PROS

Pharos · native · beta_5y

token id: #473
symbol: PROS
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-28
predictions: 507

Track record at +7d

assessed

162

of 169 predictions shown

direction hit

60.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0921

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0197

actual -0.0041

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	0.59875	0.579871	-3.15%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-21	oos	0.62925	0.608302	-3.33%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-20	oos	0.6195	0.599747	-3.19%	–	pending	–	–	0.67
2026-10-19	oos	0.63415	0.612997	-3.34%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-18	oos	0.6322	0.610946	-3.36%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-10-17	oos	0.6148	0.59609	-3.04%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-16	oos	0.6534	0.628008	-3.89%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-15	oos	0.59205	0.575772	-2.75%	0.59875	+1.13%	0.0224	✓	0.66
2026-10-14	oos	0.58455	0.569923	-2.50%	0.62925	+7.65%	0.0899	✗	0.66
2026-10-13	oos	0.62335	0.605515	-2.86%	0.6195	-0.62%	0.0241	✓	0.62
2026-10-12	oos	0.6167	0.599429	-2.80%	0.63415	+2.83%	0.0556	✗	0.62
2026-10-11	oos	0.6777	0.656008	-3.20%	0.6322	-6.71%	0.0268	✓	0.50
2026-10-10	oos	0.67945	0.657491	-3.23%	0.6148	-9.52%	0.0570	✓	0.55
2026-10-09	oos	0.6611	0.641509	-2.96%	0.6534	-1.16%	0.0253	✓	0.55
2026-10-08	oos	0.6411	0.623397	-2.76%	0.59205	-7.65%	0.0544	✓	0.54
2026-10-07	oos	0.6584	0.639487	-2.87%	0.58455	-11.22%	0.0786	✓	0.54
2026-10-06	oos	0.65775	0.641226	-2.51%	0.62335	-5.23%	0.0126	✓	0.54
2026-10-05	oos	0.74105	0.719491	-2.91%	0.6167	-16.78%	0.1283	✓	0.54
2026-10-04	oos	0.81385	0.780309	-4.12%	0.6777	-16.73%	0.1244	✓	0.50
2026-10-03	oos	0.71825	0.697075	-2.95%	0.67945	-5.40%	0.0158	✓	0.45
2026-10-02	oos	0.747	0.72277	-3.24%	0.6611	-11.50%	0.0789	✓	0.44
2026-10-01	oos	0.702	0.681706	-2.89%	0.6411	-8.68%	0.0445	✓	0.45
2026-09-30	oos	0.71695	0.692453	-3.42%	0.6584	-8.17%	0.0489	✓	0.46
2026-09-29	oos	0.6801	0.659937	-2.96%	0.65775	-3.29%	0.0136	✓	0.46
2026-09-28	oos	0.67065	0.648393	-3.32%	0.74105	+10.50%	0.1214	✗	0.45
2026-09-27	oos	0.6561	0.633378	-3.46%	0.81385	+24.04%	0.2382	✗	0.52
2026-09-26	oos	0.61765	0.602435	-2.46%	0.71825	+16.29%	0.1738	✗	0.52
2026-09-25	oos	0.66155	0.639174	-3.38%	0.747	+12.92%	0.1533	✗	0.52
2026-09-24	oos	0.6188	0.602243	-2.68%	0.702	+13.45%	0.1504	✗	0.53
2026-09-23	oos	0.5799	0.565801	-2.43%	0.71695	+23.63%	0.2420	✗	0.53
2026-09-22	oos	0.5784	0.566187	-2.11%	0.6801	+17.58%	0.2005	✗	0.57
