PROS

Pharos · native · beta_5y

token id: #473
symbol: PROS
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-28
predictions: 507

Track record at +30d

assessed

139

of 169 predictions shown

direction hit

58.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2016

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0494

actual +0.0191

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	0.59875	0.538918	-9.99%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-21	oos	0.62925	0.56298	-10.53%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-20	oos	0.6195	0.556684	-10.14%	–	pending	–	–	0.67
2026-10-19	oos	0.63415	0.567607	-10.49%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-18	oos	0.6322	0.567996	-10.16%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-10-17	oos	0.6148	0.551393	-10.31%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-16	oos	0.6534	0.583343	-10.72%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-15	oos	0.59205	0.534075	-9.79%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-14	oos	0.58455	0.527381	-9.78%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-13	oos	0.62335	0.564831	-9.39%	–	pending	–	–	0.62
2026-10-12	oos	0.6167	0.556705	-9.73%	–	pending	–	–	0.62
2026-10-11	oos	0.6777	0.610801	-9.87%	–	pending	–	–	0.50
2026-10-10	oos	0.67945	0.612121	-9.91%	–	pending	–	–	0.55
2026-10-09	oos	0.6611	0.597521	-9.62%	–	pending	–	–	0.55
2026-10-08	oos	0.6411	0.58099	-9.38%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-10-07	oos	0.6584	0.599797	-8.90%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-10-06	oos	0.65775	0.602924	-8.34%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-10-05	oos	0.74105	0.675014	-8.91%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-10-04	oos	0.81385	0.738514	-9.26%	–	pending	–	–	0.50
2026-10-03	oos	0.71825	0.654363	-8.89%	–	pending	–	–	0.45
2026-10-02	oos	0.747	0.679615	-9.02%	–	pending	–	–	0.44
2026-10-01	oos	0.702	0.64273	-8.44%	–	pending	–	–	0.45
2026-09-30	oos	0.71695	0.654014	-8.78%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-29	oos	0.6801	0.622648	-8.45%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-28	oos	0.67065	0.615326	-8.25%	–	pending	–	–	0.45
2026-09-27	oos	0.6561	0.604654	-7.84%	–	pending	–	–	0.52
2026-09-26	oos	0.61765	0.572451	-7.32%	–	pending	–	–	0.52
2026-09-25	oos	0.66155	0.610349	-7.74%	–	pending	–	–	0.52
2026-09-24	oos	0.6188	0.575778	-6.95%	–	pending	–	–	0.53
2026-09-23	oos	0.5799	0.545507	-5.93%	–	pending	–	–	0.53
2026-09-22	oos	0.5784	0.546701	-5.48%	0.59875	+3.52%	0.1042	✗	0.57
2026-09-21	oos	0.57385	0.546064	-4.84%	0.62925	+9.65%	0.1709	✗	0.63
2026-09-20	oos	0.51255	0.486302	-5.12%	0.6195	+20.87%	0.2303	✗	0.54
2026-09-19	oos	0.53845	0.506432	-5.95%	0.63415	+17.77%	0.2209	✗	0.53
2026-09-18	oos	0.5385	0.505102	-6.20%	0.6322	+17.40%	0.2170	✗	0.54
2026-09-17	oos	0.5153	0.476465	-7.54%	0.6148	+19.31%	0.2226	✗	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.5154	0.475673	-7.71%	0.6534	+26.78%	0.2841	✗	0.49
2026-09-15	oos	0.48715	0.451817	-7.25%	0.59205	+21.53%	0.2372	✗	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.49675	0.466375	-6.11%	0.58455	+17.67%	0.2090	✗	0.40
