PROS

Pharos · native · beta_5y

token id: #473
symbol: PROS
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-28
predictions: 507

Track record at +1d

assessed

168

of 169 predictions shown

direction hit

51.2%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0380

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0053

actual +0.0007

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	0.59875	0.595463	-0.55%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-21	oos	0.62925	0.625489	-0.60%	0.59875	+0.47%	0.0091	✗	0.69
2026-10-20	oos	0.6195	0.616096	-0.55%	0.62925	+1.57%	0.0231	✗	0.67
2026-10-19	oos	0.63415	0.630339	-0.60%	0.6195	-2.31%	0.0262	✓	0.66
2026-10-18	oos	0.6322	0.627892	-0.68%	0.63415	+0.31%	0.0113	✗	0.68
2026-10-17	oos	0.6148	0.611447	-0.55%	0.6322	+2.83%	0.0283	✗	0.66
2026-10-16	oos	0.6534	0.647179	-0.95%	0.6148	-5.91%	0.0504	✓	0.66
2026-10-15	oos	0.59205	0.588953	-0.52%	0.6534	+10.36%	0.1089	✗	0.66
2026-10-14	oos	0.58455	0.582054	-0.43%	0.59205	+1.28%	0.0125	✗	0.66
2026-10-13	oos	0.62335	0.619721	-0.58%	0.58455	-6.22%	0.0469	✓	0.62
2026-10-12	oos	0.6167	0.613378	-0.54%	0.62335	+1.08%	0.0059	✗	0.62
2026-10-11	oos	0.6777	0.672938	-0.70%	0.6167	-9.00%	0.0755	✓	0.50
2026-10-10	oos	0.67945	0.674506	-0.73%	0.6777	-0.26%	0.0003	✓	0.55
2026-10-09	oos	0.6611	0.656956	-0.63%	0.67945	+2.78%	0.0313	✗	0.55
2026-10-08	oos	0.6411	0.637661	-0.54%	0.6611	+3.12%	0.0305	✗	0.54
2026-10-07	oos	0.6584	0.654272	-0.63%	0.6411	-2.63%	0.0100	✓	0.54
2026-10-06	oos	0.65775	0.654612	-0.48%	0.6584	+0.10%	0.0203	✗	0.54
2026-10-05	oos	0.74105	0.736319	-0.64%	0.65775	-11.24%	0.1115	✓	0.54
2026-10-04	oos	0.81385	0.802834	-1.35%	0.74105	-8.95%	0.0757	✓	0.50
2026-10-03	oos	0.71825	0.713504	-0.66%	0.81385	+13.31%	0.1223	✗	0.45
2026-10-02	oos	0.747	0.740898	-0.82%	0.71825	-3.85%	0.0323	✓	0.44
2026-10-01	oos	0.702	0.697276	-0.67%	0.747	+6.41%	0.0707	✗	0.45
2026-09-30	oos	0.71695	0.710095	-0.96%	0.702	-2.09%	0.0185	✓	0.46
2026-09-29	oos	0.6801	0.675177	-0.72%	0.71695	+5.42%	0.0605	✗	0.46
2026-09-28	oos	0.67065	0.664183	-0.96%	0.6801	+1.41%	0.0227	✗	0.45
2026-09-27	oos	0.6561	0.648902	-1.10%	0.67065	+2.22%	0.0392	✗	0.52
2026-09-26	oos	0.61765	0.614194	-0.56%	0.6561	+6.23%	0.0657	✗	0.52
2026-09-25	oos	0.66155	0.654573	-1.05%	0.61765	-6.64%	0.0601	✓	0.52
2026-09-24	oos	0.6188	0.614326	-0.72%	0.66155	+6.91%	0.0759	✗	0.53
2026-09-23	oos	0.5799	0.575798	-0.71%	0.6188	+6.71%	0.0720	✗	0.53
2026-09-22	oos	0.5784	0.575054	-0.58%	0.5799	+0.26%	0.0206	✗	0.57
