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WARD

Warden · Base · beta_5y

token id
#545
symbol
WARD
variant
–
chain
Base
address
0xf09e4c8193f16019f0573f370f9a997b11f56638
cohort
datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar
2026-02-04
predictions
756
+1d+7d+30d

Track record at +1d

assessed
251
of 252 predictions shown
direction hit
62.2%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.0766
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0106
actual -0.0139

History

as ofsplitanchor pxpred pxpred Δactual pxactual Δalpha errhitβ90d
2026-10-22oos0.0027550.002746-0.33%–pending––1.00
2026-10-21oos0.0027650.002758-0.26%0.002755-0.36%0.0033✓1.01
2026-10-20oos0.002720.002713-0.28%0.002765+1.65%0.0059✗1.02
2026-10-19oos0.0027250.002714-0.39%0.00272-0.18%0.0116✓1.02
2026-10-18oos0.0030750.003044-1.01%0.002725-11.38%0.1086✓1.01
2026-10-17oos0.0026950.002686-0.34%0.003075+14.10%0.1278✗0.98
2026-10-16oos0.0026950.002686-0.32%0.002695+0.00%0.0047✗0.98
2026-10-15oos0.0027450.002736-0.33%0.002695-1.82%0.0078✓0.97
2026-10-14oos0.0027650.002757-0.27%0.002745-0.72%0.0111✓0.97
2026-10-13oos0.0028350.002829-0.20%0.002765-2.47%0.0047✓0.98
2026-10-12oos0.002750.002744-0.21%0.002835+3.09%0.0172✗0.93
2026-10-11oos0.0028250.002819-0.21%0.00275-2.65%0.0066✓0.78
2026-10-10oos0.002840.002834-0.22%0.002825-0.53%0.0103✓0.78
2026-10-09oos0.002790.002786-0.16%0.00284+1.79%0.0159✗0.79
2026-10-08oos0.0027450.002741-0.13%0.00279+1.64%0.0093✗0.80
2026-10-07oos0.002890.002884-0.19%0.002745-5.02%0.0353✓0.74
2026-10-06oos0.002940.002936-0.13%0.00289-1.70%0.0049✗0.77
2026-10-05oos0.003250.003237-0.40%0.00294-9.54%0.0941✓0.88
2026-10-04oos0.003130.003122-0.26%0.00325+3.83%0.0487✗0.96
2026-10-03oos0.003030.003021-0.31%0.00313+3.30%0.0161✗0.94
2026-10-02oos0.002930.00292-0.34%0.00303+3.41%0.0343✗0.95
2026-10-01oos0.003010.003003-0.23%0.00293-2.66%0.0208✓0.94
2026-09-30oos0.002960.002954-0.19%0.00301+1.69%0.0045✗0.92
2026-09-29oos0.0029150.002912-0.11%0.00296+1.54%0.0174✗0.97
2026-09-28oos0.0030.002994-0.22%0.002915-2.83%0.0286✓0.91
2026-09-27oos0.003140.003131-0.29%0.003-4.46%0.0318✓0.92
2026-09-26oos0.003420.003397-0.66%0.00314-8.19%0.0793✓0.96
2026-09-25oos0.0028950.002891-0.14%0.00342+18.13%0.1643✗0.99
2026-09-24oos0.00280.002798-0.08%0.002895+3.39%0.0376✗1.00
2026-09-23oos0.002840.002837-0.10%0.0028-1.41%0.0132✓1.00
2026-09-22oos0.0029450.00294-0.16%0.00284-3.57%0.0141✓0.97