2026-09-21	oos	0.57385	0.56005	-2.40%	0.67065	+16.87%	0.2036	✗	0.63
2026-09-20	oos	0.51255	0.503292	-1.81%	0.6561	+28.01%	0.2434	✗	0.54
2026-09-19	oos	0.53845	0.5265	-2.22%	0.61765	+14.71%	0.1391	✗	0.53
2026-09-18	oos	0.5385	0.525411	-2.43%	0.66155	+22.85%	0.2095	✗	0.54
2026-09-17	oos	0.5153	0.502093	-2.56%	0.6188	+20.09%	0.1583	✗	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.5154	0.501817	-2.64%	0.5799	+12.51%	0.0942	✗	0.49
2026-09-15	oos	0.48715	0.475832	-2.32%	0.5784	+18.73%	0.1427	✗	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.49675	0.484681	-2.43%	0.57385	+15.52%	0.1284	✗	0.40
2026-09-13	oos	0.4746	0.465226	-1.98%	0.51255	+8.00%	0.0753	✗	0.39
2026-09-12	oos	0.4807	0.471874	-1.84%	0.53845	+12.01%	0.1125	✗	0.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.49005	0.479533	-2.15%	0.5385	+9.89%	0.0985	✗	0.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.4923	0.477785	-2.95%	0.5153	+4.67%	0.0765	✗	0.36
2026-09-09	oos	0.47825	0.46586	-2.59%	0.5154	+7.77%	0.1117	✗	0.38
2026-09-08	oos	0.4381	0.432594	-1.26%	0.48715	+11.20%	0.1312	✗	0.33
2026-09-07	oos	0.4485	0.440923	-1.69%	0.49675	+10.76%	0.1230	✗	0.33
2026-09-06	oos	0.423	0.422567	-0.10%	0.4746	+12.20%	0.1333	✗	0.38
2026-09-05	oos	0.4154	0.41583	+0.10%	0.4807	+15.72%	0.1576	✓	0.39
2026-09-04	oos	0.4117	0.412675	+0.24%	0.49005	+19.03%	0.1833	✓	0.36
2026-09-03	oos	0.4087	0.412463	+0.92%	0.4923	+20.46%	0.1996	✓	0.38
2026-09-02	oos	0.4061	0.405525	-0.14%	0.47825	+17.77%	0.1614	✗	0.28
2026-09-01	oos	0.4139	0.412648	-0.30%	0.4381	+5.85%	0.0561	✗	0.28
2026-08-31	oos	0.41255	0.413091	+0.13%	0.4485	+8.71%	0.0805	✓	0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.41705	0.416265	-0.19%	0.423	+1.43%	0.0061	✗	0.29
2026-08-29	oos	0.42505	0.424221	-0.20%	0.4154	-2.27%	0.0265	✓	0.27
2026-08-28	oos	0.4201	0.419542	-0.13%	0.4117	-2.00%	0.0252	✓	0.27
2026-08-27	oos	0.416	0.41802	+0.49%	0.4087	-1.75%	0.0261	✗	0.29
2026-08-26	oos	0.4084	0.410102	+0.42%	0.4061	-0.56%	0.0035	✓	0.29
2026-08-25	oos	0.42005	0.420371	+0.08%	0.4139	-1.46%	0.0113	✗	0.29
2026-08-24	oos	0.4475	0.444359	-0.70%	0.41255	-7.81%	0.0729	✓	0.25
2026-08-23	oos	0.4067	0.406539	-0.04%	0.41705	+2.54%	0.0257	✗	0.22
2026-08-22	oos	0.3926	0.393175	+0.15%	0.42505	+8.27%	0.0747	✓	0.21
2026-08-21	oos	0.4206	0.419238	-0.32%	0.4201	-0.12%	0.0032	✓	0.18
2026-08-20	oos	0.3974	0.394569	-0.71%	0.416	+4.68%	0.0439	✗	0.09
2026-08-19	oos	0.3977	0.391881	-1.46%	0.4084	+2.69%	0.0261	✗	0.12
2026-08-18	oos	0.3879	0.379992	-2.04%	0.42005	+8.29%	0.0877	✗	0.06