2026-09-13	oos	0.4746	0.444606	-6.32%	0.62335	+31.34%	0.3071	✗	0.39
2026-09-12	oos	0.4807	0.451295	-6.12%	0.6167	+28.29%	0.2903	✗	0.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.49005	0.461875	-5.75%	0.6777	+38.29%	0.3531	✗	0.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.4923	0.463421	-5.87%	0.67945	+38.02%	0.3537	✗	0.36
2026-09-09	oos	0.47825	0.456238	-4.60%	0.6611	+38.23%	0.3505	✗	0.38
2026-09-08	oos	0.4381	0.423507	-3.33%	0.6411	+46.34%	0.4011	✗	0.33
2026-09-07	oos	0.4485	0.4336	-3.32%	0.6584	+46.80%	0.4009	✗	0.33
2026-09-06	oos	0.423	0.414673	-1.97%	0.65775	+55.50%	0.4375	✗	0.38
2026-09-05	oos	0.4154	0.409487	-1.42%	0.74105	+78.39%	0.5655	✗	0.39
2026-09-04	oos	0.4117	0.406686	-1.22%	0.81385	+97.68%	0.6638	✗	0.36
2026-09-03	oos	0.4087	0.41067	+0.48%	0.71825	+75.74%	0.5432	✓	0.38
2026-09-02	oos	0.4061	0.398998	-1.75%	0.747	+83.94%	0.6020	✗	0.28
2026-09-01	oos	0.4139	0.405273	-2.08%	0.702	+69.61%	0.5238	✗	0.28
2026-08-31	oos	0.41255	0.410454	-0.51%	0.71695	+73.78%	0.5419	✗	0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.41705	0.414006	-0.73%	0.6801	+63.07%	0.4745	✗	0.29
2026-08-29	oos	0.42505	0.422752	-0.54%	0.67065	+57.78%	0.4438	✗	0.27
2026-08-28	oos	0.4201	0.421631	+0.36%	0.6561	+56.18%	0.4201	✓	0.27
2026-08-27	oos	0.416	0.431676	+3.77%	0.61765	+48.47%	0.3436	✓	0.29
2026-08-26	oos	0.4084	0.423077	+3.59%	0.66155	+61.99%	0.4293	✓	0.29
2026-08-25	oos	0.42005	0.432567	+2.98%	0.6188	+47.32%	0.3370	✓	0.29
2026-08-24	oos	0.4475	0.4568	+2.08%	0.5799	+29.59%	0.2219	✓	0.25
2026-08-23	oos	0.4067	0.418555	+2.91%	0.5784	+42.22%	0.3008	✓	0.22
2026-08-22	oos	0.3926	0.403961	+2.89%	0.57385	+46.17%	0.3264	✓	0.21
2026-08-21	oos	0.4206	0.429813	+2.19%	0.51255	+21.86%	0.1696	✓	0.18
2026-08-20	oos	0.3974	0.393201	-1.06%	0.53845	+35.49%	0.3043	✗	0.09
2026-08-19	oos	0.3977	0.384124	-3.41%	0.5385	+35.40%	0.3200	✗	0.12
2026-08-18	oos	0.3879	0.366293	-5.57%	0.5153	+32.84%	0.3306	✗	0.06
2026-08-17	oos	0.3685	0.34939	-5.19%	0.5154	+39.86%	0.3733	✗	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.36755	0.346187	-5.81%	0.48715	+32.54%	0.3253	✗	0.09
2026-08-15	oos	0.3763	0.355509	-5.53%	0.49675	+32.01%	0.3121	✗	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.3692	0.350935	-4.95%	0.4746	+28.55%	0.2796	✗	0.11
2026-08-13	oos	0.37805	0.359506	-4.91%	0.4807	+27.15%	0.2742	✗	0.08
2026-08-12	oos	0.3789	0.360339	-4.90%	0.49005	+29.33%	0.2866	✗	0.11
2026-08-11	oos	0.39165	0.371141	-5.24%	0.4923	+25.70%	0.2536	✗	0.16
2026-08-10	oos	0.40075	0.379153	-5.39%	0.47825	+19.34%	0.1942	✗	0.19
2026-08-09	oos	0.4089	0.386929	-5.37%	0.4381	+7.14%	0.0866	✗	0.20
2026-08-08	oos	0.39285	0.373038	-5.04%	0.4485	+14.17%	0.1432	✗	0.21
2026-08-07	oos	0.3932	0.374414	-4.78%	0.423	+7.58%	0.0919	✗	0.14
2026-08-06	oos	0.39495	0.376226	-4.74%	0.4154	+5.18%	0.0594	✗	0.18
2026-08-05	oos	0.3944	0.377347	-4.32%	0.4117	+4.39%	0.0380	✓	0.23
2026-08-04	oos	0.4014	0.383683	-4.41%	0.4087	+1.82%	0.0059	✓	0.24
2026-08-03	oos	0.4148	0.394095	-4.99%	0.4061	-2.10%	0.0206	✓	0.26
2026-08-02	oos	0.4402	0.417214	-5.22%	0.4139	-5.97%	0.0581	✓	0.25
2026-08-01	oos	0.445	0.420463	-5.51%	0.41255	-7.29%	0.0692	✓	0.22
2026-07-31	oos	0.4356	0.414134	-4.93%	0.41705	-4.26%	0.0405	✓	0.22