2026-09-21	oos	0.57385	0.56921	-0.81%	0.5784	+0.79%	0.0189	✗	0.63
2026-09-20	oos	0.51255	0.510332	-0.43%	0.57385	+11.96%	0.0820	✗	0.54
2026-09-19	oos	0.53845	0.535385	-0.57%	0.51255	-4.81%	0.0431	✓	0.53
2026-09-18	oos	0.5385	0.534939	-0.66%	0.53845	-0.01%	0.0042	✓	0.54
2026-09-17	oos	0.5153	0.512248	-0.59%	0.5385	+4.50%	0.0208	✗	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.5154	0.512183	-0.62%	0.5153	-0.02%	0.0048	✓	0.49
2026-09-15	oos	0.48715	0.484584	-0.53%	0.5154	+5.80%	0.0587	✗	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.49675	0.493075	-0.74%	0.48715	-1.93%	0.0013	✓	0.40
2026-09-13	oos	0.4746	0.472202	-0.51%	0.49675	+4.67%	0.0438	✗	0.39
2026-09-12	oos	0.4807	0.47836	-0.49%	0.4746	-1.27%	0.0055	✓	0.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.49005	0.486518	-0.72%	0.4807	-1.91%	0.0123	✓	0.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.4923	0.486411	-1.20%	0.49005	-0.46%	0.0043	✓	0.36
2026-09-09	oos	0.47825	0.472732	-1.15%	0.4923	+2.94%	0.0492	✗	0.38
2026-09-08	oos	0.4381	0.435588	-0.57%	0.47825	+9.16%	0.0941	✗	0.33
2026-09-07	oos	0.4485	0.444745	-0.84%	0.4381	-2.32%	0.0124	✓	0.33
2026-09-06	oos	0.423	0.422043	-0.23%	0.4485	+6.03%	0.0667	✗	0.38
2026-09-05	oos	0.4154	0.414565	-0.20%	0.423	+1.83%	0.0177	✗	0.39
2026-09-04	oos	0.4117	0.410971	-0.18%	0.4154	+0.90%	0.0100	✗	0.36
2026-09-03	oos	0.4087	0.40837	-0.08%	0.4117	+0.73%	0.0156	✗	0.38
2026-09-02	oos	0.4061	0.40509	-0.25%	0.4087	+0.64%	0.0052	✓	0.28
2026-09-01	oos	0.4139	0.412735	-0.28%	0.4061	-1.88%	0.0159	✓	0.28
2026-08-31	oos	0.41255	0.411596	-0.23%	0.4139	+0.33%	0.0094	✗	0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.41705	0.415718	-0.32%	0.41255	-1.08%	0.0110	✓	0.29
2026-08-29	oos	0.42505	0.423649	-0.33%	0.41705	-1.88%	0.0137	✓	0.27
2026-08-28	oos	0.4201	0.418768	-0.32%	0.42505	+1.18%	0.0135	✗	0.27
2026-08-27	oos	0.416	0.414833	-0.28%	0.4201	+0.99%	0.0216	✗	0.29
2026-08-26	oos	0.4084	0.407394	-0.25%	0.416	+1.86%	0.0164	✗	0.29
2026-08-25	oos	0.42005	0.418624	-0.34%	0.4084	-2.77%	0.0266	✓	0.29
2026-08-24	oos	0.4475	0.444514	-0.67%	0.42005	-6.13%	0.0551	✓	0.25
2026-08-23	oos	0.4067	0.405242	-0.36%	0.4475	+10.03%	0.0957	✗	0.22
2026-08-22	oos	0.3926	0.391615	-0.25%	0.4067	+3.59%	0.0360	✗	0.21
2026-08-21	oos	0.4206	0.418731	-0.44%	0.3926	-6.66%	0.0615	✓	0.18
2026-08-20	oos	0.3974	0.396102	-0.33%	0.4206	+5.84%	0.0533	✗	0.09
2026-08-19	oos	0.3977	0.395912	-0.45%	0.3974	-0.08%	0.0023	✓	0.12
2026-08-18	oos	0.3879	0.385797	-0.54%	0.3977	+2.53%	0.0259	✗	0.06