2026-09-21oos0.0028950.002889-0.19%0.002945+1.73%0.0237✗1.01
2026-09-20oos0.002520.002521+0.04%0.002895+14.88%0.0827✓0.86
2026-09-19oos0.002630.00263+0.01%0.00252-4.18%0.0420✗0.87
2026-09-18oos0.0028950.002888-0.23%0.00263-9.15%0.0977✓0.90
2026-09-17oos0.002660.002655-0.19%0.002895+8.83%0.0386✗0.83
2026-09-16oos0.00240.002401+0.03%0.00266+10.83%0.1003✓0.84
2026-09-15oos0.0024550.002454-0.04%0.0024-2.24%0.0288✓0.88
2026-09-14oos0.0025450.002545-0.01%0.002455-3.54%0.0056✓0.90
2026-09-13oos0.002580.002579-0.06%0.002545-1.36%0.0286✓0.87
2026-09-12oos0.00270.002696-0.14%0.00258-4.44%0.0387✓0.90
2026-09-11oos0.0027450.002741-0.16%0.0027-1.64%0.0155✓0.83
2026-09-10oos0.0026050.002602-0.11%0.002745+5.37%0.0455✗0.90
2026-09-09oos0.002860.002848-0.43%0.002605-8.92%0.0698✓0.85
2026-09-08oos0.002720.002717-0.11%0.00286+5.15%0.0531✗0.83
2026-09-07oos0.0026250.002625+0.01%0.00272+3.62%0.0421✓0.82
2026-09-06oos0.0026750.002676+0.03%0.002625-1.87%0.0055✗0.87
2026-09-05oos0.0027450.002747+0.06%0.002675-2.55%0.0320✗0.89
2026-09-04oos0.0026350.002637+0.08%0.002745+4.17%0.0384✓0.83
2026-09-03oos0.002880.00288+0.02%0.002635-8.51%0.0736✗0.79
2026-09-02oos0.002930.002925-0.16%0.00288-1.71%0.0623✓0.93
2026-09-01oos0.003210.003194-0.49%0.00293-8.72%0.0852✓0.93
2026-08-31oos0.0030250.003012-0.42%0.00321+6.12%0.0784✗0.99
2026-08-30oos0.002560.002561+0.02%0.003025+18.16%0.1525✓1.24
2026-08-29oos0.0025450.002546+0.04%0.00256+0.59%0.0126✓0.97
2026-08-28oos0.0027850.002784-0.05%0.002545-8.62%0.0946✓0.98
2026-08-27oos0.002840.002841+0.04%0.002785-1.94%0.0100✓0.97
2026-08-26oos0.0026850.002688+0.10%0.00284+5.77%0.0407✓0.92
2026-08-25oos0.0027050.002708+0.11%0.002685-0.74%0.0144✗0.93
2026-08-24oos0.0028650.002868+0.11%0.002705-5.58%0.0533✗0.91
2026-08-23oos0.0030550.003056+0.02%0.002865-6.22%0.0804✗1.00
2026-08-22oos0.0029550.002956+0.04%0.003055+3.38%0.0244✓0.98
2026-08-21oos0.003040.003042+0.07%0.002955-2.80%0.0131✗0.97
2026-08-20oos0.003040.003032-0.26%0.00304+0.00%0.0692✓1.02
2026-08-19oos0.00310.003086-0.46%0.00304-1.94%0.0764✓1.18
2026-08-18oos0.003040.003015-0.81%0.0031+1.97%0.0621✓1.30
2026-08-17oos0.003230.003198-0.99%0.00304-5.88%0.0545✓1.20
2026-08-16oos0.003040.003013-0.90%0.00323+6.25%0.0400✗1.15
2026-08-15oos0.003080.003053-0.88%0.00304-1.30%0.0010✓1.13
2026-08-14oos0.0029250.002902-0.80%0.00308+5.30%0.0589✗1.12
2026-08-13oos0.0029250.002901-0.83%0.002925+0.00%0.0169✗1.19
2026-08-12oos0.003190.003157-1.03%0.002925-8.31%0.0766✓0.94
