NIULAI

? · · beta_5y

token id: #227
symbol: NIULAI
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 168

Track record at +1d

assessed

55

of 56 predictions shown

direction hit

54.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0906

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0084

actual +0.0007

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	0.06274	0.062354	-0.62%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-21	oos	0.06254	0.062183	-0.57%	0.06274	+0.70%	0.0091	✗	1.55
2026-10-20	oos	0.0625	0.062086	-0.66%	0.06254	+0.06%	0.0118	✗	1.55
2026-10-19	oos	0.05795	0.05769	-0.45%	0.0625	+7.85%	0.0596	✗	1.53
2026-10-18	oos	0.058765	0.058499	-0.45%	0.05795	-1.39%	0.0063	✓	1.53
2026-10-17	oos	0.059455	0.059227	-0.38%	0.058765	-1.16%	0.0196	✓	1.53
2026-10-16	oos	0.065015	0.064698	-0.49%	0.059455	-8.55%	0.0823	✓	1.52
2026-10-15	oos	0.06738	0.067026	-0.53%	0.065015	-3.51%	0.0190	✓	1.51
2026-10-14	oos	0.06963	0.069245	-0.55%	0.06738	-3.23%	0.0376	✓	1.51
2026-10-13	oos	0.07463	0.074067	-0.75%	0.06963	-6.70%	0.0343	✓	1.48
2026-10-12	oos	0.07206	0.071652	-0.57%	0.07463	+3.57%	0.0164	✗	1.47
2026-10-11	oos	0.07927	0.078614	-0.83%	0.07206	-9.10%	0.0543	✓	1.40
2026-10-10	oos	0.080075	0.079351	-0.90%	0.07927	-1.01%	0.0140	✓	1.41
2026-10-09	oos	0.07419	0.073771	-0.56%	0.080075	+7.93%	0.0758	✗	1.41
2026-10-08	oos	0.0731	0.072736	-0.50%	0.07419	+1.49%	0.0052	✗	1.41
2026-10-07	oos	0.071685	0.07142	-0.37%	0.0731	+1.97%	0.0509	✗	1.44
2026-10-06	oos	0.079075	0.078541	-0.67%	0.071685	-9.35%	0.0550	✓	1.36
2026-10-05	oos	0.0768	0.076405	-0.51%	0.079075	+2.96%	0.0377	✗	1.36
2026-10-04	oos	0.08235	0.081773	-0.70%	0.0768	-6.74%	0.0511	✓	1.32
2026-10-03	oos	0.08011	0.079719	-0.49%	0.08235	+2.80%	0.0050	✗	1.33
2026-10-02	oos	0.08755	0.087017	-0.61%	0.08011	-8.50%	0.0864	✓	1.32
2026-10-01	oos	0.09927	0.098462	-0.81%	0.08755	-11.81%	0.1123	✓	1.27
2026-09-30	oos	0.104825	0.103891	-0.89%	0.09927	-5.30%	0.0657	✓	1.32
2026-09-29	oos	0.10513	0.104207	-0.88%	0.104825	-0.29%	0.0072	✓	1.31
2026-09-28	oos	0.115845	0.114421	-1.23%	0.10513	-9.25%	0.0875	✓	1.30
2026-09-27	oos	0.10403	0.103049	-0.94%	0.115845	+11.36%	0.1335	✗	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.10584	0.104805	-0.98%	0.10403	-1.71%	0.0082	✓	1.37
2026-09-25	oos	0.104305	0.103349	-0.92%	0.10584	+1.47%	0.0186	✗	1.37
2026-09-24	oos	0.10064	0.099864	-0.77%	0.104305	+3.64%	0.0483	✗	1.38
2026-09-23	oos	0.10741	0.106463	-0.88%	0.10064	-6.30%	0.0564	✓	1.36
2026-09-22	oos	0.112325	0.111173	-1.03%	0.10741	-4.38%	0.0065	✓	1.31
2026-09-21	oos	0.10777	0.106782	-0.92%	0.112325	+4.23%	0.0567	✗	1.32
2026-09-20	oos	0.10109	0.100508	-0.58%	0.10777	+6.61%	0.0253	✓	1.47
2026-09-19	oos	0.107915	0.107157	-0.70%	0.10109	-6.32%	0.0570	✓	1.44
2026-09-18	oos	0.11962	0.118342	-1.07%	0.107915	-9.79%	0.0986	✓	1.43
2026-09-17	oos	0.10627	0.105431	-0.79%	0.11962	+12.56%	0.0687	✗	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.10055	0.099951	-0.60%	0.10627	+5.69%	0.0586	✗	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.11971	0.118492	-1.02%	0.10055	-16.01%	0.1716	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.12225	0.121043	-0.99%	0.11971	-2.08%	0.0226	✗	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.11709	0.116057	-0.88%	0.12225	+4.41%	0.0342	✗	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.134925	0.133347	-1.17%	0.11709	-13.22%	0.1240	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.125765	0.124273	-1.19%	0.134925	+7.28%	0.0815	✗	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.12138	0.119092	-1.88%	0.125765	+3.61%	0.0458	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.078585	0.078555	-0.04%	0.12138	+54.46%	0.4577	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.102125	0.101002	-1.10%	0.078585	-23.05%	0.2489	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.08165	0.081096	-0.68%	0.102125	+25.08%	0.2387	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.09102	0.090131	-0.98%	0.08165	-10.29%	0.0832	✓	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.12056	0.118661	-1.58%	0.09102	-24.50%	0.2715	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.08412	0.083385	-0.87%	0.12056	+43.32%	0.3667	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.09631	0.095303	-1.05%	0.08412	-12.66%	0.1051	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07782	0.077108	-0.92%	0.09631	+23.76%	0.1725	✗	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.08336	0.082668	-0.83%	0.07782	-6.65%	0.0592	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.10287	0.101558	-1.28%	0.08336	-18.97%	0.1825	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.10148	0.098575	-2.86%	0.10287	+1.37%	0.0312	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.05494	0.054723	-0.39%	0.10148	+84.71%	0.6249	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.05606	0.055734	-0.58%	0.05494	-2.00%	0.0194	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.