MICRODUCK

microduck · Robinhood · beta_5y

token id: #784
symbol: MICRODUCK
variant: –
chain: Robinhood
address: 0xd5f1afea47b1a9eab414d2ee740cf1d6d039e725
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-29
predictions: 138

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

of 46 predictions shown

direction hit

57.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1474

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

+0.0008

actual -0.0498

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	0.003037	0.002979	-1.90%	–	pending	–	–	1.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.001936	0.001919	-0.88%	0.003037	+1.71%	0.0239	✗	0.82
2026-10-20	oos	0.0018	0.001786	-0.74%	0.001936	+7.59%	0.0830	✗	0.84
2026-10-19	oos	0.001942	0.001925	-0.87%	0.0018	-7.34%	0.0792	✓	0.88
2026-10-18	oos	0.001786	0.001776	-0.58%	0.001942	+8.73%	0.0914	✗	0.90
2026-10-17	oos	0.002094	0.002077	-0.79%	0.001786	-14.71%	0.1584	✓	0.95
2026-10-16	oos	0.002361	0.002337	-1.03%	0.002094	-11.33%	0.1085	✓	0.94
2026-10-15	oos	0.002423	0.002394	-1.21%	0.002361	-2.54%	0.0063	✓	0.95
2026-10-14	oos	0.002253	0.00223	-1.01%	0.002423	+7.55%	0.0767	✗	0.91
2026-10-13	oos	0.002043	0.00203	-0.63%	0.002253	+10.28%	0.1247	✗	1.10
2026-10-12	oos	0.002155	0.002138	-0.76%	0.002043	-5.18%	0.0640	✓	1.12
2026-10-11	oos	0.001829	0.001826	-0.18%	0.002155	+17.76%	0.2003	✗	1.50
2026-10-10	oos	0.001829	0.001829	-0.02%	0.001829	+0.03%	0.0131	✓	1.47
2026-10-09	oos	0.001849	0.001851	+0.13%	0.001829	-1.05%	0.0184	✗	1.47
2026-10-08	oos	0.002105	0.002105	-0.01%	0.001849	-12.19%	0.1456	✓	1.52
2026-10-07	oos	0.002412	0.002407	-0.19%	0.002105	-12.73%	0.1064	✓	1.45
2026-10-06	oos	0.00238	0.00238	+0.00%	0.002412	+1.34%	0.0579	✓	1.66
2026-10-05	oos	0.002877	0.002859	-0.62%	0.00238	-17.27%	0.1795	✓	1.62
2026-10-04	oos	0.002327	0.002328	+0.09%	0.002877	+23.66%	0.2278	✓	1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.001718	0.001736	+1.07%	0.002327	+35.42%	0.2634	✓	1.42
2026-10-02	oos	0.001685	0.001706	+1.29%	0.001718	+1.99%	0.0029	✓	1.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.001688	0.001713	+1.49%	0.001685	-0.21%	0.0110	✓	1.45
2026-09-30	oos	0.00239	0.002415	+1.05%	0.001688	-29.37%	0.3848	✗	1.73
2026-09-29	oos	0.003095	0.003112	+0.56%	0.00239	-22.77%	0.2623	✗	1.69
2026-09-28	oos	0.003635	0.003644	+0.24%	0.003095	-14.88%	0.1672	✗	1.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.00367	0.003683	+0.37%	0.003635	-0.94%	0.0011	✓	1.00
2026-09-26	oos	0.004564	0.004561	-0.06%	0.00367	-19.59%	0.2180	✓	1.00
2026-09-25	oos	0.004941	0.004931	-0.21%	0.004564	-7.64%	0.0812	✓	1.00
2026-09-24	oos	0.004495	0.004503	+0.17%	0.004941	+9.93%	0.0965	✓	1.00
2026-09-23	oos	0.004587	0.004598	+0.25%	0.004495	-2.01%	0.0228	✗	1.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.004842	0.004852	+0.20%	0.004587	-5.27%	0.0348	✗	1.00
2026-09-21	oos	0.005348	0.005348	+0.00%	0.004842	-9.46%	0.0948	✗	1.00
2026-09-20	oos	0.004465	0.004493	+0.63%	0.005348	+19.78%	0.1094	✓	1.00
2026-09-19	oos	0.004269	0.004308	+0.90%	0.004465	+4.59%	0.0368	✓	1.00
2026-09-18	oos	0.005603	0.005633	+0.53%	0.004269	-23.81%	0.2816	✗	1.00
2026-09-17	oos	0.005509	0.005543	+0.62%	0.005603	+1.71%	0.0469	✗	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004398	+1.24%	0.005509	+26.82%	0.2226	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.005922	0.005981	+0.99%	0.004344	-26.65%	0.3271	✗	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.008547	0.008581	+0.39%	0.005922	-30.71%	0.3371	✗	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.006287	0.006354	+1.08%	0.008547	+35.96%	0.2787	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.008404	0.008464	+0.71%	0.006287	-25.20%	0.2914	✗	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.006361	0.006381	+0.31%	0.008404	+32.11%	0.2746	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.008453	0.008497	+0.52%	0.006361	-24.74%	0.2982	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.010485	0.010457	-0.27%	0.008453	-19.38%	0.1902	✓	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.017855	0.017787	-0.38%	0.010485	-41.28%	0.5264	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.018005	0.017885	-0.66%	0.017855	-0.83%	0.0065	✓	1.00