2026-08-17	oos	0.3685	0.362567	-1.61%	0.4475	+21.44%	0.1916	✗	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.36755	0.361259	-1.71%	0.4067	+10.65%	0.0998	✗	0.09
2026-08-15	oos	0.3763	0.369845	-1.72%	0.3926	+4.33%	0.0388	✗	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.3692	0.363692	-1.49%	0.4206	+13.92%	0.1209	✗	0.11
2026-08-13	oos	0.37805	0.372111	-1.57%	0.3974	+5.12%	0.0541	✗	0.08
2026-08-12	oos	0.3789	0.373267	-1.49%	0.3977	+4.96%	0.0540	✗	0.11
2026-08-11	oos	0.39165	0.385326	-1.61%	0.3879	-0.96%	0.0039	✓	0.16
2026-08-10	oos	0.40075	0.393585	-1.79%	0.3685	-8.05%	0.0675	✓	0.19
2026-08-09	oos	0.4089	0.40106	-1.92%	0.36755	-10.11%	0.0810	✓	0.20
2026-08-08	oos	0.39285	0.386736	-1.56%	0.3763	-4.21%	0.0212	✓	0.21
2026-08-07	oos	0.3932	0.387327	-1.49%	0.3692	-6.10%	0.0437	✓	0.14
2026-08-06	oos	0.39495	0.389324	-1.42%	0.37805	-4.28%	0.0270	✓	0.18
2026-08-05	oos	0.3944	0.389344	-1.28%	0.3789	-3.93%	0.0228	✓	0.23
2026-08-04	oos	0.4014	0.39601	-1.34%	0.39165	-2.43%	0.0091	✓	0.24
2026-08-03	oos	0.4148	0.408507	-1.52%	0.40075	-3.39%	0.0210	✓	0.26
2026-08-02	oos	0.4402	0.432374	-1.78%	0.4089	-7.11%	0.0611	✓	0.25
2026-08-01	oos	0.445	0.436939	-1.81%	0.39285	-11.72%	0.1139	✓	0.22
2026-07-31	oos	0.4356	0.428444	-1.64%	0.3932	-9.73%	0.0931	✓	0.22
2026-07-30	oos	0.45125	0.443507	-1.72%	0.39495	-12.48%	0.1145	✓	0.20
2026-07-29	oos	0.43425	0.426706	-1.74%	0.3944	-9.18%	0.0800	✓	0.12
2026-07-28	oos	0.4267	0.41815	-2.00%	0.4014	-5.93%	0.0411	✓	0.08
2026-07-27	oos	0.39845	0.393497	-1.24%	0.4148	+4.10%	0.0531	✗	0.10
2026-07-26	oos	0.3781	0.375387	-0.72%	0.4402	+16.42%	0.1636	✗	0.15
2026-07-25	oos	0.3859	0.382297	-0.93%	0.445	+15.31%	0.1557	✗	0.16
2026-07-24	oos	0.38545	0.381463	-1.03%	0.4356	+13.01%	0.1358	✗	0.16
2026-07-23	oos	0.38005	0.375966	-1.07%	0.45125	+18.73%	0.1834	✗	0.17
2026-07-22	oos	0.36415	0.362281	-0.51%	0.43425	+19.25%	0.1878	✗	0.20
2026-07-21	oos	0.3413	0.341224	-0.02%	0.4267	+25.02%	0.2321	✗	0.21
2026-07-20	oos	0.32435	0.324716	+0.11%	0.39845	+22.85%	0.2085	✓	0.16
2026-07-19	oos	0.3499	0.349388	-0.15%	0.3781	+8.06%	0.0771	✗	0.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.36655	0.365649	-0.25%	0.3859	+5.28%	0.0554	✗	0.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.3948	0.392375	-0.61%	0.38545	-2.37%	0.0185	✓	0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.3936	0.391294	-0.59%	0.38005	-3.44%	0.0336	✓	0.22
2026-07-15	oos	0.38725	0.385745	-0.39%	0.36415	-5.97%	0.0626	✓	0.24
2026-07-14	oos	0.3841	0.382831	-0.33%	0.3413	-11.14%	0.1204	✓	0.24
2026-07-13	oos	0.39075	0.388215	-0.65%	0.32435	-16.99%	0.1921	✓	0.27
