NIULAI

? · · beta_5y

token id: #227
symbol: NIULAI
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 168

Track record at +7d

assessed

49

of 56 predictions shown

direction hit

69.4%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1746

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0401

actual -0.0442

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	0.06274	0.060846	-3.02%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-21	oos	0.06254	0.060721	-2.91%	–	pending	–	–	1.55
2026-10-20	oos	0.0625	0.060448	-3.28%	–	pending	–	–	1.55
2026-10-19	oos	0.05795	0.056434	-2.62%	–	pending	–	–	1.53
2026-10-18	oos	0.058765	0.057174	-2.71%	–	pending	–	–	1.53
2026-10-17	oos	0.059455	0.057995	-2.45%	–	pending	–	–	1.53
2026-10-16	oos	0.065015	0.063114	-2.92%	–	pending	–	–	1.52
2026-10-15	oos	0.06738	0.065213	-3.22%	0.06274	-6.89%	0.0766	✓	1.51
2026-10-14	oos	0.06963	0.067305	-3.34%	0.06254	-10.18%	0.0943	✓	1.51
2026-10-13	oos	0.07463	0.071552	-4.12%	0.0625	-16.25%	0.1323	✓	1.48
2026-10-12	oos	0.07206	0.069559	-3.47%	0.05795	-19.58%	0.1843	✓	1.47
2026-10-11	oos	0.07927	0.075757	-4.43%	0.058765	-25.87%	0.2257	✓	1.40
2026-10-10	oos	0.080075	0.076476	-4.49%	0.059455	-25.75%	0.2256	✓	1.41
2026-10-09	oos	0.07419	0.071626	-3.46%	0.065015	-12.37%	0.0789	✓	1.41
2026-10-08	oos	0.0731	0.07083	-3.11%	0.06738	-7.82%	0.0573	✓	1.41
2026-10-07	oos	0.071685	0.069711	-2.75%	0.06963	-2.87%	0.0288	✗	1.44
2026-10-06	oos	0.079075	0.076044	-3.83%	0.07463	-5.62%	0.0204	✓	1.36
2026-10-05	oos	0.0768	0.074237	-3.34%	0.07206	-6.17%	0.0355	✗	1.36
2026-10-04	oos	0.08235	0.07918	-3.85%	0.07927	-3.74%	0.0452	✗	1.32
2026-10-03	oos	0.08011	0.077585	-3.15%	0.080075	-0.04%	0.0607	✗	1.33
2026-10-02	oos	0.08755	0.084421	-3.57%	0.07419	-15.26%	0.0981	✓	1.32
2026-10-01	oos	0.09927	0.095114	-4.19%	0.0731	-26.36%	0.2150	✓	1.27
2026-09-30	oos	0.104825	0.100232	-4.38%	0.071685	-31.61%	0.3308	✓	1.32
2026-09-29	oos	0.10513	0.100426	-4.47%	0.079075	-24.78%	0.2685	✓	1.31
2026-09-28	oos	0.115845	0.109802	-5.22%	0.0768	-33.70%	0.3927	✓	1.30
2026-09-27	oos	0.10403	0.099209	-4.63%	0.08235	-20.84%	0.2192	✓	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.10584	0.100867	-4.70%	0.08011	-24.31%	0.2357	✓	1.37
2026-09-25	oos	0.104305	0.099618	-4.49%	0.08755	-16.06%	0.1358	✓	1.37
2026-09-24	oos	0.10064	0.096434	-4.18%	0.09927	-1.36%	0.0214	✓	1.38
2026-09-23	oos	0.10741	0.102639	-4.44%	0.104825	-2.41%	0.0344	✓	1.36
2026-09-22	oos	0.112325	0.106964	-4.77%	0.10513	-6.41%	0.0222	✓	1.31
2026-09-21	oos	0.10777	0.103045	-4.38%	0.115845	+7.49%	0.1659	✗	1.32
2026-09-20	oos	0.10109	0.097954	-3.10%	0.10403	+2.91%	0.0017	✓	1.47
2026-09-19	oos	0.107915	0.104142	-3.50%	0.10584	-1.92%	0.0391	✓	1.44
2026-09-18	oos	0.11962	0.114425	-4.34%	0.104305	-12.80%	0.1485	✓	1.43
2026-09-17	oos	0.10627	0.102474	-3.57%	0.10064	-5.30%	0.1181	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.10055	0.097273	-3.26%	0.10741	+6.82%	0.0035	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.11971	0.113976	-4.79%	0.112325	-6.17%	0.1460	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.12225	0.116598	-4.62%	0.10777	-11.84%	0.1810	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.11709	0.111703	-4.60%	0.10109	-13.66%	0.1551	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.134925	0.128043	-5.10%	0.107915	-20.02%	0.2211	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.125765	0.119817	-4.73%	0.11962	-4.89%	0.0480	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.12138	0.114443	-5.72%	0.10627	-12.45%	0.0716	✓	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.078585	0.078476	-0.14%	0.10055	+27.95%	0.2756	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.102125	0.097988	-4.05%	0.11971	+17.22%	0.2374	✗	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.08165	0.078667	-3.65%	0.12225	+49.72%	0.4525	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.09102	0.086422	-5.05%	0.11709	+28.64%	0.3488	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.12056	0.114469	-5.05%	0.134925	+11.92%	0.1971	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.08412	0.080721	-4.04%	0.125765	+49.51%	0.4749	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.09631	0.092999	-3.44%	0.12138	+26.03%	0.3263	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07782	0.074186	-4.67%	0.078585	+0.98%	0.0451	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.08336	0.080063	-3.95%	0.102125	+22.51%	0.2299	✗	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.10287	0.098943	-3.82%	0.08165	-20.63%	0.1988	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.10148	0.095009	-6.38%	0.09102	-10.31%	0.0767	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.05494	0.054824	-0.21%	0.12056	+119.44%	0.7678	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.05606	0.055857	-0.36%	0.08412	+50.05%	0.3861	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.