737-0.29%0.002745+0.00%0.0013✓0.80
2026-10-07oos0.002890.002881-0.30%0.002765-4.33%0.0259✓0.74
2026-10-06oos0.002940.002939-0.04%0.002835-3.57%0.0136✓0.77
2026-10-05oos0.003250.00323-0.61%0.00275-15.38%0.1186✓0.88
2026-10-04oos0.003130.00312-0.31%0.002825-9.74%0.0674✓0.96
2026-10-03oos0.003030.003015-0.49%0.00284-6.27%0.0393✓0.94
2026-10-02oos0.002930.002919-0.36%0.00279-4.78%0.0231✓0.95
2026-10-01oos0.003010.003002-0.27%0.002745-8.80%0.0538✓0.94
2026-09-30oos0.002960.002954-0.22%0.00289-2.36%0.0187✓0.92
2026-09-29oos0.0029150.002919+0.12%0.00294+0.86%0.0144✗0.97
2026-09-28oos0.0030.002997-0.09%0.00325+8.33%0.0561✗0.91
2026-09-27oos0.003140.003131-0.27%0.00313-0.32%0.0224✓0.92
2026-09-26oos0.003420.003391-0.84%0.00303-11.40%0.1164✓0.96
2026-09-25oos0.0028950.002903+0.29%0.00293+1.21%0.0043✓0.99
2026-09-24oos0.00280.002813+0.47%0.00301+7.50%0.0621✓1.00
2026-09-23oos0.002840.002852+0.43%0.00296+4.23%0.0469✓1.00
2026-09-22oos0.0029450.002957+0.41%0.002915-1.02%0.0147✓0.97
2026-09-21oos0.0028950.00291+0.51%0.003+3.63%0.0679✓1.01
2026-09-20oos0.002520.00254+0.79%0.00314+24.60%0.1779✓0.86
2026-09-19oos0.002630.002649+0.73%0.00342+30.04%0.2222✓0.87
2026-09-18oos0.0028950.0029+0.18%0.002895+0.00%0.0370✗0.90
2026-09-17oos0.002660.002662+0.07%0.0028+5.26%0.0328✗0.83
2026-09-16oos0.00240.002414+0.57%0.00284+18.33%0.0765✓0.84
2026-09-15oos0.0024550.002465+0.40%0.002945+19.96%0.0627✓0.88
2026-09-14oos0.0025450.002562+0.65%0.002895+13.75%0.0305✓0.90
2026-09-13oos0.002580.002591+0.41%0.00252-2.33%0.0758✗0.87
2026-09-12oos0.00270.002706+0.23%0.00263-2.59%0.0734✗0.90
2026-09-11oos0.0027450.002752+0.25%0.002895+5.46%0.0123✓0.83
2026-09-10oos0.0026050.002617+0.45%0.00266+2.11%0.0186✓0.90
2026-09-09oos0.002860.002865+0.18%0.0024-16.08%0.1534✗0.85
2026-09-08oos0.002720.002737+0.64%0.002455-9.74%0.0779✗0.83
2026-09-07oos0.0026250.002651+1.00%0.002545-3.05%0.0314✗0.82
2026-09-06oos0.0026750.002707+1.19%0.00258-3.55%0.0087✓0.87
2026-09-05oos0.0027450.00278+1.28%0.0027-1.64%0.0003✓0.89
2026-09-04oos0.0026350.002667+1.23%0.002745+4.17%0.0549✓0.83
2026-09-03oos0.002880.002917+1.30%0.002605-9.55%0.0661✗0.79
2026-09-02oos0.002930.002941+0.37%0.00286-2.39%0.0396✗0.93
2026-09-01oos0.003210.003207-0.09%0.00272-15.26%0.1772✓0.93
2026-08-31oos0.0030250.003033+0.28%0.002625-13.22%0.1513✗0.99
2026-08-30oos0.002560.002577+0.65%0.002675+4.49%0.0044✓1.24
2026-08-29oos0.0025450.002563+0.70%0.002745+7.86%0.0490✓0.97
2026-08-28oos0.0027850.002795+0.38%0.002635-5.39%0.0819✗0.98
2026-08-27oos0.002840.002865+0.87%0.00288+1.41%0.0066✓0.97
2026-08-26oos0.0026850.002708+0.86%0.00293+9.12%0.0991✓0.92
2026-08-25oos0.0027050.002727+0.82%0.00321+18.67%0.1764✓0.93
2026-08-24oos0.0028650.002889+0.84%0.003025+5.58%0.0508✓0.91
