UPROBINHOOD

? · · beta_5y

token id: #949
symbol: UPROBINHOOD
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-11
predictions: 192

Track record at +1d

assessed

63

of 64 predictions shown

direction hit

58.7%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1456

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0111

actual +0.0130

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	0.28138	0.278514	-1.02%	–	pending	–	–	2.34
2026-10-21	oos	0.276795	0.274107	-0.97%	0.28138	-0.02%	0.0042	✓	2.34
2026-10-20	oos	0.277585	0.274451	-1.13%	0.276795	-0.28%	0.0154	✗	2.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.24885	0.246575	-0.91%	0.277585	+11.55%	0.0875	✗	2.32
2026-10-18	oos	0.21966	0.218406	-0.57%	0.24885	+13.29%	0.1353	✗	2.35
2026-10-17	oos	0.23107	0.229739	-0.58%	0.21966	-4.94%	0.0629	✓	2.35
2026-10-16	oos	0.28208	0.279241	-1.01%	0.23107	-18.08%	0.1860	✓	2.32
2026-10-15	oos	0.279945	0.276977	-1.06%	0.28208	+0.76%	0.0361	✗	2.33
2026-10-14	oos	0.27437	0.271391	-1.09%	0.279945	+2.03%	0.0151	✗	2.33
2026-10-13	oos	0.297375	0.290829	-2.20%	0.27437	-7.74%	0.0151	✓	2.31
2026-10-12	oos	0.198445	0.197943	-0.25%	0.297375	+49.85%	0.3714	✗	2.16
2026-10-11	oos	0.23632	0.234241	-0.88%	0.198445	-16.03%	0.1176	✓	2.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.20848	0.207793	-0.33%	0.23632	+13.35%	0.1098	✗	2.04
2026-10-09	oos	0.20578	0.205383	-0.19%	0.20848	+1.31%	0.0059	✗	2.04
2026-10-08	oos	0.19801	0.198229	+0.11%	0.20578	+3.92%	0.0163	✓	2.03
2026-10-07	oos	0.22919	0.228747	-0.19%	0.19801	-13.60%	0.1067	✓	1.96
2026-10-06	oos	0.24363	0.242827	-0.33%	0.22919	-5.93%	0.0051	✓	1.96
2026-10-05	oos	0.266405	0.264709	-0.64%	0.24363	-8.55%	0.0782	✓	1.94
2026-10-04	oos	0.28781	0.285045	-0.96%	0.266405	-7.44%	0.0507	✓	1.92
2026-10-03	oos	0.290305	0.287748	-0.88%	0.28781	-0.86%	0.0398	✓	1.94
2026-10-02	oos	0.27341	0.272112	-0.47%	0.290305	+6.18%	0.0593	✗	1.95
2026-10-01	oos	0.29989	0.297703	-0.73%	0.27341	-8.83%	0.0773	✓	1.92
2026-09-30	oos	0.40591	0.399015	-1.70%	0.29989	-26.12%	0.3168	✓	2.04
2026-09-29	oos	0.39374	0.385889	-1.99%	0.40591	+3.09%	0.0526	✗	2.05
2026-09-28	oos	0.291185	0.289885	-0.45%	0.39374	+35.22%	0.3017	✗	2.08
2026-09-27	oos	0.31507	0.312883	-0.69%	0.291185	-7.58%	0.0472	✓	2.06
2026-09-26	oos	0.36447	0.360441	-1.11%	0.31507	-13.55%	0.1356	✓	2.03
2026-09-25	oos	0.33586	0.333277	-0.77%	0.36447	+8.52%	0.0817	✗	2.04
2026-09-24	oos	0.33996	0.337477	-0.73%	0.33586	-1.21%	0.0023	✓	2.04
2026-09-23	oos	0.39528	0.391303	-1.01%	0.33996	-14.00%	0.1408	✓	2.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.482965	0.474989	-1.65%	0.39528	-18.16%	0.1445	✓	1.84
2026-09-21	oos	0.55709	0.543679	-2.41%	0.482965	-13.31%	0.1103	✓	1.78
2026-09-20	oos	0.46212	0.456989	-1.11%	0.55709	+20.55%	0.0946	✗	1.60
2026-09-19	oos	0.485615	0.479745	-1.21%	0.46212	-4.84%	0.0360	✓	1.58
2026-09-18	oos	0.58476	0.57062	-2.42%	0.485615	-16.95%	0.1682	✓	1.56
2026-09-17	oos	0.47322	0.466733	-1.37%	0.58476	+23.57%	0.1527	✗	1.26
2026-09-16	oos	0.37378	0.372914	-0.23%	0.47322	+26.60%	0.2348	✗	1.29
2026-09-15	oos	0.318955	0.320353	+0.44%	0.37378	+17.19%	0.1448	✓	1.27
2026-09-14	oos	0.37084	0.37175	+0.25%	0.318955	-13.99%	0.1179	✗	1.05
2026-09-13	oos	0.379015	0.37988	+0.23%	0.37084	-2.16%	0.0431	✗	1.07
2026-09-12	oos	0.353985	0.355795	+0.51%	0.379015	+7.07%	0.0700	✓	1.12
2026-09-11	oos	0.382085	0.383491	+0.37%	0.353985	-7.35%	0.0808	✗	1.10
2026-09-10	oos	0.396465	0.397258	+0.20%	0.382085	-3.63%	0.0486	✗	1.11
2026-09-09	oos	0.41882	0.41803	-0.19%	0.396465	-5.34%	0.0304	✓	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.50196	0.496946	-1.00%	0.41882	-16.56%	0.1689	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.55791	0.549647	-1.48%	0.50196	-10.03%	0.0826	✓	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.679235	0.668529	-1.58%	0.55791	-17.86%	0.1652	✓	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.790295	0.774934	-1.94%	0.679235	-14.05%	0.1381	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.63101	0.622004	-1.43%	0.790295	+25.24%	0.2375	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.76968	0.758744	-1.42%	0.63101	-18.02%	0.1646	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.838135	0.82462	-1.61%	0.76968	-8.17%	0.1189	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.87428	0.85516	-2.19%	0.838135	-4.13%	0.0189	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.91438	0.878025	-3.98%	0.87428	-4.39%	0.0107	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.52462	0.510001	-2.79%	0.91438	+74.29%	0.5723	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.32435	0.319258	-1.57%	0.52462	+61.75%	0.5040	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.24126	0.238548	-1.12%	0.32435	+34.44%	0.3022	✗	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.26469	0.261808	-1.09%	0.24126	-8.85%	0.0509	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.37223	0.359503	-3.42%	0.26469	-28.89%	0.3218	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.15754	0.15565	-1.20%	0.37223	+136.28%	0.8656	✗	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.19865	0.194219	-2.23%	0.15754	-20.69%	0.2035	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.1409	0.137712	-2.26%	0.19865	+40.99%	0.3504	✗	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.0851	0.084094	-1.18%	0.1409	+65.57%	0.5074	✗	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.1107	0.109429	-1.15%	0.0851	-23.13%	0.2351	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.1054	0.103231	-2.06%	0.1107	+5.03%	0.0004	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.