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WARD

Warden · Base · beta_5y

token id
#545
symbol
WARD
variant
–
chain
Base
address
0xf09e4c8193f16019f0573f370f9a997b11f56638
cohort
datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar
2026-02-04
predictions
756
+1d+7d+30d

Track record at +30d

assessed
222
of 252 predictions shown
direction hit
81.1%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.5671
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0863
actual -0.2467

History

as ofsplitanchor pxpred pxpred Δactual pxactual Δalpha errhitβ90d
2026-10-22live0.0027550.002645-4.01%–pending––1.00
2026-10-21oos0.0027350.002622-4.13%–pending––1.01
2026-10-20oos0.002720.002617-3.80%–pending––1.02
2026-10-19oos0.0027250.002615-4.03%–pending––1.02
2026-10-18oos0.0030750.002897-5.78%–pending––1.01
2026-10-17oos0.0026950.002576-4.42%–pending––0.98
2026-10-16oos0.0026950.002584-4.11%–pending––0.98
2026-10-15oos0.0027450.002637-3.94%–pending––0.97
2026-10-14oos0.0027650.002669-3.48%–pending––0.97
2026-10-13oos0.0028350.002753-2.90%–pending––0.98
2026-10-12oos0.002750.002671-2.87%–pending––0.93
2026-10-11oos0.0028250.002745-2.82%–pending––0.78
2026-10-10oos0.002840.00276-2.83%–pending––0.78
2026-10-09oos0.002790.002728-2.21%–pending––0.79
2026-10-08oos0.0027450.002698-1.73%–pending––0.80
2026-10-07oos0.002890.002838-1.80%–pending––0.74
2026-10-06oos0.002940.002893-1.58%–pending––0.77
2026-10-05oos0.003250.003167-2.57%–pending––0.88
2026-10-04oos0.003130.00305-2.55%–pending––0.96
2026-10-03oos0.003030.002946-2.79%–pending––0.94
2026-10-02oos0.002930.002855-2.56%–pending––0.95
2026-10-01oos0.003010.002916-3.14%–pending––0.94
2026-09-30oos0.002960.002879-2.73%–pending––0.92
2026-09-29oos0.0029150.002852-2.16%–pending––0.97
2026-09-28oos0.0030.002931-2.29%–pending––0.91
2026-09-27oos0.003140.003057-2.65%–pending––0.92
2026-09-26oos0.003420.003303-3.42%–pending––0.96
2026-09-25oos0.0028950.002843-1.78%–pending––0.99
2026-09-24oos0.00280.002762-1.35%–pending––1.00
2026-09-23oos0.002840.002806-1.21%–pending––1.00
2026-09-22oos0.0029450.002919-0.88%0.002755-6.45%0.0354✓0.97
2026-09-21oos0.0028950.002896+0.03%0.002735-5.53%0.0105✗1.01
2026-09-20oos0.002520.002524+0.18%0.00272+7.94%0.0560✓0.86
2026-09-19oos0.002630.002632+0.07%0.002725+3.61%0.0284✓0.87
2026-09-18oos0.0028950.002861-1.19%0.003075+6.22%0.0597✗0.90
2026-09-17oos0.002660.00262-1.50%0.002695+1.32%0.0250✓0.83
2026-09-16oos0.00240.002387-0.53%0.002695+12.29%0.0643✗0.84
2026-09-15oos0.0024550.002429-1.06%0.002745+11.81%0.0495✗0.88