2026-08-23oos0.0030550.00307+0.50%0.00256-16.20%0.1809✗1.00
2026-08-22oos0.0029550.002967+0.40%0.002545-13.87%0.1683✗0.98
2026-08-21oos0.003040.003061+0.70%0.002785-8.39%0.0885✗0.97
2026-08-20oos0.003040.003013-0.88%0.00284-6.58%0.1560✓1.02
2026-08-19oos0.00310.003046-1.75%0.002685-13.39%0.2809✓1.18
2026-08-18oos0.003040.002943-3.19%0.002705-11.02%0.3367✓1.30
2026-08-17oos0.003230.003116-3.53%0.002865-11.30%0.3269✓1.20
2026-08-16oos0.003040.002931-3.58%0.003055+0.49%0.2033✓1.15
2026-08-15oos0.003080.00297-3.59%0.002955-4.06%0.2312✓1.13
2026-08-14oos0.0029250.002819-3.63%0.00304+3.93%0.1692✓1.12
2026-08-13oos0.0029250.002812-3.87%0.00304+3.93%0.0896✓1.19
2026-08-12oos0.003190.003054-4.28%0.0031-2.82%0.0684✓0.94
2026-08-11oos0.0029450.002821-4.20%0.00304+3.23%0.0615✗0.73
2026-08-10oos0.0034250.003257-4.92%0.00323-5.69%0.0100✓0.21
2026-08-09oos0.003040.002908-4.33%0.00304+0.00%0.0464✗0.07
2026-08-08oos0.003090.002952-4.45%0.00308-0.32%0.0424✓0.00
2026-08-07oos0.003310.003159-4.56%0.002925-11.63%0.0767✓0.01
2026-08-06oos0.0037250.003521-5.49%0.002925-21.48%0.1845✓0.07
2026-08-05oos0.004980.004542-8.79%0.00319-35.94%0.3526✓0.04
2026-08-04oos0.002990.002895-3.17%0.002945-1.51%0.0158✓-0.15
2026-08-03oos0.003180.003064-3.66%0.003425+7.70%0.1125✗-0.14
2026-08-02oos0.003290.003152-4.19%0.00304-7.60%0.0336✓-0.12
2026-08-01oos0.003250.003133-3.61%0.00309-4.92%0.0083✓-0.16
2026-07-31oos0.003130.003035-3.02%0.00331+5.75%0.0919✗-0.16
2026-07-30oos0.0032150.003101-3.56%0.003725+15.86%0.1821✗-0.19
2026-07-29oos0.003450.003327-3.57%0.00498+44.35%0.4060✗-0.23
2026-07-28oos0.003630.003508-3.37%0.00299-17.63%0.1589✓-0.24
2026-07-27oos0.003650.003533-3.21%0.00318-12.88%0.1060✓-0.22
2026-07-26oos0.003780.003654-3.34%0.00329-12.96%0.1123✓-0.26
2026-07-25oos0.0036950.003585-2.98%0.00325-12.04%0.1038✓-0.24
2026-07-24oos0.003690.00359-2.70%0.00313-15.18%0.1407✓-0.17
2026-07-23oos0.0038350.003727-2.83%0.003215-16.17%0.1488✓-0.22
2026-07-22oos0.0040.003888-2.81%0.00345-13.75%0.1272✓-0.23
2026-07-21oos0.003980.003873-2.70%0.00363-8.79%0.0742✓-0.23
2026-07-20oos0.003880.003782-2.53%0.00365-5.93%0.0403✓-0.21
2026-07-19oos0.004110.004008-2.48%0.00378-8.03%0.0565✓-0.21
2026-07-18oos0.0040650.003966-2.44%0.003695-9.10%0.0723✓-0.20
2026-07-17oos0.0042150.004109-2.52%0.00369-12.46%0.1070✓-0.19
2026-07-16oos0.004320.004208-2.59%0.003835-11.23%0.0893✓-0.18
2026-07-15oos0.004530.004385-3.20%0.004-11.70%0.0863✓-0.27
2026-07-14oos0.003690.00356-3.51%0.00398+7.86%0.1170✗-0.24
2026-07-13oos0.00410.004006-2.29%0.00388-5.37%0.0276✓-0.10
2026-07-12oos0.0042450.004114-3.09%0.00411-3.18%0.0009✓-0.13
2026-07-11oos0.0043550.0042-3.55%0.004065-6.66%0.0276✓-0.32
2026-07-10oos0.004720.00456-3.39%0.004215-10.70%0.0797✓-0.30
2026-07-09oos0.005330.005191-2.61%0.00432-18.95%0.1814✓-0.24