2026-08-17	oos	0.3685	0.367058	-0.39%	0.3879	+5.26%	0.0549	✗	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.36755	0.36609	-0.40%	0.3685	+0.26%	0.0043	✗	0.09
2026-08-15	oos	0.3763	0.374743	-0.41%	0.36755	-2.33%	0.0191	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.3692	0.367874	-0.36%	0.3763	+1.92%	0.0226	✗	0.11
2026-08-13	oos	0.37805	0.376569	-0.39%	0.3692	-2.34%	0.0192	✓	0.08
2026-08-12	oos	0.3789	0.377521	-0.36%	0.37805	-0.22%	0.0014	✓	0.11
2026-08-11	oos	0.39165	0.390087	-0.40%	0.3789	-3.26%	0.0288	✓	0.16
2026-08-10	oos	0.40075	0.39895	-0.45%	0.39165	-2.27%	0.0174	✓	0.19
2026-08-09	oos	0.4089	0.406732	-0.53%	0.40075	-1.99%	0.0119	✓	0.20
2026-08-08	oos	0.39285	0.391283	-0.40%	0.4089	+4.09%	0.0442	✗	0.21
2026-08-07	oos	0.3932	0.391671	-0.39%	0.39285	-0.09%	0.0030	✓	0.14
2026-08-06	oos	0.39495	0.393474	-0.37%	0.3932	-0.44%	0.0025	✓	0.18
2026-08-05	oos	0.3944	0.393077	-0.34%	0.39495	+0.14%	0.0060	✗	0.23
2026-08-04	oos	0.4014	0.400042	-0.34%	0.3944	-1.74%	0.0163	✓	0.24
2026-08-03	oos	0.4148	0.413263	-0.37%	0.4014	-3.23%	0.0315	✓	0.26
2026-08-02	oos	0.4402	0.438106	-0.48%	0.4148	-5.77%	0.0545	✓	0.25
2026-08-01	oos	0.445	0.442883	-0.48%	0.4402	-1.08%	0.0087	✓	0.22
2026-07-31	oos	0.4356	0.433709	-0.43%	0.445	+2.16%	0.0259	✗	0.22
2026-07-30	oos	0.45125	0.448864	-0.53%	0.4356	-3.47%	0.0240	✓	0.20
2026-07-29	oos	0.43425	0.431603	-0.61%	0.45125	+3.91%	0.0430	✗	0.12
2026-07-28	oos	0.4267	0.423295	-0.80%	0.43425	+1.77%	0.0255	✗	0.08
2026-07-27	oos	0.39845	0.396731	-0.43%	0.4267	+7.09%	0.0726	✗	0.10
2026-07-26	oos	0.3781	0.376998	-0.29%	0.39845	+5.38%	0.0592	✗	0.15
2026-07-25	oos	0.3859	0.384564	-0.35%	0.3781	-2.02%	0.0195	✓	0.16
2026-07-24	oos	0.38545	0.383874	-0.41%	0.3859	+0.12%	0.0047	✗	0.16
2026-07-23	oos	0.38005	0.378101	-0.51%	0.38545	+1.42%	0.0218	✗	0.17
2026-07-22	oos	0.36415	0.363051	-0.30%	0.38005	+4.37%	0.0488	✗	0.20
2026-07-21	oos	0.3413	0.340871	-0.13%	0.36415	+6.69%	0.0674	✗	0.21
2026-07-20	oos	0.32435	0.324148	-0.06%	0.3413	+5.23%	0.0483	✗	0.16
2026-07-19	oos	0.3499	0.349466	-0.12%	0.32435	-7.30%	0.0761	✓	0.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.36655	0.36595	-0.16%	0.3499	-4.54%	0.0445	✓	0.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.3948	0.393823	-0.25%	0.36655	-7.16%	0.0749	✓	0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.3936	0.39267	-0.24%	0.3948	+0.30%	0.0050	✗	0.22
2026-07-15	oos	0.38725	0.386524	-0.19%	0.3936	+1.64%	0.0216	✗	0.24
2026-07-14	oos	0.3841	0.38348	-0.16%	0.38725	+0.82%	0.0108	✗	0.24
2026-07-13	oos	0.39075	0.389924	-0.21%	0.3841	-1.70%	0.0265	✓	0.27