2026-09-14oos0.0025450.002533-0.46%0.002765+8.64%0.0494✗0.90
2026-09-13oos0.002580.002554-1.00%0.002835+9.88%0.0356✗0.87
2026-09-12oos0.00270.002665-1.31%0.00275+1.85%0.0190✓0.90
2026-09-11oos0.0027450.002718-0.99%0.002825+2.91%0.0280✓0.83
2026-09-10oos0.0026050.002603-0.07%0.00284+9.02%0.0149✗0.90
2026-09-09oos0.002860.002879+0.67%0.00279-2.45%0.0768✗0.85
2026-09-08oos0.002720.002742+0.82%0.002745+0.92%0.0327✗0.83
2026-09-07oos0.0026250.002666+1.55%0.00289+10.10%0.0387✓0.82
2026-09-06oos0.0026750.002756+3.03%0.00294+9.91%0.0100✓0.87
2026-09-05oos0.0027450.002879+4.87%0.00325+18.40%0.0580✓0.89
2026-09-04oos0.0026350.002766+4.98%0.00313+18.79%0.0552✓0.83
2026-09-03oos0.002880.003057+6.15%0.00303+5.21%0.0419✓0.79
2026-09-02oos0.002930.002963+1.12%0.00293+0.00%0.0943✗0.93
2026-09-01oos0.003210.003208-0.07%0.00301-6.23%0.1490✓0.93
2026-08-31oos0.0030250.003053+0.92%0.00296-2.15%0.0920✗0.99
2026-08-30oos0.002560.002574+0.56%0.002915+13.87%0.0328✓1.24
2026-08-29oos0.0025450.002565+0.79%0.003+17.88%0.0937✓0.97
2026-08-28oos0.0027850.002751-1.23%0.00314+12.75%0.0526✗0.98
2026-08-27oos0.002840.002863+0.81%0.00342+20.42%0.1288✓0.97
2026-08-26oos0.0026850.002708+0.87%0.002895+7.82%0.0093✓0.92
2026-08-25oos0.0027050.002717+0.45%0.0028+3.51%0.0365✗0.93
2026-08-24oos0.0028650.002869+0.13%0.00284-0.87%0.0704✗0.91
2026-08-23oos0.0030550.00301-1.46%0.002945-3.60%0.1250✓1.00
2026-08-22oos0.0029550.0029-1.88%0.002895-2.03%0.1159✓0.98
2026-08-21oos0.003040.003022-0.58%0.00252-17.11%0.2165✓0.97
2026-08-20oos0.003040.002874-5.46%0.00263-13.49%0.1977✓1.02
2026-08-19oos0.00310.002906-6.26%0.002895-6.61%0.1859✓1.18
2026-08-18oos0.003040.002837-6.67%0.00266-12.50%0.2803✓1.30
2026-08-17oos0.003230.002994-7.30%0.0024-25.70%0.4203✓1.20
2026-08-16oos0.003040.002838-6.64%0.002455-19.24%0.3576✓1.15
2026-08-15oos0.003080.00287-6.81%0.002545-17.37%0.3629✓1.13
2026-08-14oos0.0029250.002733-6.55%0.00258-11.79%0.2804✓1.12
2026-08-13oos0.0029250.002728-6.73%0.0027-7.69%0.2455✓1.19
2026-08-12oos0.003190.002953-7.43%0.002745-13.95%0.2580✓0.94
2026-08-11oos0.0029450.002744-6.83%0.002605-11.54%0.1880✓0.73
2026-08-10oos0.0034250.003146-8.13%0.00286-16.50%0.1374✓0.21
2026-08-09oos0.003040.002818-7.31%0.00272-10.53%0.0481✓0.07
2026-08-08oos0.003090.002859-7.48%0.002625-15.05%0.0861✓0.00
2026-08-07oos0.003310.003056-7.67%0.002675-19.18%0.1356✓0.01
2026-08-06oos0.0037250.003406-8.56%0.002745-26.31%0.2300✓0.07
2026-08-05oos0.004980.004362-12.40%0.002635-47.09%0.5134✓0.04
2026-08-04oos0.002990.002771-7.33%0.00288-3.68%0.0739✓-0.15