2026-07-08oos0.004920.004788-2.68%0.00453-7.93%0.0456✓-0.25
2026-07-07oos0.006240.00612-1.93%0.00369-40.87%0.4959✓-0.39
2026-07-06oos0.007430.007311-1.60%0.0041-44.82%0.5897✓-0.41
2026-07-05oos0.008110.007966-1.78%0.004245-47.66%0.6289✓-0.20
2026-07-04oos0.00780.007667-1.71%0.004355-44.17%0.5634✓-0.20
2026-07-03oos0.0082650.008116-1.80%0.00472-42.89%0.5368✓-0.20
2026-07-02oos0.008560.008401-1.86%0.00533-37.73%0.4500✓-0.18
2026-07-01oos0.007910.007752-2.00%0.00492-37.80%0.4456✓-0.24
2026-06-30oos0.00860.008399-2.34%0.00624-27.44%0.2845✓-0.16
2026-06-29oos0.009090.00883-2.86%0.00743-18.26%0.1594✓-0.21
2026-06-28oos0.007110.006949-2.26%0.00811+14.06%0.1735✗-0.28
2026-06-27oos0.007820.007646-2.23%0.0078-0.26%0.0356✗-0.31
2026-06-26oos0.00810.007894-2.55%0.008265+2.04%0.0582✗-0.30
2026-06-25oos0.0079950.007793-2.53%0.00856+7.07%0.1028✗-0.30
2026-06-24oos0.007880.007697-2.33%0.00791+0.38%0.0238✗-0.21
2026-06-23oos0.008610.008413-2.29%0.0086-0.12%0.0033✓-0.27
2026-06-22oos0.008990.008747-2.71%0.00909+1.11%0.0194✓-0.31
2026-06-21oos0.008690.008462-2.62%0.00711-18.18%0.1936✓-0.32
2026-06-20oos0.009530.009255-2.89%0.00782-17.94%0.1913✓-0.33
2026-06-19oos0.0091450.008891-2.78%0.0081-11.43%0.1115✓-0.33
2026-06-18oos0.008930.008674-2.86%0.007995-10.47%0.0975✓-0.31
2026-06-17oos0.009710.00942-2.99%0.00788-18.85%0.1986✓-0.36
2026-06-16oos0.010180.009836-3.38%0.00861-15.42%0.1486✓-0.33
2026-06-15oos0.009560.00923-3.45%0.00899-5.96%0.0361✓-0.27
2026-06-14oos0.00840.008137-3.14%0.00869+3.45%0.0537✗-0.32
2026-06-13oos0.009470.009083-4.08%0.00953+0.63%0.0472✗-0.24
2026-06-12oos0.007490.007239-3.35%0.009145+22.10%0.2333✗-0.33
2026-06-11oos0.00740.007163-3.20%0.00893+20.68%0.2168✗-0.33
2026-06-10oos0.007540.007303-3.15%0.00971+28.78%0.3003✗-0.32
2026-06-09oos0.006530.006357-2.65%0.01018+55.90%0.4903✗-0.31
2026-06-08oos0.00720.006968-3.22%0.00956+32.78%0.3351✗-0.38
2026-06-07oos0.007830.007557-3.48%0.0084+7.28%0.1232✗-0.47
2026-06-06oos0.008080.007833-3.05%0.00947+17.20%0.2169✗-0.48
2026-06-05oos0.007890.007665-2.86%0.00749-5.07%0.0059✓-0.43
2026-06-04oos0.008840.008502-3.82%0.0074-16.29%0.1410✓-0.56
2026-06-03oos0.009090.008728-3.99%0.00754-17.05%0.1614✓-0.37
2026-06-02oos0.009750.009298-4.64%0.00653-33.03%0.3762✓-0.30
2026-06-01oos0.012530.011523-8.04%0.0072-42.54%0.6141✓-1.17
2026-05-31oos0.0093850.008824-5.98%0.00783-16.57%0.2550✓-0.90
2026-05-30oos0.008910.00839-5.83%0.00808-9.32%0.2023✓-0.86
2026-05-29oos0.0110.010071-8.45%0.00789-28.27%0.3860✓-0.77
2026-05-28oos0.007290.006934-4.88%0.00884+21.26%0.1438✗-0.70
2026-05-27oos0.0075250.007132-5.22%0.00909+20.80%0.1458✗-0.65
2026-05-26oos0.007670.00728-5.09%0.00975+27.12%0.2039✗-0.69
2026-05-25oos0.008930.008503-4.78%0.01253+40.31%0.3625✗-0.31