2026-07-30	oos	0.45125	0.431022	-4.48%	0.42505	-5.81%	0.0521	✓	0.20
2026-07-29	oos	0.43425	0.417598	-3.83%	0.4201	-3.26%	0.0167	✓	0.12
2026-07-28	oos	0.4267	0.411656	-3.53%	0.416	-2.51%	0.0077	✓	0.08
2026-07-27	oos	0.39845	0.386726	-2.94%	0.4084	+2.50%	0.0333	✗	0.10
2026-07-26	oos	0.3781	0.372332	-1.53%	0.42005	+11.09%	0.0930	✗	0.15
2026-07-25	oos	0.3859	0.378008	-2.05%	0.4475	+15.96%	0.1362	✗	0.16
2026-07-24	oos	0.38545	0.379272	-1.60%	0.4067	+5.51%	0.0396	✗	0.16
2026-07-23	oos	0.38005	0.377292	-0.73%	0.3926	+3.30%	0.0113	✗	0.17
2026-07-22	oos	0.36415	0.364891	+0.20%	0.4206	+15.50%	0.1089	✓	0.20
2026-07-21	oos	0.3413	0.344628	+0.98%	0.3974	+16.44%	0.1231	✓	0.21
2026-07-20	oos	0.32435	0.327737	+1.04%	0.3977	+22.61%	0.1835	✓	0.16
2026-07-19	oos	0.3499	0.3503	+0.11%	0.3879	+10.86%	0.1020	✓	0.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.36655	0.366227	-0.09%	0.3685	+0.53%	0.0071	✗	0.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.3948	0.38886	-1.50%	0.36755	-6.90%	0.0526	✓	0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.3936	0.388468	-1.30%	0.3763	-4.40%	0.0292	✓	0.22
2026-07-15	oos	0.38725	0.384948	-0.59%	0.3692	-4.66%	0.0353	✓	0.24
2026-07-14	oos	0.3841	0.382297	-0.47%	0.37805	-1.58%	0.0054	✓	0.24
2026-07-13	oos	0.39075	0.384451	-1.61%	0.3789	-3.03%	0.0194	✓	0.27
2026-07-12	oos	0.4157	0.407941	-1.87%	0.39165	-5.79%	0.0400	✓	0.23
2026-07-11	oos	0.4171	0.409572	-1.80%	0.40075	-3.92%	0.0223	✓	0.23
2026-07-10	oos	0.4142	0.407757	-1.56%	0.4089	-1.28%	0.0002	✓	0.23
2026-07-09	oos	0.393	0.388586	-1.12%	0.39285	-0.04%	0.0058	✓	0.19
2026-07-08	oos	0.3995	0.393859	-1.41%	0.3932	-1.58%	0.0099	✓	0.20
2026-07-07	oos	0.4145	0.407546	-1.68%	0.39495	-4.72%	0.0341	✓	0.18
2026-07-06	oos	0.4056	0.399968	-1.39%	0.3944	-2.76%	0.0158	✓	0.19
2026-07-05	oos	0.391	0.388395	-0.67%	0.4014	+2.66%	0.0316	✗	0.18
2026-07-04	oos	0.4201	0.412906	-1.71%	0.4148	-1.26%	0.0034	✓	0.20
2026-07-03	oos	0.4244	0.416176	-1.94%	0.4402	+3.72%	0.0530	✗	0.20
2026-07-02	oos	0.41635	0.40817	-1.96%	0.445	+6.88%	0.0827	✗	0.18
2026-07-01	oos	0.416	0.40663	-2.25%	0.4356	+4.71%	0.0608	✗	0.17
2026-06-30	oos	0.4175	0.406754	-2.57%	0.45125	+8.08%	0.0872	✗	0.17
2026-06-29	oos	0.4548	0.440923	-3.05%	0.43425	-4.52%	0.0206	✓	0.09
2026-06-28	oos	0.4599	0.443605	-3.54%	0.4267	-7.22%	0.0452	✓	0.09
2026-06-27	oos	0.45985	0.442405	-3.79%	0.39845	-13.35%	0.1102	✓	0.09
2026-06-26	oos	0.4278	0.413203	-3.41%	0.3781	-11.62%	0.0956	✓	0.08
2026-06-25	oos	0.4346	0.419024	-3.58%	0.3859	-11.21%	0.0884	✓	0.08
2026-06-24	oos	0.4589	0.442064	-3.67%	0.38545	-16.01%	0.1394	✓	0.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.50205	0.482138	-3.97%	0.38005	-24.30%	0.2364	✓	-0.04
2026-06-22	oos	0.54155	0.517836	-4.38%	0.36415	-32.76%	0.3489	✓	-0.10
2026-06-21	oos	0.551	0.525449	-4.64%	0.3413	-38.06%	0.4268	✓	-0.09
2026-06-20	oos	0.5585	0.532929	-4.58%	0.32435	-41.92%	0.4951	✓	-0.10
2026-06-19	oos	0.56415	0.537316	-4.76%	0.3499	-37.98%	0.4271	✓	-0.10
2026-06-18	oos	0.603	0.567855	-5.83%	0.36655	-39.21%	0.4360	✓	-0.06
2026-06-17	oos	0.5519	0.526016	-4.69%	0.3948	-28.47%	0.2865	✓	0.05
2026-06-16	oos	0.55775	0.53181	-4.65%	0.3936	-29.43%	0.2995	✓	0.05
2026-06-15	oos	0.58475	0.555083	-5.07%	0.38725	-33.78%	0.3592	✓	0.04
