DRV

Derive · Ethereum · beta_5y

token id: #111
symbol: DRV
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-28
predictions: 417

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

138

of 139 predictions shown

direction hit

58.7%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0533

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0086

actual +0.0086

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	0.40159	0.398941	-0.66%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-21	oos	0.386075	0.383872	-0.57%	0.40159	-0.13%	0.0011	✓	1.43
2026-10-20	oos	0.398745	0.396145	-0.65%	0.386075	-3.18%	0.0216	✓	1.43
2026-10-19	oos	0.39882	0.396147	-0.67%	0.398745	-0.02%	0.0126	✓	1.43
2026-10-18	oos	0.38187	0.380036	-0.48%	0.39882	+4.44%	0.0511	✗	1.41
2026-10-17	oos	0.403015	0.40028	-0.68%	0.38187	-5.25%	0.0579	✓	1.41
2026-10-16	oos	0.387205	0.385229	-0.51%	0.403015	+4.08%	0.0472	✗	1.42
2026-10-15	oos	0.41127	0.408716	-0.62%	0.387205	-5.85%	0.0435	✓	1.39
2026-10-14	oos	0.416385	0.414306	-0.50%	0.41127	-1.23%	0.0168	✓	1.39
2026-10-13	oos	0.450845	0.447524	-0.74%	0.416385	-7.64%	0.0463	✓	1.38
2026-10-12	oos	0.4408	0.437973	-0.64%	0.450845	+2.28%	0.0059	✓	1.40
2026-10-11	oos	0.49633	0.492318	-0.81%	0.4408	-11.19%	0.0739	✓	1.57
2026-10-10	oos	0.538615	0.532607	-1.12%	0.49633	-7.85%	0.0853	✓	1.61
2026-10-09	oos	0.515775	0.506971	-1.71%	0.538615	+4.43%	0.0534	✗	1.61
2026-10-08	oos	0.436745	0.429743	-1.60%	0.515775	+18.10%	0.1662	✗	1.57
2026-10-07	oos	0.373545	0.370409	-0.84%	0.436745	+16.92%	0.1968	✗	1.67
2026-10-06	oos	0.407595	0.403309	-1.05%	0.373545	-8.35%	0.0328	✓	1.63
2026-10-05	oos	0.41208	0.407386	-1.14%	0.407595	-1.09%	0.0045	✓	1.63
2026-10-04	oos	0.41695	0.411501	-1.31%	0.41208	-1.17%	0.0158	✗	1.63
2026-10-03	oos	0.38453	0.380524	-1.04%	0.41695	+8.43%	0.0582	✗	1.61
2026-10-02	oos	0.39644	0.392159	-1.08%	0.38453	-3.00%	0.0242	✓	1.62
2026-10-01	oos	0.395175	0.390335	-1.22%	0.39644	+0.32%	0.0220	✗	1.61
2026-09-30	oos	0.38983	0.385467	-1.12%	0.395175	+1.37%	0.0004	✓	1.60
2026-09-29	oos	0.381685	0.377457	-1.11%	0.38983	+2.13%	0.0338	✗	1.59
2026-09-28	oos	0.36952	0.366337	-0.86%	0.381685	+3.29%	0.0377	✗	1.54
2026-09-27	oos	0.43524	0.429402	-1.34%	0.36952	-15.10%	0.1336	✓	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.412955	0.408633	-1.05%	0.43524	+5.40%	0.0623	✗	1.39
2026-09-25	oos	0.44425	0.439324	-1.11%	0.412955	-7.04%	0.0671	✓	1.34
2026-09-24	oos	0.45364	0.447679	-1.31%	0.44425	-2.07%	0.0031	✓	1.33
2026-09-23	oos	0.48606	0.475625	-2.15%	0.45364	-6.67%	0.0474	✓	1.32
2026-09-22	oos	0.436315	0.427795	-1.95%	0.48606	+11.40%	0.1574	✗	1.39
2026-09-21	oos	0.4043	0.396232	-2.00%	0.436315	+7.92%	0.1029	✗	1.42
