UMX

UMX · · beta_5y

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 204

Track record at +30d

assessed

38

of 68 predictions shown

direction hit

100.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1387

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.1695

actual -0.2616

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	0.041845	0.041055	-1.89%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.0466	0.045144	-3.13%	–	pending	–	–	0.19
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.041918	-2.32%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.052805	-4.25%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.053154	-4.06%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.053431	-4.33%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.056479	-4.43%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.056977	-3.50%	–	pending	–	–	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.05742	-3.24%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.058822	-1.01%	–	pending	–	–	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.059278	-1.89%	–	pending	–	–	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.060495	+0.48%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.060604	-0.11%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.060556	-0.64%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.059239	-2.13%	–	pending	–	–	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.060283	-2.49%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.060737	-1.59%	–	pending	–	–	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.059093	-4.21%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.059707	-3.25%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.058527	-4.67%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.058883	-4.57%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.059228	-3.66%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.058306	-5.02%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.058271	-4.80%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.057651	-4.89%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.05829	-4.03%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.058239	-4.62%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.057637	-5.38%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.057668	-5.72%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.05723	-6.44%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.057459	-5.39%	0.041845	-31.10%	0.3044	✓	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.057555	-5.91%	0.0466	-23.82%	0.1851	✓	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.054357	-11.52%	0.042915	-30.15%	0.2483	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.053266	-11.90%	0.05515	-8.78%	0.0306	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.053485	-12.85%	0.055405	-9.72%	0.0274	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.05215	-14.72%	0.05585	-8.67%	0.0357	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.052444	-15.43%	0.059095	-4.70%	0.0843	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.05147	-15.43%	0.059045	-2.98%	0.0954	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.051212	-15.38%	0.05934	-1.95%	0.1194	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.051234	-15.70%	0.05942	-2.23%	0.0985	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.052451	-16.21%	0.06042	-3.47%	0.1050	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.054062	-16.88%	0.060205	-7.44%	0.0552	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.054041	-16.94%	0.06067	-6.75%	0.0644	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.054281	-16.31%	0.060945	-6.04%	0.0754	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.055583	-16.41%	0.06053	-8.97%	0.0537	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.05691	-16.39%	0.061825	-9.17%	0.0408	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.058875	-15.81%	0.061715	-11.75%	0.0083	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.060083	-16.41%	0.06169	-14.17%	0.0451	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.06034	-16.28%	0.06171	-14.37%	0.0598	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.061935	-15.31%	0.061395	-16.05%	0.0507	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.061125	-17.67%	0.0617	-16.89%	0.0797	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.061239	-17.67%	0.06148	-17.34%	0.0880	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.062116	-17.12%	0.06139	-18.09%	0.0734	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.062486	-17.55%	0.06121	-19.24%	0.0947	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.062399	-16.94%	0.060615	-19.32%	0.0936	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.063147	-17.27%	0.06074	-20.42%	0.1205	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.064369	-16.36%	0.06106	-20.66%	0.1031	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.067284	-18.12%	0.060915	-25.87%	0.1616	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.068018	-18.59%	0.06117	-26.79%	0.1781	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.071742	-19.13%	0.06117	-31.04%	0.2255	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.070361	-18.86%	0.060735	-29.96%	0.2505	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.070776	-18.38%	0.06117	-29.45%	0.2626	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.070042	-16.08%	0.061435	-26.39%	0.1667	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.069372	-16.18%	0.06046	-26.95%	0.2442	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.0711	-16.21%	0.06137	-27.68%	0.3016	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.072373	-14.81%	0.06115	-28.02%	0.3343	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.072921	-13.86%	0.06201	-26.75%	0.3284	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.073778	-12.65%	0.06086	-27.94%	0.3772	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.