UPROBINHOOD

? · · beta_5y

token id: #949
symbol: UPROBINHOOD
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-11
predictions: 192

Track record at +30d

assessed

34

of 64 predictions shown

direction hit

91.2%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.6379

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.1082

actual -0.3130

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.28138	0.255021	-9.37%	–	pending	–	–	2.34
2026-10-21	oos	0.281425	0.254809	-9.46%	–	pending	–	–	2.34
2026-10-20	oos	0.277585	0.250025	-9.93%	–	pending	–	–	2.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.24885	0.223491	-10.19%	–	pending	–	–	2.32
2026-10-18	oos	0.21966	0.196802	-10.41%	–	pending	–	–	2.35
2026-10-17	oos	0.23107	0.206916	-10.45%	–	pending	–	–	2.35
2026-10-16	oos	0.28208	0.250429	-11.22%	–	pending	–	–	2.32
2026-10-15	oos	0.279945	0.247301	-11.66%	–	pending	–	–	2.33
2026-10-14	oos	0.27437	0.241849	-11.85%	–	pending	–	–	2.33
2026-10-13	oos	0.297375	0.257546	-13.39%	–	pending	–	–	2.31
2026-10-12	oos	0.198445	0.180126	-9.23%	–	pending	–	–	2.16
2026-10-11	oos	0.23632	0.210037	-11.12%	–	pending	–	–	2.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.20848	0.188113	-9.77%	–	pending	–	–	2.04
2026-10-09	oos	0.20578	0.185599	-9.81%	–	pending	–	–	2.04
2026-10-08	oos	0.19801	0.178627	-9.79%	–	pending	–	–	2.03
2026-10-07	oos	0.22919	0.204224	-10.89%	–	pending	–	–	1.96
2026-10-06	oos	0.24363	0.21272	-12.69%	–	pending	–	–	1.96
2026-10-05	oos	0.266405	0.229929	-13.69%	–	pending	–	–	1.94
2026-10-04	oos	0.28781	0.244742	-14.96%	–	pending	–	–	1.92
2026-10-03	oos	0.290305	0.24782	-14.63%	–	pending	–	–	1.94
2026-10-02	oos	0.27341	0.233777	-14.50%	–	pending	–	–	1.95
2026-10-01	oos	0.29989	0.253119	-15.60%	–	pending	–	–	1.92
2026-09-30	oos	0.40591	0.344666	-15.09%	–	pending	–	–	2.04
2026-09-29	oos	0.39374	0.331023	-15.93%	–	pending	–	–	2.05
2026-09-28	oos	0.291185	0.245924	-15.54%	–	pending	–	–	2.08
2026-09-27	oos	0.31507	0.261049	-17.15%	–	pending	–	–	2.06
2026-09-26	oos	0.36447	0.301547	-17.26%	–	pending	–	–	2.03
2026-09-25	oos	0.33586	0.275713	-17.91%	–	pending	–	–	2.04
2026-09-24	oos	0.33996	0.278043	-18.21%	–	pending	–	–	2.04
2026-09-23	oos	0.39528	0.32853	-16.89%	–	pending	–	–	2.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.482965	0.407645	-15.60%	0.28138	-41.74%	0.3280	✓	1.84
2026-09-21	oos	0.55709	0.475158	-14.71%	0.281425	-49.48%	0.4702	✓	1.78
2026-09-20	oos	0.46212	0.39285	-14.99%	0.277585	-39.93%	0.3819	✓	1.60
2026-09-19	oos	0.485615	0.412338	-15.09%	0.24885	-48.76%	0.5167	✓	1.58
2026-09-18	oos	0.58476	0.492285	-15.81%	0.21966	-62.44%	0.8287	✓	1.56
2026-09-17	oos	0.47322	0.407597	-13.87%	0.23107	-51.17%	0.6482	✓	1.26
2026-09-16	oos	0.37378	0.32904	-11.97%	0.28208	-24.53%	0.2416	✓	1.29
2026-09-15	oos	0.318955	0.277952	-12.86%	0.279945	-12.23%	0.0983	✓	1.27
2026-09-14	oos	0.37084	0.320808	-13.49%	0.27437	-26.01%	0.2008	✓	1.05
2026-09-13	oos	0.379015	0.325516	-14.12%	0.297375	-21.54%	0.1751	✓	1.07
2026-09-12	oos	0.353985	0.296296	-16.30%	0.198445	-43.94%	0.4641	✓	1.12
2026-09-11	oos	0.382085	0.317594	-16.88%	0.23632	-38.15%	0.3841	✓	1.10
2026-09-10	oos	0.396465	0.326952	-17.53%	0.20848	-47.42%	0.5385	✓	1.11
2026-09-09	oos	0.41882	0.344973	-17.63%	0.20578	-50.87%	0.5697	✓	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.50196	0.424108	-15.51%	0.19801	-60.55%	0.8022	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.55791	0.479029	-14.14%	0.22919	-58.92%	0.7887	✓	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.679235	0.592753	-12.73%	0.24363	-64.13%	0.9519	✓	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.790295	0.688507	-12.88%	0.266405	-66.29%	1.0210	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.63101	0.55804	-11.56%	0.28781	-54.39%	0.7444	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.76968	0.682401	-11.34%	0.290305	-62.28%	0.8966	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.838135	0.727495	-13.20%	0.27341	-67.38%	1.0677	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.87428	0.754288	-13.72%	0.29989	-65.70%	1.0143	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.91438	0.775563	-15.18%	0.40591	-55.61%	0.7091	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.52462	0.470312	-10.35%	0.39374	-24.95%	0.2518	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.32435	0.308676	-4.83%	0.291185	-10.23%	0.1230	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.24126	0.236407	-2.01%	0.31507	+30.59%	0.2056	✗	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.26469	0.262469	-0.84%	0.36447	+37.70%	0.2780	✗	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.37223	0.351964	-5.44%	0.33586	-9.77%	0.1090	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.15754	0.162617	+3.22%	0.33996	+115.79%	0.6655	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.19865	0.204198	+2.79%	0.39528	+98.98%	0.5944	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.1409	0.146555	+4.01%	0.482965	+242.77%	1.0891	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.0851	0.085899	+0.94%	0.55709	+554.63%	1.7528	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.1107	0.11617	+4.94%	0.46212	+317.45%	1.3452	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.1054	0.104318	-1.03%	0.485615	+360.74%	1.4313	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.