2026-08-03oos0.003180.00293-7.87%0.00293-7.86%0.0275✓-0.14
2026-08-02oos0.003290.003006-8.63%0.00321-2.43%0.0903✗-0.12
2026-08-01oos0.003250.002979-8.33%0.003025-6.92%0.0510✓-0.16
2026-07-31oos0.003130.002881-7.95%0.00256-18.21%0.0838✓-0.16
2026-07-30oos0.0032150.002958-7.99%0.002545-20.84%0.1148✓-0.19
2026-07-29oos0.003450.003194-7.42%0.002785-19.28%0.0915✓-0.23
2026-07-28oos0.003630.00338-6.90%0.00284-21.76%0.1195✓-0.24
2026-07-27oos0.003650.003397-6.93%0.002685-26.44%0.1871✓-0.22
2026-07-26oos0.003780.003521-6.84%0.002705-28.44%0.2161✓-0.26
2026-07-25oos0.0036950.003451-6.59%0.002865-22.46%0.1372✓-0.24
2026-07-24oos0.003690.003462-6.17%0.003055-17.21%0.0918✓-0.17
2026-07-23oos0.0038350.003594-6.27%0.002955-22.95%0.1589✓-0.22
2026-07-22oos0.0040.003739-6.52%0.00304-24.00%0.1677✓-0.23
2026-07-21oos0.003980.003723-6.46%0.00304-23.62%0.1809✓-0.23
2026-07-20oos0.003880.00364-6.17%0.0031-20.10%0.1482✓-0.21
2026-07-19oos0.004110.003844-6.48%0.00304-26.03%0.2346✓-0.21
2026-07-18oos0.0040650.003809-6.29%0.00323-20.54%0.1660✓-0.20
2026-07-17oos0.0042150.003945-6.40%0.00304-27.88%0.2639✓-0.19
2026-07-16oos0.004320.00403-6.71%0.00308-28.70%0.2710✓-0.18
2026-07-15oos0.004530.0042-7.28%0.002925-35.43%0.3692✓-0.27
2026-07-14oos0.003690.003508-4.93%0.002925-20.73%0.1877✓-0.24
2026-07-13oos0.00410.003901-4.87%0.00319-22.20%0.1993✓-0.10
2026-07-12oos0.0042450.004043-4.76%0.002945-30.62%0.3173✓-0.13
2026-07-11oos0.0043550.004165-4.37%0.003425-21.35%0.1949✓-0.32
2026-07-10oos0.004720.004503-4.60%0.00304-35.59%0.3895✓-0.30
2026-07-09oos0.005330.00508-4.69%0.00309-42.03%0.4907✓-0.24
2026-07-08oos0.004920.004731-3.83%0.00331-32.72%0.3468✓-0.25
2026-07-07oos0.006240.00591-5.29%0.003725-40.30%0.4559✓-0.39
2026-07-06oos0.007430.006989-5.93%0.00498-32.97%0.3351✓-0.41
2026-07-05oos0.008110.007571-6.65%0.00299-63.13%0.9276✓-0.20
2026-07-04oos0.00780.007255-6.98%0.00318-59.23%0.8237✓-0.20
2026-07-03oos0.0082650.007636-7.61%0.00329-60.19%0.8389✓-0.20
2026-07-02oos0.008560.007843-8.38%0.00325-62.03%0.8772✓-0.18
2026-07-01oos0.007910.007232-8.57%0.00313-60.43%0.8263✓-0.24
2026-06-30oos0.00860.007758-9.79%0.003215-62.62%0.8647✓-0.16
2026-06-29oos0.009090.00811-10.78%0.00345-62.05%0.8419✓-0.21
2026-06-28oos0.007110.006472-8.97%0.00363-48.95%0.5581✓-0.28
2026-06-27oos0.007820.007066-9.64%0.00365-53.32%0.6420✓-0.31
2026-06-26oos0.00810.007302-9.85%0.00378-53.33%0.6330✓-0.30
2026-06-25oos0.0079950.007194-10.02%0.003695-53.78%0.6440✓-0.30
2026-06-24oos0.007880.007101-9.89%0.00369-53.17%0.6441✓-0.21