2026-07-12	oos	0.4157	0.414611	-0.26%	0.39075	-6.00%	0.0539	✓	0.23
2026-07-11	oos	0.4171	0.415949	-0.28%	0.4157	-0.34%	0.0005	✓	0.23
2026-07-10	oos	0.4142	0.413084	-0.27%	0.4171	+0.70%	0.0110	✗	0.23
2026-07-09	oos	0.393	0.392205	-0.20%	0.4142	+5.39%	0.0517	✗	0.19
2026-07-08	oos	0.3995	0.398528	-0.24%	0.393	-1.63%	0.0169	✓	0.20
2026-07-07	oos	0.4145	0.413133	-0.33%	0.3995	-3.62%	0.0304	✓	0.18
2026-07-06	oos	0.4056	0.404193	-0.35%	0.4145	+2.19%	0.0273	✗	0.19
2026-07-05	oos	0.391	0.390123	-0.22%	0.4056	+3.73%	0.0377	✗	0.18
2026-07-04	oos	0.4201	0.41917	-0.22%	0.391	-6.93%	0.0712	✓	0.20
2026-07-03	oos	0.4244	0.423403	-0.23%	0.4201	-1.01%	0.0097	✓	0.20
2026-07-02	oos	0.41635	0.415485	-0.21%	0.4244	+1.93%	0.0182	✗	0.18
2026-07-01	oos	0.416	0.415127	-0.21%	0.41635	+0.08%	0.0013	✓	0.17
2026-06-30	oos	0.4175	0.416663	-0.20%	0.416	-0.36%	0.0056	✓	0.17
2026-06-29	oos	0.4548	0.453164	-0.36%	0.4175	-8.20%	0.0795	✓	0.09
2026-06-28	oos	0.4599	0.457431	-0.54%	0.4548	-1.11%	0.0068	✓	0.09
2026-06-27	oos	0.45985	0.457797	-0.45%	0.4599	+0.01%	0.0053	✗	0.09
2026-06-26	oos	0.4278	0.426754	-0.24%	0.45985	+7.49%	0.0748	✗	0.08
2026-06-25	oos	0.4346	0.433501	-0.25%	0.4278	-1.56%	0.0136	✓	0.08
2026-06-24	oos	0.4589	0.45772	-0.26%	0.4346	-5.30%	0.0508	✓	0.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.50205	0.50059	-0.29%	0.4589	-8.59%	0.0880	✓	-0.04
2026-06-22	oos	0.54155	0.539748	-0.33%	0.50205	-7.29%	0.0744	✓	-0.10
2026-06-21	oos	0.551	0.549032	-0.36%	0.54155	-1.72%	0.0127	✓	-0.09
2026-06-20	oos	0.5585	0.55654	-0.35%	0.551	-1.34%	0.0115	✓	-0.10
2026-06-19	oos	0.56415	0.562105	-0.36%	0.5585	-1.00%	0.0053	✓	-0.10
2026-06-18	oos	0.603	0.598824	-0.69%	0.56415	-6.44%	0.0591	✓	-0.06
2026-06-17	oos	0.5519	0.550025	-0.34%	0.603	+9.26%	0.0932	✗	0.05
2026-06-16	oos	0.55775	0.556001	-0.31%	0.5519	-1.05%	0.0065	✓	0.05
2026-06-15	oos	0.58475	0.582365	-0.41%	0.55775	-4.62%	0.0428	✓	0.04
2026-06-14	oos	0.5825	0.580449	-0.35%	0.58475	+0.39%	0.0071	✗	0.03
2026-06-13	oos	0.5929	0.590548	-0.40%	0.5825	-1.75%	0.0145	✓	0.04
2026-06-12	oos	0.6168	0.61282	-0.65%	0.5929	-3.87%	0.0340	✓	0.07
2026-06-11	oos	0.5536	0.551698	-0.34%	0.6168	+11.42%	0.1116	✗	0.05
2026-06-10	oos	0.5864	0.583734	-0.45%	0.5536	-5.59%	0.0585	✓	0.16
2026-06-09	oos	0.5821	0.579617	-0.43%	0.5864	+0.74%	0.0123	✗	0.16
2026-06-08	oos	0.6027	0.600066	-0.44%	0.5821	-3.42%	0.0274	✓	0.14
2026-06-07	oos	0.6361	0.632619	-0.55%	0.6027	-5.25%	0.0479	✓	0.14
2026-06-06	oos	0.6441	0.639814	-0.67%	0.6361	-1.24%	0.0126	✓	0.17
2026-06-05	oos	0.6468	0.640614	-0.96%	0.6441	-0.42%	0.0059	✓	0.17