2026-08-11oos0.0029450.002919-0.87%0.00319+8.32%0.0900✗0.73
2026-08-10oos0.0034250.003381-1.28%0.002945-14.01%0.1369✓0.21
2026-08-09oos0.003040.003012-0.91%0.003425+12.66%0.1293✗0.07
2026-08-08oos0.003090.003062-0.91%0.00304-1.62%0.0072✓0.00
2026-08-07oos0.003310.003277-1.00%0.00309-6.65%0.0588✓0.01
2026-08-06oos0.0037250.00367-1.47%0.00331-11.14%0.1039✓0.07
2026-08-05oos0.004980.004775-4.12%0.003725-25.20%0.2481✓0.04
2026-08-04oos0.002990.002974-0.54%0.00498+66.56%0.5168✗-0.15
2026-08-03oos0.003180.003157-0.72%0.00299-5.97%0.0532✓-0.14
2026-08-02oos0.003290.003259-0.94%0.00318-3.34%0.0247✓-0.12
2026-08-01oos0.003250.003227-0.71%0.00329+1.23%0.0213✗-0.16
2026-07-31oos0.003130.003113-0.55%0.00325+3.83%0.0430✗-0.16
2026-07-30oos0.0032150.003191-0.74%0.00313-2.64%0.0250✓-0.19
2026-07-29oos0.003450.003424-0.76%0.003215-6.81%0.0600✓-0.23
2026-07-28oos0.003630.003603-0.76%0.00345-4.96%0.0431✓-0.24
2026-07-27oos0.003650.003625-0.70%0.00363-0.55%0.0020✓-0.22
2026-07-26oos0.003780.00375-0.79%0.00365-3.44%0.0336✓-0.26
2026-07-25oos0.0036950.003671-0.66%0.00378+2.30%0.0332✗-0.24
2026-07-24oos0.003690.003669-0.58%0.003695+0.14%0.0078✗-0.17
2026-07-23oos0.0038350.00381-0.66%0.00369-3.78%0.0352✓-0.22
2026-07-22oos0.0040.003972-0.70%0.003835-4.13%0.0388✓-0.23
2026-07-21oos0.003980.003953-0.67%0.004+0.50%0.0102✗-0.23
2026-07-20oos0.003880.003858-0.57%0.00398+2.58%0.0352✗-0.21
2026-07-19oos0.004110.004086-0.58%0.00388-5.60%0.0500✓-0.21
2026-07-18oos0.0040650.004043-0.55%0.00411+1.11%0.0162✗-0.20
2026-07-17oos0.0042150.00419-0.59%0.004065-3.56%0.0276✓-0.19
2026-07-16oos0.004320.004293-0.63%0.004215-2.43%0.0180✓-0.18
2026-07-15oos0.004530.00449-0.89%0.00432-4.64%0.0425✓-0.27
2026-07-14oos0.003690.003664-0.70%0.00453+22.76%0.2111✗-0.24
2026-07-13oos0.00410.004083-0.41%0.00369-10.00%0.0971✓-0.10
2026-07-12oos0.0042450.004219-0.61%0.0041-3.42%0.0316✓-0.13
2026-07-11oos0.0043550.004324-0.70%0.004245-2.53%0.0187✓-0.32
2026-07-10oos0.004720.004689-0.67%0.004355-7.73%0.0755✓-0.30
2026-07-09oos0.005330.005304-0.49%0.00472-11.44%0.1131✓-0.24
2026-07-08oos0.004920.004901-0.39%0.00533+8.33%0.0877✗-0.25
2026-07-07oos0.006240.006219-0.33%0.00492-21.15%0.2410✓-0.39
2026-07-06oos0.007430.007403-0.36%0.00624-16.02%0.1753✓-0.41
2026-07-05oos0.008110.008072-0.47%0.00743-8.38%0.0816✓-0.20
2026-07-04oos0.00780.007768-0.42%0.00811+3.97%0.0447✗-0.20
2026-07-03oos0.0082650.008225-0.48%0.0078-5.63%0.0512✓-0.20
2026-07-02oos0.008560.008514-0.54%0.008265-3.45%0.0266✓-0.18
