DRV

Derive · Ethereum · beta_5y

token id: #111
symbol: DRV
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-28
predictions: 417

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

132

of 139 predictions shown

direction hit

57.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1609

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0250

actual +0.0595

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	0.40159	0.389778	-2.94%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-21	oos	0.386075	0.375643	-2.70%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-20	oos	0.398745	0.3875	-2.82%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-19	oos	0.39882	0.38796	-2.72%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-18	oos	0.38187	0.373166	-2.28%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-17	oos	0.403015	0.391735	-2.80%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-16	oos	0.387205	0.377259	-2.57%	–	pending	–	–	1.42
2026-10-15	oos	0.41127	0.399027	-2.98%	0.40159	-2.35%	0.0285	✓	1.39
2026-10-14	oos	0.416385	0.405684	-2.57%	0.386075	-7.28%	0.0687	✓	1.39
2026-10-13	oos	0.450845	0.436368	-3.21%	0.398745	-11.56%	0.0874	✓	1.38
2026-10-12	oos	0.4408	0.426067	-3.34%	0.39882	-9.52%	0.0677	✓	1.40
2026-10-11	oos	0.49633	0.477593	-3.78%	0.38187	-23.06%	0.1921	✓	1.57
2026-10-10	oos	0.538615	0.515396	-4.31%	0.403015	-25.18%	0.2161	✓	1.61
2026-10-09	oos	0.515775	0.4887	-5.25%	0.387205	-24.93%	0.2123	✓	1.61
2026-10-08	oos	0.436745	0.414246	-5.15%	0.41127	-5.83%	0.0154	✓	1.57
2026-10-07	oos	0.373545	0.358824	-3.94%	0.416385	+11.47%	0.1834	✗	1.67
2026-10-06	oos	0.407595	0.388704	-4.63%	0.450845	+10.61%	0.1955	✗	1.63
2026-10-05	oos	0.41208	0.391783	-4.93%	0.4408	+6.97%	0.1957	✗	1.63
2026-10-04	oos	0.41695	0.395418	-5.16%	0.49633	+19.04%	0.2816	✗	1.63
2026-10-03	oos	0.38453	0.366186	-4.77%	0.538615	+40.07%	0.4211	✗	1.61
2026-10-02	oos	0.39644	0.377196	-4.85%	0.515775	+30.10%	0.3508	✗	1.62
2026-10-01	oos	0.395175	0.375253	-5.04%	0.436745	+10.52%	0.2127	✗	1.61
2026-09-30	oos	0.38983	0.371077	-4.81%	0.373545	-4.18%	0.0120	✓	1.60
2026-09-29	oos	0.381685	0.363468	-4.77%	0.407595	+6.79%	0.0787	✗	1.59
2026-09-28	oos	0.36952	0.353407	-4.36%	0.41208	+11.52%	0.1119	✗	1.54
2026-09-27	oos	0.43524	0.414071	-4.86%	0.41695	-4.20%	0.0262	✓	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.412955	0.394864	-4.38%	0.38453	-6.88%	0.0319	✓	1.39
2026-09-25	oos	0.44425	0.425128	-4.30%	0.39644	-10.76%	0.0764	✓	1.34
2026-09-24	oos	0.45364	0.433266	-4.49%	0.395175	-12.89%	0.0993	✓	1.33
2026-09-23	oos	0.48606	0.458125	-5.75%	0.38983	-19.80%	0.1485	✓	1.32
2026-09-22	oos	0.436315	0.412505	-5.46%	0.381685	-12.52%	0.0357	✓	1.39
2026-09-21	oos	0.4043	0.382342	-5.43%	0.36952	-8.60%	0.0183	✓	1.42