2026-07-12	oos	0.4157	0.41243	-0.79%	0.3499	-15.83%	0.1678	✓	0.23
2026-07-11	oos	0.4171	0.413637	-0.83%	0.36655	-12.12%	0.1245	✓	0.23
2026-07-10	oos	0.4142	0.410962	-0.78%	0.3948	-4.68%	0.0393	✓	0.23
2026-07-09	oos	0.393	0.390678	-0.59%	0.3936	+0.15%	0.0057	✓	0.19
2026-07-08	oos	0.3995	0.396347	-0.79%	0.38725	-3.07%	0.0309	✓	0.20
2026-07-07	oos	0.4145	0.410337	-1.00%	0.3841	-7.33%	0.0708	✓	0.18
2026-07-06	oos	0.4056	0.401638	-0.98%	0.39075	-3.66%	0.0221	✓	0.19
2026-07-05	oos	0.391	0.388787	-0.57%	0.4157	+6.32%	0.0665	✗	0.18
2026-07-04	oos	0.4201	0.417121	-0.71%	0.4171	-0.71%	0.0023	✓	0.20
2026-07-03	oos	0.4244	0.421016	-0.80%	0.4142	-2.40%	0.0215	✓	0.20
2026-07-02	oos	0.41635	0.413191	-0.76%	0.393	-5.61%	0.0550	✓	0.18
2026-07-01	oos	0.416	0.41251	-0.84%	0.3995	-3.97%	0.0384	✓	0.17
2026-06-30	oos	0.4175	0.413925	-0.86%	0.4145	-0.72%	0.0117	✓	0.17
2026-06-29	oos	0.4548	0.448804	-1.32%	0.4056	-10.82%	0.1067	✓	0.09
2026-06-28	oos	0.4599	0.451984	-1.72%	0.391	-14.98%	0.1509	✓	0.09
2026-06-27	oos	0.45985	0.452521	-1.59%	0.4201	-8.64%	0.0790	✓	0.09
2026-06-26	oos	0.4278	0.423132	-1.09%	0.4244	-0.79%	0.0003	✓	0.08
2026-06-25	oos	0.4346	0.42979	-1.11%	0.41635	-4.20%	0.0342	✓	0.08
2026-06-24	oos	0.4589	0.453739	-1.12%	0.416	-9.35%	0.0860	✓	0.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.50205	0.495899	-1.23%	0.4175	-16.84%	0.1748	✓	-0.04
2026-06-22	oos	0.54155	0.534228	-1.35%	0.4548	-16.02%	0.1669	✓	-0.10
2026-06-21	oos	0.551	0.542976	-1.46%	0.4599	-16.53%	0.1717	✓	-0.09
2026-06-20	oos	0.5585	0.5505	-1.43%	0.45985	-17.66%	0.1865	✓	-0.10
2026-06-19	oos	0.56415	0.555322	-1.56%	0.4278	-24.17%	0.2663	✓	-0.10
2026-06-18	oos	0.603	0.588469	-2.41%	0.4346	-27.93%	0.3061	✓	-0.06
2026-06-17	oos	0.5519	0.54347	-1.53%	0.4589	-16.85%	0.1663	✓	0.05
2026-06-16	oos	0.55775	0.549581	-1.46%	0.50205	-9.99%	0.0881	✓	0.05
2026-06-15	oos	0.58475	0.574361	-1.78%	0.54155	-7.39%	0.0575	✓	0.04
2026-06-14	oos	0.5825	0.57266	-1.69%	0.551	-5.41%	0.0375	✓	0.03
2026-06-13	oos	0.5929	0.581569	-1.91%	0.5585	-5.80%	0.0403	✓	0.04
2026-06-12	oos	0.6168	0.600862	-2.58%	0.56415	-8.54%	0.0630	✓	0.07
2026-06-11	oos	0.5536	0.543692	-1.79%	0.603	+8.92%	0.1040	✗	0.05
2026-06-10	oos	0.5864	0.573749	-2.16%	0.5519	-5.88%	0.0465	✓	0.16
2026-06-09	oos	0.5821	0.569877	-2.10%	0.55775	-4.18%	0.0314	✓	0.16
2026-06-08	oos	0.6027	0.589321	-2.22%	0.58475	-2.98%	0.0146	✓	0.14
2026-06-07	oos	0.6361	0.61929	-2.64%	0.5825	-8.43%	0.0665	✓	0.14
2026-06-06	oos	0.6441	0.625037	-2.96%	0.5929	-7.95%	0.0625	✓	0.17
