TMX
TermMax · Ethereum · beta_5y
- token id
- #846
- symbol
- TMX
- variant
- –
- chain
- Ethereum
- address
- 0x3c2f61f2e27c865981d2e7aaf6b2cdf823030039
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-08-25
- predictions
- 150
Track record at +1d
assessed
49
of 50 predictions shown
direction hit
36.7%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.1103
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
+0.0008
actual -0.0500
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | live | 0.01012 | 0.010058 | -0.62% | – | pending | – | – | 3.22 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.00942 | 0.009372 | -0.51% | 0.01012 | +2.02% | 0.0178 | ✗ | 3.14 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.00918 | 0.009135 | -0.49% | 0.00942 | +2.61% | 0.0400 | ✗ | 3.16 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.00918 | 0.009127 | -0.58% | 0.00918 | +0.00% | 0.0362 | ✓ | 3.15 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.008945 | 0.008895 | -0.55% | 0.00918 | +2.63% | 0.0380 | ✗ | 3.16 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.008375 | 0.008343 | -0.38% | 0.008945 | +6.81% | 0.0458 | ✗ | 3.13 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.007985 | 0.007968 | -0.22% | 0.008375 | +4.88% | 0.0544 | ✗ | 3.14 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.00795 | 0.00794 | -0.13% | 0.007985 | +0.44% | 0.0299 | ✗ | 3.18 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.00869 | 0.008672 | -0.21% | 0.00795 | -8.52% | 0.1087 | ✓ | 3.20 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.010375 | 0.010324 | -0.49% | 0.00869 | -16.24% | 0.1139 | ✓ | 3.13 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.01041 | 0.010361 | -0.47% | 0.010375 | -0.34% | 0.0502 | ✓ | 3.13 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.01259 | 0.012443 | -1.17% | 0.01041 | -17.32% | 0.1071 | ✓ | 3.04 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.011045 | 0.010972 | -0.66% | 0.01259 | +13.99% | 0.1101 | ✗ | 2.97 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.010635 | 0.010586 | -0.46% | 0.011045 | +3.86% | 0.0294 | ✗ | 2.95 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.010685 | 0.010637 | -0.45% | 0.010635 | -0.47% | 0.0306 | ✓ | 2.94 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.01237 | 0.012266 | -0.84% | 0.010685 | -13.62% | 0.0823 | ✓ | 2.90 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.012635 | 0.012533 | -0.81% | 0.01237 | -2.10% | 0.0706 | ✗ | 3.12 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.014305 | 0.014118 | -1.31% | 0.012635 | -11.67% | 0.1034 | ✓ | 3.11 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.01564 | 0.015217 | -2.70% | 0.014305 | -8.54% | 0.0345 | ✓ | 3.11 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.011575 | 0.011493 | -0.71% | 0.01564 | +35.12% | 0.2516 | ✗ | 2.74 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.0112 | 0.011118 | -0.73% | 0.011575 | +3.35% | 0.0326 | ✗ | 2.74 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.01535 | 0.014963 | -2.52% | 0.0112 | -27.04% | 0.2789 | ✓ | 2.64 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.00878 | 0.008863 | +0.94% | 0.01535 | +74.83% | 0.5168 | ✓ | 2.12 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.008885 | 0.008987 | +1.15% | 0.00878 | -1.18% | 0.0212 | ✗ | 2.13 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.008805 | 0.008928 | +1.39% | 0.008885 | +0.91% | 0.0094 | ✓ | 2.13 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.01078 | 0.010878 | +0.91% | 0.008805 | -18.32% | 0.1870 | ✗ | 2.04 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.012155 | 0.012255 | +0.82% | 0.01078 | -11.31% | 0.1293 | ✗ | 2.04 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.011725 | 0.011855 | +1.10% | 0.012155 | +3.67% | 0.0173 | ✓ | 2.03 |
| 2026-09-24 | oos | 0.01571 | 0.015804 | +0.60% | 0.011725 | -25.37% | 0.2918 | ✗ | 1.95 |
| 2026-09-23 | oos | 0.01868 | 0.01876 | +0.43% | 0.01571 | -15.90% | 0.1775 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-22 | oos | 0.02111 | 0.021156 | +0.22% | 0.01868 | -11.51% | 0.1031 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-21 | oos | 0.02088 | 0.020952 | +0.34% | 0.02111 | +1.10% | 0.0121 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-20 | oos | 0.02122 | 0.02132 | +0.47% | 0.02088 | -1.60% | 0.0857 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-19 | oos | 0.02048 | 0.020612 | +0.65% | 0.02122 | +3.61% | 0.0300 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-18 | oos | 0.02102 | 0.021176 | +0.74% | 0.02048 | -2.57% | 0.0378 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-17 | oos | 0.022235 | 0.022415 | +0.81% | 0.02102 | -5.46% | 0.1218 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | oos | 0.02379 | 0.023992 | +0.85% | 0.022235 | -6.54% | 0.0787 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | oos | 0.026725 | 0.026937 | +0.80% | 0.02379 | -10.98% | 0.1316 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | oos | 0.032755 | 0.032922 | +0.51% | 0.026725 | -18.41% | 0.1748 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | oos | 0.02957 | 0.029825 | +0.86% | 0.032755 | +10.77% | 0.0760 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | oos | 0.03304 | 0.033306 | +0.80% | 0.02957 | -10.50% | 0.1130 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | oos | 0.03 | 0.030307 | +1.02% | 0.03304 | +10.13% | 0.0856 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | oos | 0.030845 | 0.031177 | +1.08% | 0.03 | -2.74% | 0.0472 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | oos | 0.036275 | 0.036689 | +1.14% | 0.030845 | -14.97% | 0.1509 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | oos | 0.04783 | 0.048358 | +1.10% | 0.036275 | -24.16% | 0.2854 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | oos | 0.055525 | 0.056105 | +1.05% | 0.04783 | -13.86% | 0.1514 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | oos | 0.078715 | 0.079078 | +0.46% | 0.055525 | -29.46% | 0.3380 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | oos | 0.094865 | 0.094981 | +0.12% | 0.078715 | -17.02% | 0.1942 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | oos | 0.0947 | 0.094949 | +0.26% | 0.094865 | +0.17% | 0.0028 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | oos | 0.11449 | 0.114356 | -0.12% | 0.0947 | -17.29% | 0.1689 | ✓ | 1.00 |