2026-09-20	oos	0.391515	0.369743	-5.56%	0.43524	+11.17%	0.1015	✗	1.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.446505	0.407765	-8.68%	0.412955	-7.51%	0.0455	✓	1.51
2026-09-18	oos	0.29519	0.277471	-6.00%	0.44425	+50.50%	0.4110	✗	1.53
2026-09-17	oos	0.25509	0.240906	-5.56%	0.45364	+77.84%	0.4880	✗	1.45
2026-09-16	oos	0.24457	0.226182	-7.52%	0.48606	+98.74%	0.6167	✗	1.44
2026-09-15	oos	0.13705	0.135724	-0.97%	0.436315	+218.36%	0.9891	✗	1.36
2026-09-14	oos	0.140985	0.140326	-0.47%	0.4043	+186.77%	0.9172	✗	1.38
2026-09-13	oos	0.14356	0.142953	-0.42%	0.391515	+172.72%	0.9301	✗	1.40
2026-09-12	oos	0.14992	0.149929	+0.01%	0.446505	+197.83%	1.0215	✓	1.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.148505	0.149274	+0.52%	0.29519	+98.77%	0.6180	✓	1.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.147705	0.148721	+0.69%	0.25509	+72.70%	0.5429	✓	1.37
2026-09-09	oos	0.154095	0.155898	+1.17%	0.24457	+58.71%	0.4879	✓	1.36
2026-09-08	oos	0.16393	0.165638	+1.04%	0.13705	-16.40%	0.1390	✗	1.36
2026-09-07	oos	0.1575	0.160288	+1.77%	0.140985	-10.49%	0.1122	✗	1.39
2026-09-06	oos	0.16514	0.168866	+2.26%	0.14356	-13.07%	0.0996	✗	1.39
2026-09-05	oos	0.17224	0.174178	+1.13%	0.14992	-12.96%	0.1047	✗	1.38
2026-09-04	oos	0.14964	0.152549	+1.94%	0.148505	-0.76%	0.0190	✓	1.46
2026-09-03	oos	0.15856	0.160679	+1.34%	0.147705	-6.85%	0.0015	✓	1.43
2026-09-02	oos	0.14371	0.145227	+1.06%	0.154095	+7.23%	0.0403	✓	1.51
2026-09-01	oos	0.14284	0.144333	+1.05%	0.16393	+14.76%	0.1070	✓	1.51
2026-08-31	oos	0.153755	0.154915	+0.75%	0.1575	+2.44%	0.0081	✓	1.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.15632	0.156958	+0.41%	0.16514	+5.64%	0.0081	✓	1.26
2026-08-29	oos	0.1719	0.171721	-0.10%	0.17224	+0.20%	0.0189	✓	1.08
2026-08-28	oos	0.16944	0.168473	-0.57%	0.14964	-11.69%	0.1438	✓	1.08
2026-08-27	oos	0.17649	0.174085	-1.36%	0.15856	-10.16%	0.1065	✓	1.07
2026-08-26	oos	0.166915	0.163726	-1.91%	0.14371	-13.90%	0.1071	✓	1.06
2026-08-25	oos	0.14804	0.146061	-1.34%	0.14284	-3.51%	0.0072	✓	1.04
2026-08-24	oos	0.163815	0.157847	-3.64%	0.153755	-6.14%	0.0208	✓	1.03
2026-08-23	oos	0.13109	0.128537	-1.95%	0.15632	+19.25%	0.1965	✗	0.95
2026-08-22	oos	0.11334	0.112394	-0.83%	0.1719	+51.67%	0.4109	✗	0.92
2026-08-21	oos	0.11888	0.116273	-2.19%	0.16944	+42.53%	0.3822	✗	0.91
2026-08-20	oos	0.098475	0.097846	-0.64%	0.17649	+79.22%	0.5273	✗	0.66
2026-08-19	oos	0.09869	0.097089	-1.62%	0.166915	+69.13%	0.4466	✗	0.73
2026-08-18	oos	0.093475	0.091668	-1.93%	0.14804	+58.37%	0.3393	✗	0.72
2026-08-17	oos	0.095765	0.093552	-2.31%	0.163815	+71.06%	0.4127	✗	0.73
2026-08-16	oos	0.10351	0.098805	-4.55%	0.13109	+26.64%	0.1055	✗	0.83
2026-08-15	oos	0.092975	0.091175	-1.94%	0.11334	+21.90%	0.0493	✗	0.84
