UPROBINHOOD

? · · beta_5y

token id: #949
symbol: UPROBINHOOD
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-11
predictions: 192

Track record at +7d

assessed

57

of 64 predictions shown

direction hit

66.7%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4241

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0627

actual +0.0601

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	0.28138	0.267089	-5.08%	–	pending	–	–	2.34
2026-10-21	oos	0.276795	0.262933	-5.01%	–	pending	–	–	2.34
2026-10-20	oos	0.277585	0.262977	-5.26%	–	pending	–	–	2.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.24885	0.237275	-4.65%	–	pending	–	–	2.32
2026-10-18	oos	0.21966	0.211318	-3.80%	–	pending	–	–	2.35
2026-10-17	oos	0.23107	0.222088	-3.89%	–	pending	–	–	2.35
2026-10-16	oos	0.28208	0.266968	-5.36%	–	pending	–	–	2.32
2026-10-15	oos	0.279945	0.263961	-5.71%	0.28138	+0.51%	0.0051	✓	2.33
2026-10-14	oos	0.27437	0.258344	-5.84%	0.276795	+0.88%	0.0369	✓	2.33
2026-10-13	oos	0.297375	0.272366	-8.41%	0.277585	-6.65%	0.0235	✓	2.31
2026-10-12	oos	0.198445	0.192802	-2.84%	0.24885	+25.40%	0.2527	✗	2.16
2026-10-11	oos	0.23632	0.223641	-5.37%	0.21966	-7.05%	0.0236	✓	2.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.20848	0.201735	-3.24%	0.23107	+10.84%	0.1737	✗	2.04
2026-10-09	oos	0.20578	0.200454	-2.59%	0.28208	+37.08%	0.3676	✗	2.04
2026-10-08	oos	0.19801	0.195742	-1.15%	0.279945	+41.38%	0.3471	✗	2.03
2026-10-07	oos	0.22919	0.222759	-2.81%	0.27437	+19.71%	0.2490	✗	1.96
2026-10-06	oos	0.24363	0.234264	-3.84%	0.297375	+22.06%	0.2954	✗	1.96
2026-10-05	oos	0.266405	0.252118	-5.36%	0.198445	-25.51%	0.1463	✓	1.94
2026-10-04	oos	0.28781	0.267928	-6.91%	0.23632	-17.89%	0.0617	✓	1.92
2026-10-03	oos	0.290305	0.272194	-6.24%	0.20848	-28.19%	0.2243	✓	1.94
2026-10-02	oos	0.27341	0.260657	-4.66%	0.20578	-24.74%	0.1907	✓	1.95
2026-10-01	oos	0.29989	0.281013	-6.29%	0.19801	-33.97%	0.2773	✓	1.92
2026-09-30	oos	0.40591	0.366362	-9.74%	0.22919	-43.54%	0.4622	✓	2.04
2026-09-29	oos	0.39374	0.354346	-10.01%	0.24363	-38.12%	0.4206	✓	2.05
2026-09-28	oos	0.291185	0.277911	-4.56%	0.266405	-8.51%	0.0988	✓	2.08
2026-09-27	oos	0.31507	0.296095	-6.02%	0.28781	-8.65%	0.0776	✓	2.06
2026-09-26	oos	0.36447	0.336088	-7.79%	0.290305	-20.35%	0.1542	✓	2.03
2026-09-25	oos	0.33586	0.313881	-6.54%	0.27341	-18.59%	0.1480	✓	2.04
2026-09-24	oos	0.33996	0.316812	-6.81%	0.29989	-11.79%	0.0660	✓	2.04
2026-09-23	oos	0.39528	0.361926	-8.44%	0.40591	+2.69%	0.1343	✗	2.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.482965	0.427063	-11.57%	0.39374	-18.47%	0.0258	✓	1.84
2026-09-21	oos	0.55709	0.483094	-13.28%	0.291185	-47.73%	0.4407	✓	1.78
2026-09-20	oos	0.46212	0.423115	-8.44%	0.31507	-31.82%	0.3585	✓	1.60
2026-09-19	oos	0.485615	0.441614	-9.06%	0.36447	-24.95%	0.2527	✓	1.58
2026-09-18	oos	0.58476	0.516347	-11.70%	0.33586	-42.56%	0.4911	✓	1.56
2026-09-17	oos	0.47322	0.439164	-7.20%	0.33996	-28.16%	0.3824	✓	1.26
2026-09-16	oos	0.37378	0.364407	-2.51%	0.39528	+5.75%	0.0511	✓	1.29
2026-09-15	oos	0.318955	0.321938	+0.94%	0.482965	+51.42%	0.2385	✓	1.27
2026-09-14	oos	0.37084	0.369779	-0.29%	0.55709	+50.22%	0.3027	✗	1.05
2026-09-13	oos	0.379015	0.379469	+0.12%	0.46212	+21.93%	0.1378	✓	1.07
2026-09-12	oos	0.353985	0.359965	+1.69%	0.485615	+37.19%	0.2431	✓	1.12
2026-09-11	oos	0.382085	0.386331	+1.11%	0.58476	+53.04%	0.3635	✓	1.10
2026-09-10	oos	0.396465	0.397671	+0.30%	0.47322	+19.36%	0.1767	✓	1.11
2026-09-09	oos	0.41882	0.409871	-2.14%	0.37378	-10.75%	0.0645	✓	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.50196	0.469134	-6.54%	0.318955	-36.46%	0.3486	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.55791	0.505669	-9.36%	0.37084	-33.53%	0.2985	✓	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.679235	0.618876	-8.89%	0.379015	-44.20%	0.4453	✓	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.790295	0.724343	-8.35%	0.353985	-55.21%	0.6833	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.63101	0.577702	-8.45%	0.382085	-39.45%	0.3820	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.76968	0.715303	-7.06%	0.396465	-48.49%	0.5302	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.838135	0.77711	-7.28%	0.41882	-50.03%	0.6307	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.87428	0.806526	-7.75%	0.50196	-42.59%	0.4877	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.91438	0.817635	-10.58%	0.55791	-38.98%	0.3889	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.52462	0.482257	-8.08%	0.679235	+29.47%	0.3086	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.32435	0.307861	-5.08%	0.790295	+143.66%	0.9225	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.24126	0.227847	-5.56%	0.63101	+161.55%	0.9953	✗	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.26469	0.253317	-4.30%	0.76968	+190.79%	1.0991	✗	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.37223	0.343345	-7.76%	0.838135	+125.17%	0.9144	✗	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.15754	0.14891	-5.48%	0.87428	+454.96%	1.7845	✗	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.19865	0.187532	-5.60%	0.91438	+360.30%	1.5896	✗	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.1409	0.131625	-6.58%	0.52462	+272.33%	1.3835	✗	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.0851	0.078529	-7.72%	0.32435	+281.14%	1.4032	✗	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.1107	0.104459	-5.64%	0.24126	+117.94%	0.8433	✗	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.1054	0.091229	-13.45%	0.26469	+151.13%	0.9703	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.