2026-07-01oos0.007910.007869-0.52%0.00856+8.22%0.0903✗-0.24
2026-06-30oos0.00860.008538-0.73%0.00791-8.02%0.0725✓-0.16
2026-06-29oos0.009090.008993-1.07%0.0086-5.39%0.0505✓-0.21
2026-06-28oos0.007110.007073-0.51%0.00909+27.85%0.2541✗-0.28
2026-06-27oos0.007820.007775-0.57%0.00711-9.08%0.0918✓-0.31
2026-06-26oos0.00810.008045-0.67%0.00782-3.46%0.0288✓-0.30
2026-06-25oos0.0079950.007943-0.65%0.0081+1.31%0.0211✗-0.30
2026-06-24oos0.007880.007836-0.56%0.007995+1.46%0.0156✗-0.21
2026-06-23oos0.008610.008558-0.61%0.00788-8.48%0.0899✓-0.27
2026-06-22oos0.008990.008922-0.75%0.00861-4.23%0.0421✓-0.31
2026-06-21oos0.008690.00863-0.69%0.00899+3.45%0.0445✗-0.32
2026-06-20oos0.009530.00945-0.84%0.00869-8.81%0.0889✓-0.33
2026-06-19oos0.0091450.009076-0.76%0.00953+4.21%0.0527✗-0.33
2026-06-18oos0.008930.008864-0.74%0.009145+2.41%0.0342✗-0.31
2026-06-17oos0.009710.009627-0.85%0.00893-8.03%0.0842✓-0.36
2026-06-16oos0.010180.010073-1.05%0.00971-4.62%0.0427✓-0.33
2026-06-15oos0.009560.009454-1.10%0.01018+6.49%0.0712✗-0.27
2026-06-14oos0.00840.008332-0.80%0.00956+13.81%0.1401✗-0.32
2026-06-13oos0.009470.009342-1.35%0.0084-11.30%0.1016✓-0.24
2026-06-12oos0.007490.007431-0.79%0.00947+26.44%0.2471✗-0.33
2026-06-11oos0.00740.007346-0.74%0.00749+1.22%0.0193✗-0.33
2026-06-10oos0.007540.007483-0.76%0.0074-1.86%0.0002✓-0.32
2026-06-09oos0.006530.006503-0.42%0.00754+15.47%0.1468✗-0.31
2026-06-08oos0.00720.007156-0.61%0.00653-9.31%0.0999✓-0.38
2026-06-07oos0.007830.007772-0.73%0.0072-8.05%0.0783✓-0.47
2026-06-06oos0.008080.008032-0.59%0.00783-3.09%0.0067✓-0.48
2026-06-05oos0.007890.007855-0.45%0.00808+2.41%0.0270✗-0.43
2026-06-04oos0.008840.008766-0.83%0.00789-10.75%0.1304✓-0.56
2026-06-03oos0.009090.009009-0.89%0.00884-2.75%0.0203✓-0.37
2026-06-02oos0.009750.00964-1.13%0.00909-6.77%0.0706✓-0.30
2026-06-01oos0.012530.012104-3.40%0.00975-22.19%0.2952✓-1.17
2026-05-31oos0.0093850.00922-1.76%0.01253+33.51%0.2786✗-0.90
2026-05-30oos0.008910.008764-1.63%0.009385+5.33%0.0661✗-0.86
2026-05-29oos0.0110.010585-3.78%0.00891-19.00%0.1680✓-0.77
2026-05-28oos0.007290.007206-1.15%0.011+50.89%0.4216✗-0.70
2026-05-27oos0.0075250.007425-1.33%0.00729-3.12%0.0254✓-0.65
2026-05-26oos0.007670.007579-1.18%0.007525-1.89%0.0210✓-0.69
2026-05-25oos0.008930.008823-1.20%0.00767-14.11%0.1459✓-0.31
2026-05-24oos0.0099650.009837-1.28%0.00893-10.39%0.0958✓-0.27
2026-05-23oos0.010650.01052-1.22%0.009965-6.43%0.0537✓-0.12