2026-08-14	oos	0.09274	0.090986	-1.89%	0.11888	+28.19%	0.0848	✗	0.84
2026-08-13	oos	0.09498	0.093116	-1.96%	0.098475	+3.68%	0.0613	✓	0.83
2026-08-12	oos	0.09864	0.096425	-2.25%	0.09869	+0.05%	0.0511	✓	0.84
2026-08-11	oos	0.097635	0.095342	-2.35%	0.093475	-4.26%	0.0348	✓	0.84
2026-08-10	oos	0.093365	0.091607	-1.88%	0.095765	+2.57%	0.0370	✗	0.84
2026-08-09	oos	0.09707	0.095274	-1.85%	0.10351	+6.63%	0.1090	✗	0.83
2026-08-08	oos	0.09736	0.09558	-1.83%	0.092975	-4.50%	0.0031	✓	0.83
2026-08-07	oos	0.096885	0.09514	-1.80%	0.09274	-4.28%	0.0007	✓	0.83
2026-08-06	oos	0.097805	0.095976	-1.87%	0.09498	-2.89%	0.0006	✓	0.84
2026-08-05	oos	0.100875	0.098862	-2.00%	0.09864	-2.22%	0.0133	✓	0.83
2026-08-04	oos	0.10167	0.099267	-2.36%	0.097635	-3.97%	0.0097	✓	0.84
2026-08-03	oos	0.09716	0.095292	-1.92%	0.093365	-3.91%	0.0262	✓	0.83
2026-08-02	oos	0.0997	0.097823	-1.88%	0.09707	-2.64%	0.0252	✓	0.83
2026-08-01	oos	0.105755	0.103149	-2.46%	0.09736	-7.94%	0.0870	✓	0.87
2026-07-31	oos	0.116685	0.111328	-4.59%	0.096885	-16.97%	0.1673	✓	0.88
2026-07-30	oos	0.094575	0.093064	-1.60%	0.097805	+3.42%	0.0577	✗	1.14
2026-07-29	oos	0.09668	0.095023	-1.71%	0.100875	+4.34%	0.0470	✗	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.10316	0.101323	-1.78%	0.10167	-1.44%	0.0003	✓	1.17
2026-07-27	oos	0.105835	0.103896	-1.83%	0.09716	-8.20%	0.0628	✓	1.18
2026-07-26	oos	0.114575	0.112364	-1.93%	0.0997	-12.98%	0.0875	✓	1.12
2026-07-25	oos	0.113675	0.111476	-1.93%	0.105755	-6.97%	0.0253	✓	1.14
2026-07-24	oos	0.11498	0.112718	-1.97%	0.116685	+1.48%	0.0572	✗	1.14
2026-07-23	oos	0.119115	0.116749	-1.99%	0.094575	-20.60%	0.2049	✓	1.13
2026-07-22	oos	0.121595	0.119199	-1.97%	0.09668	-20.49%	0.1717	✓	1.12
2026-07-21	oos	0.11994	0.117698	-1.87%	0.10316	-13.99%	0.0859	✓	1.12
2026-07-20	oos	0.123715	0.121155	-2.07%	0.105835	-14.45%	0.1073	✓	1.18
2026-07-19	oos	0.12307	0.12064	-1.97%	0.114575	-6.90%	0.0637	✓	1.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.1261	0.123483	-2.08%	0.113675	-9.85%	0.0735	✓	1.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.129925	0.127158	-2.13%	0.11498	-11.50%	0.1043	✓	1.24
2026-07-16	oos	0.135285	0.132251	-2.24%	0.119115	-11.95%	0.1294	✓	1.25
2026-07-15	oos	0.145845	0.141312	-3.11%	0.121595	-16.63%	0.1756	✓	1.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.1552	0.147236	-5.13%	0.11994	-22.72%	0.2330	✓	1.20
2026-07-13	oos	0.116895	0.114523	-2.03%	0.123715	+5.83%	0.0448	✗	0.70
2026-07-12	oos	0.12333	0.120439	-2.34%	0.12307	-0.21%	0.0121	✓	0.65
2026-07-11	oos	0.12402	0.120986	-2.45%	0.1261	+1.68%	0.0310	✗	0.65
2026-07-10	oos	0.11772	0.114601	-2.65%	0.129925	+10.37%	0.1279	✗	0.66
2026-07-09	oos	0.11437	0.111736	-2.30%	0.135285	+18.29%	0.1851	✗	0.65
2026-07-08	oos	0.10905	0.106858	-2.01%	0.145845	+33.74%	0.2868	✗	0.62
