UMX

UMX · · beta_5y

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 204

Track record at +7d

assessed

61

of 68 predictions shown

direction hit

63.9%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0777

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0105

actual -0.0783

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.041845	0.041749	-0.23%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.03934	0.039251	-0.23%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.04282	-0.22%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.054755	-0.72%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.055133	-0.49%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.055511	-0.61%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.05867	-0.72%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.058707	-0.57%	0.041845	-29.13%	0.3461	✓	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.058997	-0.58%	0.03934	-33.70%	0.4140	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.05922	-0.34%	0.042915	-27.78%	0.3214	✓	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.060094	-0.54%	0.05515	-8.72%	0.0862	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.060083	-0.20%	0.055405	-7.97%	0.0739	✓	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.060463	-0.34%	0.05585	-7.94%	0.0729	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.060648	-0.49%	0.059095	-3.04%	0.0215	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.059894	-1.05%	0.059045	-2.45%	0.0161	✓	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.061015	-1.31%	0.05934	-4.02%	0.0205	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.061054	-1.07%	0.05942	-3.72%	0.0155	✓	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.060561	-1.83%	0.06042	-2.06%	0.0174	✓	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.060661	-1.70%	0.060205	-2.44%	0.0068	✓	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.06019	-1.96%	0.06067	-1.18%	0.0170	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.060486	-1.97%	0.060945	-1.22%	0.0173	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.06043	-1.71%	0.06053	-1.55%	0.0179	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.060178	-1.97%	0.061825	+0.71%	0.0284	✗	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.060129	-1.77%	0.061715	+0.83%	0.0165	✓	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.059586	-1.70%	0.06169	+1.77%	0.0231	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.059859	-1.45%	0.06171	+1.60%	0.0196	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.060176	-1.45%	0.061395	+0.55%	0.0183	✗	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.060047	-1.43%	0.0617	+1.29%	0.0249	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.060357	-1.33%	0.06148	+0.51%	0.0158	✗	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.060378	-1.30%	0.06139	+0.36%	0.0214	✗	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.06016	-0.95%	0.06121	+0.78%	0.0338	✗	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.060659	-0.84%	0.060615	-0.91%	0.0201	✗	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.060403	-1.68%	0.06074	-1.13%	0.0163	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.059551	-1.50%	0.06106	+0.99%	0.0033	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.060427	-1.54%	0.060915	-0.74%	0.0141	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.059802	-2.20%	0.06117	+0.03%	0.0289	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.060642	-2.21%	0.06117	-1.35%	0.0444	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.059669	-1.96%	0.060735	-0.21%	0.0487	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.059642	-1.45%	0.06117	+1.07%	0.0420	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.059866	-1.50%	0.061435	+1.09%	0.0089	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.061678	-1.47%	0.06046	-3.41%	0.0524	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.06401	-1.59%	0.06137	-5.65%	0.0723	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.06401	-1.61%	0.06115	-6.01%	0.0441	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.064171	-1.06%	0.06201	-4.39%	0.0132	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.065822	-1.01%	0.06086	-8.47%	0.0494	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.067519	-0.80%	0.06052	-11.08%	0.0999	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.069626	-0.44%	0.060775	-13.09%	0.0962	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.071604	-0.38%	0.062595	-12.91%	0.1018	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.07192	-0.21%	0.065045	-9.75%	0.0690	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.073481	+0.48%	0.06506	-11.04%	0.0618	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.073953	-0.39%	0.06486	-12.63%	0.1438	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.074255	-0.17%	0.066495	-10.60%	0.1238	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.075138	+0.25%	0.068065	-9.19%	0.1056	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.075825	+0.05%	0.06993	-7.73%	0.1148	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.075373	+0.32%	0.071875	-4.33%	0.0677	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.076534	+0.27%	0.07207	-5.58%	0.0834	✗	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.077694	+0.95%	0.07313	-4.98%	0.0728	✗	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.082662	+0.60%	0.07424	-9.65%	0.0855	✗	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.083979	+0.51%	0.07438	-10.98%	0.1069	✗	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.089179	+0.53%	0.07495	-15.51%	0.1685	✗	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.087026	+0.35%	0.07579	-12.60%	0.1374	✗	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.086932	+0.26%	0.07513	-13.35%	0.1611	✗	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.08401	+0.66%	0.07633	-8.54%	0.0896	✗	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.082166	-0.72%	0.07696	-7.01%	0.1603	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.083066	-2.11%	0.08217	-3.17%	0.1422	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.081493	-4.07%	0.08355	-1.65%	0.1690	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.081154	-4.13%	0.08871	+4.80%	0.1139	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.080592	-4.58%	0.08672	+2.68%	0.1394	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.