2026-06-14	oos	0.5825	0.551632	-5.30%	0.3841	-34.06%	0.3617	✓	0.03
2026-06-13	oos	0.5929	0.558459	-5.81%	0.39075	-34.10%	0.3558	✓	0.04
2026-06-12	oos	0.6168	0.575361	-6.72%	0.4157	-32.60%	0.3253	✓	0.07
2026-06-11	oos	0.5536	0.521775	-5.75%	0.4171	-24.66%	0.2241	✓	0.05
2026-06-10	oos	0.5864	0.546938	-6.73%	0.4142	-29.37%	0.2849	✓	0.16
2026-06-09	oos	0.5821	0.542556	-6.79%	0.393	-32.49%	0.3263	✓	0.16
2026-06-08	oos	0.6027	0.559098	-7.23%	0.3995	-33.71%	0.3343	✓	0.14
2026-06-07	oos	0.6361	0.584438	-8.12%	0.4145	-34.84%	0.3436	✓	0.14
2026-06-06	oos	0.6441	0.58728	-8.82%	0.4056	-37.03%	0.3787	✓	0.17
2026-06-05	oos	0.6468	0.586284	-9.36%	0.391	-39.55%	0.4120	✓	0.17
2026-06-04	oos	0.6134	0.559025	-8.86%	0.4201	-31.51%	0.2812	✓	0.39
2026-06-03	oos	0.6096	0.554366	-9.06%	0.4244	-30.38%	0.2577	✓	0.39
2026-06-02	oos	0.6055	0.550287	-9.12%	0.41635	-31.24%	0.2386	✓	0.50
2026-06-01	oos	0.6317	0.572548	-9.36%	0.416	-34.15%	0.2303	✓	0.51
2026-05-31	oos	0.62555	0.567662	-9.25%	0.4175	-33.26%	0.1473	✓	0.70
2026-05-30	oos	0.6181	0.560361	-9.34%	0.4548	-26.42%	0.0648	✓	0.71
2026-05-29	oos	0.60905	0.551205	-9.50%	0.4599	-24.49%	0.0385	✓	0.68
2026-05-28	oos	0.6264	0.564316	-9.91%	0.45985	-26.59%	0.0664	✓	0.68
2026-05-27	oos	0.639	0.573783	-10.21%	0.4278	-33.05%	0.0797	✓	1.00
2026-05-26	oos	0.6087	0.54798	-9.98%	0.4346	-28.60%	0.0072	✓	1.00
2026-05-25	oos	0.6174	0.555333	-10.05%	0.4589	-25.67%	0.0457	✓	1.00
2026-05-24	oos	0.6173	0.554945	-10.10%	0.50205	-18.67%	0.1058	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.6524	0.584031	-10.48%	0.54155	-16.99%	0.1056	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.6387	0.570778	-10.63%	0.551	-13.73%	0.1413	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.6602	0.588728	-10.83%	0.5585	-15.40%	0.1358	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.6316	0.563933	-10.71%	0.56415	-10.68%	0.1997	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.5749	0.515933	-10.26%	0.603	+4.89%	0.3555	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.6347	0.569768	-10.23%	0.5519	-13.05%	0.1454	✗	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.7222	0.643818	-10.85%	0.55775	-22.77%	0.0218	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.763	0.677114	-11.26%	0.58475	-23.36%	0.0176	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.7118	0.638013	-10.37%	0.5825	-18.17%	0.0940	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.7403	0.669239	-9.60%	0.5929	-19.91%	0.1087	✗	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.7024	0.631175	-10.14%	0.6168	-12.19%	0.1984	✗	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.7669	0.687776	-10.32%	0.5536	-27.81%	0.0190	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.8004	0.720712	-9.96%	0.5864	-26.74%	0.0790	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.9108	0.809312	-11.14%	0.5821	-36.09%	0.0424	✓	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	1.0032	0.86266	-14.01%	0.6027	-39.92%	0.1125	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.8663	0.751926	-13.20%	0.6361	-26.57%	0.0692	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.6322	0.575515	-8.97%	0.6441	+1.88%	0.3863	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.