2026-09-20	oos	0.391515	0.38332	-2.09%	0.4043	+3.27%	0.0469	✓	1.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.446505	0.42864	-4.00%	0.391515	-12.32%	0.0892	✓	1.51
2026-09-18	oos	0.29519	0.28763	-2.56%	0.446505	+51.26%	0.4330	✗	1.53
2026-09-17	oos	0.25509	0.248973	-2.40%	0.29519	+15.72%	0.0869	✗	1.45
2026-09-16	oos	0.24457	0.23575	-3.61%	0.25509	+4.30%	0.0750	✗	1.44
2026-09-15	oos	0.13705	0.136522	-0.39%	0.24457	+78.45%	0.5730	✗	1.36
2026-09-14	oos	0.140985	0.140486	-0.35%	0.13705	-2.79%	0.0217	✗	1.38
2026-09-13	oos	0.14356	0.143135	-0.30%	0.140985	-1.79%	0.0400	✓	1.40
2026-09-12	oos	0.14992	0.149529	-0.26%	0.14356	-4.24%	0.0324	✓	1.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.148505	0.148191	-0.21%	0.14992	+0.95%	0.0106	✗	1.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.147705	0.147469	-0.16%	0.148505	+0.54%	0.0049	✓	1.37
2026-09-09	oos	0.154095	0.153837	-0.17%	0.147705	-4.15%	0.0100	✓	1.36
2026-09-08	oos	0.16393	0.163504	-0.26%	0.154095	-6.00%	0.0564	✓	1.36
2026-09-07	oos	0.1575	0.157414	-0.05%	0.16393	+4.08%	0.0519	✗	1.39
2026-09-06	oos	0.16514	0.165	-0.08%	0.1575	-4.63%	0.0247	✓	1.39
2026-09-05	oos	0.17224	0.171102	-0.66%	0.16514	-4.12%	0.0442	✓	1.38
2026-09-04	oos	0.14964	0.149358	-0.19%	0.17224	+15.10%	0.1397	✗	1.46
2026-09-03	oos	0.15856	0.157669	-0.56%	0.14964	-5.63%	0.0240	✓	1.43
2026-09-02	oos	0.14371	0.143298	-0.29%	0.15856	+10.33%	0.0259	✗	1.51
2026-09-01	oos	0.14284	0.142458	-0.27%	0.14371	+0.61%	0.0105	✗	1.51
2026-08-31	oos	0.153755	0.153152	-0.39%	0.14284	-7.10%	0.0510	✓	1.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.15632	0.155632	-0.44%	0.153755	-1.64%	0.0266	✓	1.26
2026-08-29	oos	0.1719	0.170642	-0.73%	0.15632	-9.06%	0.0798	✓	1.08
2026-08-28	oos	0.16944	0.167884	-0.92%	0.1719	+1.45%	0.0182	✗	1.08
2026-08-27	oos	0.17649	0.174081	-1.37%	0.16944	-3.99%	0.0059	✓	1.07
2026-08-26	oos	0.166915	0.164393	-1.51%	0.17649	+5.74%	0.0544	✗	1.06
2026-08-25	oos	0.14804	0.146388	-1.12%	0.166915	+12.75%	0.1246	✗	1.04
2026-08-24	oos	0.163815	0.160255	-2.17%	0.14804	-9.63%	0.0734	✓	1.03
2026-08-23	oos	0.13109	0.129371	-1.31%	0.163815	+24.96%	0.2209	✗	0.95
2026-08-22	oos	0.11334	0.112353	-0.87%	0.13109	+15.66%	0.1462	✗	0.92
2026-08-21	oos	0.11888	0.116953	-1.62%	0.11334	-4.66%	0.0166	✓	0.91
2026-08-20	oos	0.098475	0.097964	-0.52%	0.11888	+20.72%	0.1472	✗	0.66
2026-08-19	oos	0.09869	0.098062	-0.64%	0.098475	-0.22%	0.0336	✓	0.73
2026-08-18	oos	0.093475	0.092951	-0.56%	0.09869	+5.58%	0.0101	✗	0.72
2026-08-17	oos	0.095765	0.095037	-0.76%	0.093475	-2.39%	0.0189	✓	0.73
2026-08-16	oos	0.10351	0.101538	-1.91%	0.095765	-7.48%	0.0800	✓	0.83
2026-08-15	oos	0.092975	0.092489	-0.52%	0.10351	+11.33%	0.1150	✗	0.84
2026-08-14	oos	0.09274	0.092283	-0.49%	0.092975	+0.25%	0.0069	✗	0.84