2026-06-05	oos	0.6468	0.623744	-3.56%	0.6168	-4.64%	0.0180	✓	0.17
2026-06-04	oos	0.6134	0.595827	-2.86%	0.5536	-9.75%	0.0720	✓	0.39
2026-06-03	oos	0.6096	0.592025	-2.88%	0.5864	-3.81%	0.0067	✓	0.39
2026-06-02	oos	0.6055	0.587936	-2.90%	0.5821	-3.86%	0.0287	✓	0.50
2026-06-01	oos	0.6317	0.611072	-3.27%	0.6027	-4.59%	0.0494	✗	0.51
2026-05-31	oos	0.62555	0.606226	-3.09%	0.6361	+1.69%	0.1532	✗	0.70
2026-05-30	oos	0.6181	0.598846	-3.12%	0.6441	+4.21%	0.2087	✗	0.71
2026-05-29	oos	0.60905	0.58988	-3.15%	0.6468	+6.20%	0.2171	✗	0.68
2026-05-28	oos	0.6264	0.604703	-3.46%	0.6134	-2.08%	0.1102	✗	0.68
2026-05-27	oos	0.639	0.615147	-3.73%	0.6096	-4.60%	0.1398	✗	1.00
2026-05-26	oos	0.6087	0.588237	-3.36%	0.6055	-0.53%	0.1578	✗	1.00
2026-05-25	oos	0.6174	0.596571	-3.37%	0.6317	+2.32%	0.1372	✗	1.00
2026-05-24	oos	0.6173	0.596825	-3.32%	0.62555	+1.34%	0.0922	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.6524	0.628483	-3.67%	0.6181	-5.26%	0.0216	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.6387	0.615594	-3.62%	0.60905	-4.64%	0.0172	✓	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.6602	0.63352	-4.04%	0.6264	-5.12%	0.0421	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.6316	0.608712	-3.62%	0.639	+1.17%	0.0902	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.5749	0.558942	-2.78%	0.6087	+5.88%	0.0976	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.6347	0.615366	-3.05%	0.6174	-2.73%	0.0007	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.7222	0.695877	-3.64%	0.6173	-14.53%	0.1142	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.763	0.730295	-4.29%	0.6524	-14.50%	0.0940	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.7118	0.686586	-3.54%	0.6387	-10.27%	0.0255	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.7403	0.713314	-3.65%	0.6602	-10.82%	0.0328	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.7024	0.679111	-3.32%	0.6316	-10.08%	0.0494	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.7669	0.739966	-3.51%	0.5749	-25.04%	0.2051	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.8004	0.772815	-3.45%	0.6347	-20.70%	0.1366	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.9108	0.868584	-4.63%	0.7222	-20.71%	0.1245	✓	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	1.0032	0.929143	-7.38%	0.763	-23.94%	0.1649	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.8663	0.799453	-7.72%	0.7118	-17.83%	0.1019	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.6322	0.612339	-3.14%	0.7403	+17.10%	0.1764	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.