2026-07-07	oos	0.11054	0.108153	-2.16%	0.1552	+40.40%	0.3453	✗	0.61
2026-07-06	oos	0.11365	0.111036	-2.30%	0.116895	+2.86%	0.0679	✗	0.60
2026-07-05	oos	0.11218	0.109745	-2.17%	0.12333	+9.94%	0.1152	✗	0.60
2026-07-04	oos	0.10767	0.1054	-2.11%	0.12402	+15.19%	0.1564	✗	0.58
2026-07-03	oos	0.11031	0.107636	-2.42%	0.11772	+6.72%	0.0739	✗	0.61
2026-07-02	oos	0.112105	0.109322	-2.48%	0.11437	+2.02%	0.0272	✗	0.66
2026-07-01	oos	0.10732	0.104215	-2.89%	0.10905	+1.61%	0.0217	✓	0.64
2026-06-30	oos	0.11361	0.109593	-3.54%	0.11054	-2.70%	0.0547	✓	0.80
2026-06-29	oos	0.10568	0.102684	-2.84%	0.11365	+7.54%	0.0450	✗	0.91
2026-06-28	oos	0.10167	0.097897	-3.71%	0.11218	+10.34%	0.0763	✗	0.90
2026-06-27	oos	0.08732	0.085492	-2.09%	0.10767	+23.31%	0.1843	✗	0.91
2026-06-26	oos	0.08296	0.081374	-1.91%	0.11031	+32.97%	0.2631	✗	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.08304	0.081439	-1.93%	0.112105	+35.00%	0.2902	✗	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.082775	0.081214	-1.89%	0.10732	+29.65%	0.2956	✗	1.00
2026-06-23	oos	0.08616	0.084499	-1.93%	0.11361	+31.86%	0.3641	✗	1.00
2026-06-22	oos	0.087275	0.085698	-1.81%	0.10568	+21.09%	0.2706	✗	1.00
2026-06-21	oos	0.090795	0.089031	-1.94%	0.10167	+11.98%	0.1941	✗	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.098535	0.096397	-2.17%	0.08732	-11.38%	0.0298	✓	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	0.09513	0.093124	-2.11%	0.08296	-12.79%	0.0593	✓	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	0.09407	0.09214	-2.05%	0.08304	-11.73%	0.0522	✓	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	0.09792	0.095814	-2.15%	0.082775	-15.47%	0.0910	✓	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	0.10043	0.098031	-2.39%	0.08616	-14.21%	0.0827	✓	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	0.102	0.099581	-2.37%	0.087275	-14.44%	0.0962	✓	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	0.10087	0.098417	-2.43%	0.090795	-9.99%	0.0423	✓	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	0.10077	0.098329	-2.42%	0.098535	-2.22%	0.0053	✓	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	0.10217	0.099543	-2.57%	0.09513	-6.89%	0.0443	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.10434	0.101368	-2.85%	0.09407	-9.84%	0.0639	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.0986	0.096042	-2.59%	0.09792	-0.69%	0.0283	✓	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.10506	0.101905	-3.00%	0.10043	-4.41%	0.0764	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.11139	0.106733	-4.18%	0.102	-8.43%	0.0951	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.10365	0.100045	-3.48%	0.10087	-2.68%	0.0291	✓	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.09153	0.089166	-2.58%	0.10077	+10.10%	0.0652	✗	1.00