2026-05-22oos0.0121750.012004-1.41%0.01065-12.53%0.1185✓-0.07
2026-05-21oos0.013830.013549-2.03%0.012175-11.97%0.1114✓-0.16
2026-05-20oos0.013210.012991-1.66%0.01383+4.69%0.0627✗-0.14
2026-05-19oos0.0177050.01738-1.83%0.01321-25.39%0.2736✓-0.08
2026-05-18oos0.020550.019858-3.37%0.017705-13.84%0.1144✓0.14
2026-05-17oos0.017440.01695-2.81%0.02055+17.83%0.1944✗0.30
2026-05-16oos0.018220.017693-2.89%0.01744-4.28%0.0118✓0.29
2026-05-15oos0.022690.021614-4.74%0.01822-19.70%0.1680✓0.24
2026-05-14oos0.017190.016506-3.98%0.02269+32.00%0.3287✗0.42
2026-05-13oos0.021820.020371-6.64%0.01719-21.22%0.1794✓0.43
2026-05-12oos0.0067850.006525-3.84%0.02182+221.59%1.2242✗1.13
2026-05-11oos0.00440.004309-2.07%0.006785+54.20%0.4745✗1.33
2026-05-10oos0.002440.002442+0.10%0.0044+80.33%0.5972✓1.49
2026-05-09oos0.002430.002431+0.05%0.00244+0.41%0.0242✗1.47
2026-05-08oos0.002380.00238-0.02%0.00243+2.10%0.0120✗1.54
2026-05-07oos0.002270.002271+0.06%0.00238+4.85%0.0432✓1.52
2026-05-06oos0.002240.002241+0.05%0.00227+1.34%0.0410✓1.59
2026-05-05oos0.0023550.002355-0.02%0.00224-4.88%0.0562✓0.97
2026-05-04oos0.00230.002298-0.07%0.002355+2.39%0.0117✗0.96
2026-05-03oos0.002410.002406-0.16%0.0023-4.56%0.0609✓0.96
2026-05-02oos0.002480.002474-0.23%0.00241-2.82%0.0248✓0.97
2026-05-01oos0.002420.002416-0.18%0.00248+2.48%0.0208✗0.96
2026-04-30oos0.0026450.002637-0.29%0.00242-8.51%0.1106✓0.98
2026-04-29oos0.0027450.002736-0.34%0.002645-3.64%0.0408✓0.98
2026-04-28oos0.002950.002939-0.36%0.002745-6.95%0.0611✓0.98
2026-04-27oos0.002920.002911-0.32%0.00295+1.03%0.0269✗0.99
2026-04-26oos0.003120.0031-0.64%0.00292-6.41%0.0432✓0.99
2026-04-25oos0.002750.002733-0.62%0.00312+13.45%0.1198✗0.97
2026-04-24oos0.003270.003255-0.47%0.00275-15.90%0.1708✓0.97
2026-04-23oos0.003360.003343-0.50%0.00327-2.68%0.0119✓0.97
2026-04-22oos0.0034450.003429-0.47%0.00336-2.47%0.0212✓0.97
2026-04-21oos0.003270.003252-0.56%0.003445+5.35%0.0348✗0.95
2026-04-20oos0.003560.003534-0.72%0.00327-8.15%0.0838✓0.96
2026-04-19oos0.0035450.003513-0.90%0.00356+0.42%0.0126✓0.95
2026-04-18oos0.0034750.003452-0.66%0.003545+2.01%0.0516✗0.98
2026-04-17oos0.003530.003502-0.79%0.003475-1.56%0.0098✗0.99
2026-04-16oos0.003840.003802-0.99%0.00353-8.07%0.0999✓1.01
2026-04-15oos0.0036050.003579-0.71%0.00384+6.52%0.0659✗1.01
2026-04-14oos0.003580.003551-0.80%0.003605+0.70%0.0062✓1.00
2026-04-13oos0.003540.003504-1.03%0.00358+1.13%0.0252✗1.00
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