2026-06-23oos0.008610.007722-10.31%0.003835-55.46%0.6896✓-0.27
2026-06-22oos0.008990.008046-10.50%0.004-55.51%0.6886✓-0.31
2026-06-21oos0.008690.007754-10.77%0.00398-54.20%0.6509✓-0.32
2026-06-20oos0.009530.008422-11.62%0.00388-59.29%0.7700✓-0.33
2026-06-19oos0.0091450.008077-11.68%0.00411-55.06%0.6694✓-0.33
2026-06-18oos0.008930.007877-11.79%0.004065-54.48%0.6524✓-0.31
2026-06-17oos0.009710.008475-12.72%0.004215-56.59%0.7016✓-0.36
2026-06-16oos0.010180.008805-13.50%0.00432-57.56%0.7216✓-0.33
2026-06-15oos0.009560.008266-13.54%0.00453-52.62%0.6079✓-0.27
2026-06-14oos0.00840.007323-12.83%0.00369-56.07%0.6888✓-0.32
2026-06-13oos0.009470.008087-14.60%0.0041-56.71%0.6876✓-0.24
2026-06-12oos0.007490.006552-12.52%0.004245-43.32%0.4330✓-0.33
2026-06-11oos0.00740.006473-12.52%0.004355-41.15%0.3953✓-0.33
2026-06-10oos0.007540.006606-12.39%0.00472-37.40%0.3223✓-0.32
2026-06-09oos0.006530.005845-10.49%0.00533-18.38%0.0848✓-0.31
2026-06-08oos0.00720.006365-11.60%0.00492-31.67%0.2625✓-0.38
2026-06-07oos0.007830.00686-12.39%0.00624-20.31%0.0945✓-0.47
2026-06-06oos0.008080.007091-12.24%0.00743-8.04%0.0707✓-0.48
2026-06-05oos0.007890.006937-12.08%0.00811+2.79%0.1737✗-0.43
2026-06-04oos0.008840.007648-13.48%0.0078-11.76%0.0133✓-0.56
2026-06-03oos0.009090.007859-13.54%0.008265-9.08%0.0415✓-0.37
2026-06-02oos0.009750.0084-13.85%0.00856-12.21%0.0049✓-0.30
2026-06-01oos0.012530.010342-17.46%0.00791-36.87%0.4708✓-1.17
2026-05-31oos0.0093850.008004-14.71%0.0086-8.36%0.1345✓-0.90
2026-05-30oos0.008910.007621-14.47%0.00909+2.02%0.0019✓-0.86
2026-05-29oos0.0110.009106-17.22%0.00711-35.36%0.4093✓-0.77
2026-05-28oos0.007290.006434-11.74%0.00782+7.27%0.0522✓-0.70
2026-05-27oos0.0075250.006618-12.06%0.0081+7.64%0.0630✓-0.65
2026-05-26oos0.007670.006745-12.07%0.007995+4.24%0.0063✓-0.69
2026-05-25oos0.008930.007786-12.81%0.00788-11.76%0.0625✓-0.31
2026-05-24oos0.0099650.008698-12.72%0.00861-13.60%0.0661✓-0.27
2026-05-23oos0.010650.009338-12.32%0.00899-15.59%0.0602✓-0.12
2026-05-22oos0.0121750.010684-12.25%0.00869-28.62%0.2194✓-0.07
2026-05-21oos0.013830.012129-12.30%0.00953-31.09%0.2717✓-0.16
2026-05-20oos0.013210.011653-11.79%0.009145-30.77%0.2700✓-0.14
2026-05-19oos0.0177050.015419-12.91%0.00893-49.56%0.5622✓-0.08
2026-05-18oos0.020550.017519-14.75%0.00971-52.75%0.5659✓0.14
2026-05-17oos0.017440.015003-13.97%0.01018-41.63%0.3384✓0.30
2026-05-16oos0.018220.015604-14.36%0.00956-47.53%0.4419✓0.29
2026-05-15oos0.022690.018865-16.86%0.0084-62.98%0.7651✓0.24
2026-05-14oos0.017190.014528-15.48%0.00947-44.91%0.3326✓0.42
2026-05-13oos0.021820.01768-18.97%0.00749-65.67%0.7633✓0.43