2026-08-13	oos	0.09498	0.094499	-0.51%	0.09274	-2.36%	0.0129	✓	0.83
2026-08-12	oos	0.09864	0.098042	-0.61%	0.09498	-3.71%	0.0319	✓	0.84
2026-08-11	oos	0.097635	0.096955	-0.70%	0.09864	+1.03%	0.0188	✗	0.84
2026-08-10	oos	0.093365	0.092874	-0.53%	0.097635	+4.57%	0.0550	✗	0.84
2026-08-09	oos	0.09707	0.096569	-0.52%	0.093365	-3.82%	0.0217	✓	0.83
2026-08-08	oos	0.09736	0.096864	-0.51%	0.09707	-0.30%	0.0029	✓	0.83
2026-08-07	oos	0.096885	0.096403	-0.50%	0.09736	+0.49%	0.0097	✗	0.83
2026-08-06	oos	0.097805	0.097323	-0.49%	0.096885	-0.94%	0.0126	✓	0.84
2026-08-05	oos	0.100875	0.100316	-0.55%	0.097805	-3.04%	0.0210	✓	0.83
2026-08-04	oos	0.10167	0.10092	-0.74%	0.100875	-0.78%	0.0077	✓	0.84
2026-08-03	oos	0.09716	0.096644	-0.53%	0.10167	+4.64%	0.0431	✗	0.83
2026-08-02	oos	0.0997	0.099194	-0.51%	0.09716	-2.55%	0.0203	✓	0.83
2026-08-01	oos	0.105755	0.104958	-0.75%	0.0997	-5.73%	0.0615	✓	0.87
2026-07-31	oos	0.116685	0.11444	-1.92%	0.105755	-9.37%	0.0781	✓	0.88
2026-07-30	oos	0.094575	0.094158	-0.44%	0.116685	+23.38%	0.2483	✗	1.14
2026-07-29	oos	0.09668	0.096179	-0.52%	0.094575	-2.18%	0.0317	✓	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.10316	0.102626	-0.52%	0.09668	-6.28%	0.0606	✓	1.17
2026-07-27	oos	0.105835	0.105262	-0.54%	0.10316	-2.53%	0.0230	✓	1.18
2026-07-26	oos	0.114575	0.113877	-0.61%	0.105835	-7.63%	0.0446	✓	1.12
2026-07-25	oos	0.113675	0.113002	-0.59%	0.114575	+0.79%	0.0045	✓	1.14
2026-07-24	oos	0.11498	0.11428	-0.61%	0.113675	-1.13%	0.0091	✓	1.14
2026-07-23	oos	0.119115	0.118371	-0.62%	0.11498	-3.47%	0.0122	✓	1.13
2026-07-22	oos	0.121595	0.120817	-0.64%	0.119115	-2.04%	0.0035	✓	1.12
2026-07-21	oos	0.11994	0.119205	-0.61%	0.121595	+1.38%	0.0271	✗	1.12
2026-07-20	oos	0.123715	0.122904	-0.66%	0.11994	-3.05%	0.0478	✓	1.18
2026-07-19	oos	0.12307	0.122334	-0.60%	0.123715	+0.52%	0.0015	✓	1.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.1261	0.125269	-0.66%	0.12307	-2.40%	0.0156	✓	1.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.129925	0.129083	-0.65%	0.1261	-2.94%	0.0407	✓	1.24
2026-07-16	oos	0.135285	0.13434	-0.70%	0.129925	-3.96%	0.0358	✓	1.25
2026-07-15	oos	0.145845	0.144059	-1.22%	0.135285	-7.24%	0.0450	✓	1.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.1552	0.151513	-2.38%	0.145845	-6.03%	0.0331	✓	1.20
2026-07-13	oos	0.116895	0.116231	-0.57%	0.1552	+32.77%	0.2592	✗	0.70
2026-07-12	oos	0.12333	0.122416	-0.74%	0.116895	-5.22%	0.0309	✓	0.65
2026-07-11	oos	0.12402	0.123049	-0.78%	0.12333	-0.56%	0.0026	✓	0.65
2026-07-10	oos	0.11772	0.116608	-0.94%	0.12402	+5.35%	0.0653	✗	0.66
2026-07-09	oos	0.11437	0.113554	-0.71%	0.11772	+2.93%	0.0263	✗	0.65
2026-07-08	oos	0.10905	0.108441	-0.56%	0.11437	+4.88%	0.0439	✗	0.62