2026-06-04	oos	0.6134	0.609602	-0.62%	0.6468	+5.45%	0.0767	✗	0.39
2026-06-03	oos	0.6096	0.605841	-0.62%	0.6134	+0.62%	0.0138	✗	0.39
2026-06-02	oos	0.6055	0.601931	-0.59%	0.6096	+0.68%	0.0327	✗	0.50
2026-06-01	oos	0.6317	0.627316	-0.69%	0.6055	-4.15%	0.0007	✓	0.51
2026-05-31	oos	0.62555	0.621787	-0.60%	0.6317	+0.98%	0.0376	✗	0.70
2026-05-30	oos	0.6181	0.614535	-0.58%	0.62555	+1.21%	0.0196	✗	0.71
2026-05-29	oos	0.60905	0.605657	-0.56%	0.6181	+1.49%	0.0166	✗	0.68
2026-05-28	oos	0.6264	0.622187	-0.67%	0.60905	-2.77%	0.0200	✓	0.68
2026-05-27	oos	0.639	0.633961	-0.79%	0.6264	-1.97%	0.0011	✓	1.00
2026-05-26	oos	0.6087	0.604987	-0.61%	0.639	+4.98%	0.0748	✗	1.00
2026-05-25	oos	0.6174	0.613745	-0.59%	0.6087	-1.41%	0.0103	✗	1.00
2026-05-24	oos	0.6173	0.613898	-0.55%	0.6174	+0.02%	0.0021	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.6524	0.647968	-0.68%	0.6173	-5.38%	0.0527	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.6387	0.634503	-0.66%	0.6524	+2.14%	0.0120	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.6602	0.654597	-0.85%	0.6387	-3.26%	0.0029	✓	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.6316	0.627383	-0.67%	0.6602	+4.53%	0.0501	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.5749	0.5729	-0.35%	0.6316	+9.86%	0.0884	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.6347	0.632028	-0.42%	0.5749	-9.42%	0.0924	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.7222	0.717894	-0.60%	0.6347	-12.12%	0.1172	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.763	0.756296	-0.88%	0.7222	-5.35%	0.0372	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.7118	0.707529	-0.60%	0.763	+7.19%	0.0876	✗	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.7403	0.734607	-0.77%	0.7118	-3.85%	0.0063	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.7024	0.698624	-0.54%	0.7403	+5.40%	0.0356	✗	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.7669	0.762172	-0.62%	0.7024	-8.41%	0.0667	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.8004	0.795289	-0.64%	0.7669	-4.19%	0.0210	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.9108	0.899952	-1.19%	0.8004	-12.12%	0.1115	✓	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	1.0032	0.977235	-2.59%	0.9108	-9.21%	0.0894	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.8663	0.840946	-2.93%	1.0032	+15.80%	0.1706	✗	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.6322	0.628207	-0.63%	0.8663	+37.03%	0.3191	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.