UMX

UMX · · beta_5y

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 204

Track record at +1d

assessed

67

of 68 predictions shown

direction hit

61.2%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0229

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0076

actual -0.0116

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	0.041845	0.041734	-0.27%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.0466	0.046461	-0.30%	0.041845	+6.37%	0.0643	✗	0.19
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.042825	-0.21%	0.0466	+8.59%	0.0851	✗	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.054718	-0.78%	0.042915	-22.18%	0.2468	✓	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.055143	-0.47%	0.05515	-0.46%	0.0007	✓	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.055597	-0.45%	0.055405	-0.80%	0.0057	✓	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.058799	-0.50%	0.05585	-5.49%	0.0510	✓	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.058786	-0.44%	0.059095	+0.08%	0.0075	✗	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.059058	-0.48%	0.059045	-0.50%	0.0022	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.059159	-0.44%	0.05934	-0.13%	0.0090	✗	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.060134	-0.47%	0.05942	-1.66%	0.0171	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.059945	-0.43%	0.06042	+0.36%	0.0161	✗	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.060386	-0.47%	0.060205	-0.77%	0.0062	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.060644	-0.49%	0.06067	-0.45%	0.0011	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.060244	-0.47%	0.060945	+0.69%	0.0080	✗	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.061515	-0.50%	0.06053	-2.09%	0.0093	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.061461	-0.41%	0.061825	+0.18%	0.0167	✗	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.061353	-0.55%	0.061715	+0.04%	0.0069	✗	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.061373	-0.55%	0.06169	-0.03%	0.0089	✗	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.061012	-0.62%	0.06171	+0.51%	0.0029	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.061301	-0.65%	0.061395	-0.49%	0.0004	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.061161	-0.52%	0.0617	+0.36%	0.0105	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.061002	-0.63%	0.06148	+0.15%	0.0014	✓	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.060921	-0.47%	0.06139	+0.29%	0.0081	✗	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.06032	-0.49%	0.06121	+0.98%	0.0137	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.060454	-0.47%	0.060615	-0.21%	0.0081	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.060776	-0.47%	0.06074	-0.52%	0.0008	✓	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.060605	-0.51%	0.06106	+0.24%	0.0057	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.060825	-0.56%	0.060915	-0.42%	0.0031	✓	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.060794	-0.61%	0.06117	+0.00%	0.0061	✓	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.060398	-0.56%	0.06117	+0.72%	0.0244	✗	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.060795	-0.61%	0.060735	-0.71%	0.0016	✓	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.060915	-0.85%	0.06117	-0.43%	0.0314	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.059956	-0.83%	0.061435	+1.61%	0.0249	✗	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.06083	-0.88%	0.06046	-1.48%	0.0086	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.060619	-0.87%	0.06137	+0.36%	0.0173	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.061421	-0.95%	0.06115	-1.39%	0.0058	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.060345	-0.85%	0.06201	+1.89%	0.0235	✗	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.060014	-0.84%	0.06086	+0.56%	0.0361	✗	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.060309	-0.77%	0.06052	-0.42%	0.0077	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.06207	-0.84%	0.060775	-2.91%	0.0172	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.064419	-0.96%	0.062595	-3.77%	0.0292	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.064444	-0.95%	0.065045	-0.02%	0.0037	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.064268	-0.91%	0.06506	+0.31%	0.0294	✗	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.065855	-0.96%	0.06486	-2.46%	0.0136	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.067323	-1.09%	0.066495	-2.31%	0.0057	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.069192	-1.06%	0.068065	-2.67%	0.0026	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.071045	-1.15%	0.06993	-2.71%	0.0222	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.071292	-1.08%	0.071875	-0.27%	0.0062	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.072333	-1.09%	0.07207	-1.45%	0.0161	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.073424	-1.10%	0.07313	-1.50%	0.0539	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.073546	-1.12%	0.07424	-0.19%	0.0106	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.074095	-1.14%	0.07438	-0.76%	0.0188	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.074923	-1.14%	0.07495	-1.11%	0.0111	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.074327	-1.07%	0.07579	+0.88%	0.0268	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.07551	-1.07%	0.07513	-1.57%	0.0101	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.076143	-1.06%	0.07633	-0.82%	0.0333	✗	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.08115	-1.24%	0.07696	-6.34%	0.0687	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.082505	-1.25%	0.08217	-1.65%	0.0104	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.087401	-1.48%	0.08355	-5.82%	0.0393	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.085542	-1.36%	0.08871	+2.29%	0.0204	✗	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.085558	-1.33%	0.08672	+0.01%	0.0048	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.08255	-1.09%	0.08671	+3.89%	0.0655	✗	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.082074	-0.83%	0.08346	+0.85%	0.0535	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.0842	-0.78%	0.08276	-2.47%	0.0694	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.084487	-0.54%	0.08486	-0.11%	0.0646	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.084241	-0.48%	0.08495	+0.35%	0.0052	✗	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.084164	-0.35%	0.08465	+0.22%	0.0200	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.