2026-05-12oos0.0067850.006061-10.68%0.0074+9.06%0.4667✗1.13
2026-05-11oos0.00440.004238-3.67%0.00754+71.36%0.9564✗1.33
2026-05-10oos0.002440.002539+4.04%0.00653+167.62%1.3717✓1.49
2026-05-09oos0.002430.002482+2.14%0.0072+196.30%1.4260✓1.47
2026-05-08oos0.002380.002405+1.07%0.00783+228.99%1.5437✓1.54
2026-05-07oos0.002270.002295+1.12%0.00808+255.95%1.6740✓1.52
2026-05-06oos0.002240.002269+1.28%0.00789+252.23%1.7044✓1.59
2026-05-05oos0.0023550.002351-0.17%0.00884+275.37%1.5545✗0.97
2026-05-04oos0.00230.002284-0.70%0.00909+295.22%1.5933✗0.96
2026-05-03oos0.002410.002362-1.97%0.00975+304.56%1.5760✗0.96
2026-05-02oos0.002480.002421-2.37%0.01253+405.24%1.7387✗0.97
2026-05-01oos0.002420.002365-2.25%0.009385+287.81%1.4372✗0.96
2026-04-30oos0.0026450.002553-3.49%0.00891+236.86%1.2832✗0.98
2026-04-29oos0.0027450.002636-3.98%0.011+300.73%1.4602✗0.98
2026-04-28oos0.002950.002807-4.84%0.00729+147.12%0.9911✗0.98
2026-04-27oos0.002920.002781-4.75%0.007525+157.71%1.0352✗0.99
2026-04-26oos0.003120.002926-6.23%0.00767+145.83%1.0004✗0.99
2026-04-25oos0.002750.002605-5.28%0.00893+224.73%1.2371✗0.97
2026-04-24oos0.003270.003032-7.28%0.009965+204.74%1.1960✗0.97
2026-04-23oos0.003360.003095-7.87%0.01065+216.96%1.2561✗0.97
2026-04-22oos0.0034450.003155-8.43%0.012175+253.41%1.3855✗0.97
2026-04-21oos0.003270.002999-8.29%0.01383+322.94%1.5137✗0.95
2026-04-20oos0.003560.003215-9.68%0.01321+271.07%1.3930✗0.96
2026-04-19oos0.0035450.003195-9.88%0.017705+399.44%1.6753✗0.95
2026-04-18oos0.0034750.003131-9.89%0.02055+491.37%1.8660✗0.98
2026-04-17oos0.003530.003154-10.65%0.01744+394.05%1.7061✗0.99
2026-04-16oos0.003840.003406-11.31%0.01822+374.48%1.6382✗1.01
2026-04-15oos0.0036050.003232-10.35%0.02269+529.40%1.8937✗1.01
2026-04-14oos0.003580.003193-10.82%0.01719+380.17%1.5945✗1.00
2026-04-13oos0.003540.003134-11.46%0.02182+516.38%1.8772✗1.00
2026-04-12oos0.0040150.003537-11.91%0.006785+68.99%0.5103✗1.10
2026-04-11oos0.0041150.003566-13.35%0.0044+6.93%0.0849✓1.12
2026-04-10oos0.0040450.003495-13.60%0.00244-39.68%0.4923✓1.12
2026-04-09oos0.003850.003349-13.02%0.00243-36.88%0.4489✓1.10
2026-04-08oos0.004030.003489-13.43%0.00238-40.94%0.5154✓1.10
2026-04-07oos0.0043550.003707-14.87%0.00227-47.88%0.6079✓1.10
2026-04-06oos0.0037850.003322-12.23%0.00224-40.82%0.5635✓1.01
2026-04-05oos0.004090.003563-12.89%0.002355-42.42%0.5746✓1.01
2026-04-04oos0.00420.003684-12.28%0.0023-45.24%0.6439✓1.01
2026-04-03oos0.0041250.003609-12.50%0.00241-41.58%0.5642✓1.00
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