2026-07-07	oos	0.11054	0.109823	-0.65%	0.10905	-1.35%	0.0035	✓	0.61
2026-07-06	oos	0.11365	0.112844	-0.71%	0.11054	-2.74%	0.0142	✓	0.60
2026-07-05	oos	0.11218	0.11148	-0.62%	0.11365	+1.31%	0.0153	✗	0.60
2026-07-04	oos	0.10767	0.107014	-0.61%	0.11218	+4.19%	0.0426	✗	0.58
2026-07-03	oos	0.11031	0.109486	-0.75%	0.10767	-2.39%	0.0223	✓	0.61
2026-07-02	oos	0.112105	0.111287	-0.73%	0.11031	-1.60%	0.0199	✓	0.66
2026-07-01	oos	0.10732	0.106288	-0.96%	0.112105	+4.46%	0.0374	✗	0.64
2026-06-30	oos	0.11361	0.112225	-1.22%	0.10732	-5.54%	0.0642	✓	0.80
2026-06-29	oos	0.10568	0.104724	-0.90%	0.11361	+7.50%	0.1067	✗	0.91
2026-06-28	oos	0.10167	0.10024	-1.41%	0.10568	+3.94%	0.0425	✗	0.90
2026-06-27	oos	0.08732	0.086797	-0.60%	0.10167	+16.43%	0.1651	✗	0.91
2026-06-26	oos	0.08296	0.082531	-0.52%	0.08732	+5.26%	0.0575	✗	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.08304	0.082609	-0.52%	0.08296	-0.10%	0.0007	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.082775	0.082364	-0.50%	0.08304	+0.32%	0.0294	✗	1.00
2026-06-23	oos	0.08616	0.085713	-0.52%	0.082775	-3.93%	0.0080	✓	1.00
2026-06-22	oos	0.087275	0.086865	-0.47%	0.08616	-1.28%	0.0125	✗	1.00
2026-06-21	oos	0.090795	0.090325	-0.52%	0.087275	-3.88%	0.0456	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.098535	0.097944	-0.60%	0.090795	-7.86%	0.0603	✓	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	0.09513	0.094596	-0.56%	0.098535	+3.58%	0.0291	✗	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	0.09407	0.093575	-0.53%	0.09513	+1.13%	0.0070	✗	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	0.09792	0.097384	-0.55%	0.09407	-3.93%	0.0100	✓	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	0.10043	0.099804	-0.62%	0.09792	-2.50%	0.0011	✓	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	0.102	0.101399	-0.59%	0.10043	-1.54%	0.0004	✓	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	0.10087	0.100258	-0.61%	0.102	+1.12%	0.0086	✗	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	0.10077	0.10018	-0.59%	0.10087	+0.10%	0.0128	✓	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	0.10217	0.101552	-0.60%	0.10077	-1.37%	0.0217	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.10434	0.103637	-0.67%	0.10217	-2.08%	0.0139	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.0986	0.098019	-0.59%	0.10434	+5.82%	0.0286	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.10506	0.104308	-0.72%	0.0986	-6.15%	0.0524	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.11139	0.109986	-1.26%	0.10506	-5.68%	0.0237	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.10365	0.102682	-0.93%	0.11139	+7.47%	0.0852	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.09153	0.090948	-0.64%	0.10365	+13.24%	0.0912	✗	1.00