2026-05-24oos0.0099650.009495-4.71%0.009385-5.82%0.0240✓-0.27
2026-05-23oos0.010650.010171-4.50%0.00891-16.34%0.1371✓-0.12
2026-05-22oos0.0121750.011608-4.66%0.011-9.65%0.0558✓-0.07
2026-05-21oos0.013830.013104-5.25%0.00729-47.29%0.5951✓-0.16
2026-05-20oos0.013210.012603-4.59%0.007525-43.04%0.5215✓-0.14
2026-05-19oos0.0177050.016904-4.52%0.00767-56.68%0.7912✓-0.08
2026-05-18oos0.020550.019336-5.91%0.00893-56.55%0.7731✓0.14
2026-05-17oos0.017440.016508-5.34%0.009965-42.86%0.5031✓0.30
2026-05-16oos0.018220.017227-5.45%0.01065-41.55%0.4754✓0.29
2026-05-15oos0.022690.020991-7.49%0.012175-46.34%0.5336✓0.24
2026-05-14oos0.017190.015997-6.94%0.01383-19.55%0.1271✓0.42
2026-05-13oos0.021820.019614-10.11%0.01321-39.46%0.3853✓0.43
2026-05-12oos0.0067850.006425-5.31%0.017705+160.94%1.0672✗1.13
2026-05-11oos0.00440.004321-1.79%0.02055+367.05%1.6398✗1.33
2026-05-10oos0.002440.002479+1.60%0.01744+614.75%2.0402✓1.49
2026-05-09oos0.002430.002458+1.16%0.01822+649.79%2.0502✓1.47
2026-05-08oos0.002380.002399+0.81%0.02269+853.36%2.2685✓1.54
2026-05-07oos0.002270.002288+0.78%0.01719+657.27%1.9965✓1.52
2026-05-06oos0.002240.002255+0.68%0.02182+874.11%2.3120✓1.59
2026-05-05oos0.0023550.002363+0.35%0.006785+188.11%1.0597✓0.97
2026-05-04oos0.00230.0023+0.02%0.0044+91.30%0.6262✓0.96
2026-05-03oos0.002410.002397-0.55%0.00244+1.24%0.0258✓0.96
2026-05-02oos0.002480.002461-0.77%0.00243-2.02%0.0366✓0.97
2026-05-01oos0.002420.0024-0.82%0.00238-1.65%0.0322✓0.96
2026-04-30oos0.0026450.002615-1.12%0.00227-14.18%0.1882✓0.98
2026-04-29oos0.0027450.002712-1.21%0.00224-18.40%0.2623✓0.98
2026-04-28oos0.002950.002914-1.23%0.002355-20.17%0.2702✓0.98
2026-04-27oos0.002920.00289-1.03%0.0023-21.23%0.2598✓0.99
2026-04-26oos0.003120.003069-1.63%0.00241-22.76%0.2403✓0.99
2026-04-25oos0.002750.002695-2.00%0.00248-9.82%0.0959✓0.97
2026-04-24oos0.003270.003211-1.79%0.00242-25.99%0.2926✓0.97
2026-04-23oos0.003360.003302-1.72%0.002645-21.28%0.1970✓0.97
2026-04-22oos0.0034450.003382-1.84%0.002745-20.32%0.1775✓0.97
2026-04-21oos0.003270.003193-2.36%0.00295-9.79%0.0787✓0.95
2026-04-20oos0.003560.003458-2.87%0.00292-17.98%0.1878✓0.96
2026-04-19oos0.0035450.003424-3.41%0.00312-11.99%0.1533✓0.95
2026-04-18oos0.0034750.003376-2.86%0.00275-20.86%0.2294✓0.98
2026-04-17oos0.003530.003426-2.95%0.00327-7.37%0.0512✓0.99
2026-04-16oos0.003840.003707-3.45%0.00336-12.50%0.1395✓1.01
2026-04-15oos0.0036050.003492-3.13%0.003445-4.44%0.0579✓1.01
2026-04-14oos0.003580.00345-3.62%0.00327-8.66%0.0825✓1.00
2026-04-13oos0.003540.00339-4.25%0.00356+0.56%0.0301✓1.00
2026-04-12oos0.0040150.003825-4.72%0.003545-11.71%0.1226✓1.10
2026-04-11oos0.0041150.003911-4.95%0.003475-15.55%0.1582✓1.12
2026-04-10oos0.0040450.003848-4.87%0.00353-12.73%0.1475✓1.12
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